Comet C/2023 A3, known as Tsuchinshan–ATLAS, is at risk of fragmenting before its anticipated close encounter with our planet .
It was initially expected to make a remarkably close approach to Earth on October 12 at a distance of approximately 43.9 million miles. It would have been brighter than Jupiter from Earth but the comet's fate now seems uncertain.
Renowned astronomer Zdenek Sekanina said the comet may disintegrate as it approaches the sun on September 27, when it is expected to be 36.4 million miles away.
The proximity to the sun triggers a process where comets heat up, leading to outgassing and subsequent loss of the dust that forms their distinctive trail or coma. This phenomenon can alter the comet's trajectory, rotation, and velocity.
Additionally, there has been noted a lack of expected brightening in the comet's appearance.
According to Sekanina, the comet 's failure to brighten significantly at a heliocentric distance greater than 2 AU – around 160 days before perihelion – coupled with reduced dust production raises concerns about its integrity.
With characteristics indicating an origin in the Oort cloud, including a thin tail and unconventional shape, the comet faces increased vulnerability as it nears the sun.
Given the distinctive features and behavior of this comet , Sekanina warns that such objects are prone to disintegration when they lack brightness and dust content by the time they reach close proximity to the Sun, similar to Comet C/2023 A3.
Ultimately, he predicts that the comet will likely disperse and cease to exhibit comet-like activity before reaching perihelion.
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