La Niña Has 79% Chance of Emerging This Winter

Would-be ski prognosticators, start your engines.

According to a recent update from NOAA , the chance of a La Niña developing between August and October is 70%, and the odds that La Niña persists from November through January are 79%.

Scientists declare that a La Niña is in effect when surface water in the eastern and central tropical Pacific becomes cooler than average. The El Niño—the La Niña's counterpart—involves the opposite effect. Together, these differing phases are known as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.

Each ENSO phase impacts winter weather outcomes differently, so they've become guiding lights for skiers hoping to guess who'll get the goods when their favorite season arrives.

La Niña tends to favor cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northern United States and warmer conditions in the South. Heavy precipitation throughout the Pacific Northwest is often part of the deal, too, while other areas, like the Southwest and Southeast, are typically drier.

Therefore, in a standard La Niña year, states like Oregon and Washington are better bets for consistent snowfall.

On NOAA's La Niña outcome map, Washington falls into enviable cool and wet territory, two factors we skiers seek in our hunt for the perfect powder turn. Heavy precipitation without the cold is only good if you're looking to test the effectiveness of your new Gore-Tex coat.

NOAA's historical winter precipitation data suggests further that when La Niña comes to town, the Pacific Northwest is the clear snowfall champion. Those dark green splotches? That's above-average precipitation.

Don't start planning ski trips quite yet, though. In a 2017 article published on NOAA's website, Thomas Di Liberto wrote, "There is a great deal of variability even among strong La Niña events."

Di Liberto explained that during any given winter, La Niña isn't the only player at the table. Other climatic phenomena, like the Arctic Oscillation or the Madden-Julian Oscillation—plus the generally random nature of weather—also impact how our winters pan out. Climate change is another difficult wildcard to pin down.

The unpredictability factor is such that prior to the 2022-2023 season, essentially zero major forecasters , including NOAA, predicted that we were in for a record-breaking snowpocalypse. Many forecasters told us that California, which got buried, was in for a below-average winter snowfall-wise.

However, in defense of the forecasters, they'd likely tell you that missing the long-range mark is normal. Determining what the weather will do months in advance is notoriously challenging.

According to NOAA, ten day or longer forecasts are right about half the time (although long-term, average La Niña winter weather patterns are well-documented). To state the obvious: it's July right now, and we're talking about what mountains might look like in December or January.

Similarly, the arrival of a La Niña this winter isn't a sure bet yet. In a recent NOAA ENSO blog update, Emily Becker wrote that there's about a one in five chance our current ENSO-neutral phase persists into this upcoming winter, replacing the predicted La Niña. The meteorological dice, as usual, are still up in the air.

Related: La Niña Is Coming: Winter '24/'25 Outlook

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