If a foreign nation engages in a plot to assassinate one of your top businessmen, you should probably respond robustly. This is especially true if said plot originates from Russia .
After all, Russian President Vladimir Putin 's government perceives weakness in the same way that a bull shark smells in blood in the water. Namely, as an irresistible invitation for further aggression. Unfortunately, Germany is excusing just such an assassination plot. In doing so, Chancellor Olaf Scholz 's government is again showing its broad unseriousness in the face of Russian aggression.
Germany has made a great deal of its commitment to NATO during this week's summit in Washington The problem is that this commitment remains largely paper thin. As I noted on Tuesday, "While Germany has finally reached the 2% [of GDP NATO minimum defense spending] target (2024 spending of 2.12% of GDP), the just-agreed 2025 budget only provides for a 2.3% increase in defense spending. Germany’s defense minister had called for an 11% boost."
File under case infinity as to why NATO headquarters needs to move further east .
The risks of this milquetoast response to Russian military imperialism are clear. The latest point of concern comes via CNN's reporting on a Russian intelligence plot to assassinate German businessman Armin Papperger. According to Katie Bo Lillis and her colleagues, the United States learned of a Russian plot to eliminate Papperger earlier this year. Washington then warned Berlin so that it could take protective action. Other Western business executives are also said to have been targeted by Russia. The German Embassy in Washington, D.C., declined to comment to CNN.
Germany would have us believe it is taking this threat seriously. The facts suggest otherwise.
For just one example, consider that the Russian ambassador to Germany, Sergey Nechaev is still in his Berlin office. The minimum response to an assassination plot against a German citizen should have been Nechaev's expulsion. That's especially true in light of the Russian intelligence assassination of a German resident in a Berlin park back in 2019. In Papperger's case, however, Germany barely appears to have even complained to Ambassador Nechaev.
The Ambassador must be laughing.
Indeed, he has surely been doing so for a while now. Nechaev was summoned to the German foreign ministry in April after two men were arrested over their plans to attack various facilities in Germany. Showing his disdain for Berlin's mild diplomatic action, Nechaev declared his being summoned as an "open provocation." Nachaev's disdain for Berlin is blatant. Responding to NATO's announcement on Thursday that U.S. missile forces will be rotated through Germany from 2026, Nachaev offered his "hope that the German political elites will reconsider whether such a destructive and dangerous step is advisable."
Nachaev and his government know full well that these missile deployments are NATO countermeasures to Russian intermediate ballistic missile force deployments in Kaliningrad and elsewhere. Those missiles were banned by the Soviet-U.S. Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, but Putin systematically breached the treaty, leading to its collapse a few years back. Still, the Kremlin loves pretending to be the victim of escalation because, as in Germany's case, they rarely get called out for doing so.
The White House is little better than Germany.
A White House National Security Council spokesperson stated that "Russia’s intensifying campaign of subversion is something that we are taking extremely seriously and have been intently focused on over the past few months. The U.S. has been discussing this issue with our NATO Allies, and we are actively working together to expose and disrupt these activities. We have also been clear that Russia’s actions will not deter Allies from continuing to support Ukraine."
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This is weak stuff.
The Russians do not and will never respect the U.s. "discussing this issue." They will respect reprisal action calibrated to what they are doing. This is cultural for Russia: words are worthless; what matters are actions that show appropriate respect, friendly or aggressive, in response to whatever actions Russia first offers. But that isn't happening today. In turn, the Russians will keep trying to kill people, blow up factories, and do whatever else they feel like. And by the time Germany and the U.S. get a grip, they'll likely be doing so on the top of their citizens' body bags.
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