U.S. ports are reaching summer 2022 levels of incoming traffic even as global supply chain challenges rear their ugly heads.
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The ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.08 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in May, up 7.5 percent year over year, generating the most inbound cargo throughput since the 2.26 million TEUs handled in August 2022. The total includes estimates for the Port of New York & New Jersey, which have not reported TEU counts for May.
The flurry of goods comes amid continuously escalating freight rates , unresolved labor negotiations at the East and Gulf Coast ports and lingering capacity and congestion issues from the ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, according to Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“Despite all of that, we’re experiencing the strongest surge in volume we’ve seen in two years, and that’s a good sign for what retailers expect in sales,” Gold said in a statement. “Consumers can rest assured that retailers will be well-stocked and ready to meet demand as we head into the back-to-school and holiday seasons.”
The May numbers tracked slightly higher than the figures reported by container shipping expert John McCown late last month, whose analysis said the top 10 U.S. ports saw a 5.8-percent annual uptick in inbound containers. But the general trends of both reports were in alignment, with McCown’s analysis indicating that the cargo volume entering the country was the most in 21 months, since August 2022.
According to the monthly report compiled by the NRF and maritime trade consultancy Hackett Associates, the May figures are slightly below the preliminary estimates a month ago, when the Global Port Tracker projected an 8.3-percent year-over-year jump in TEUs to 2.09 million.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett explained that attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea have had an impact “beyond earlier expectations,” because of lack of sufficient capacity to make up for longer voyages to avoid the region.
To boot, Hackett acknowledged that political support for higher and broader tariffs on imported goods out of China is expanding. This is an issue that will likely remain prevalent in the months ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
“The risks to global trade growth continue to increase,” Hackett said. “We are in a volatile situation with multiple pressures on the movement of goods, underpinned by continued inflationary pressures.”
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Luckily for the U.S. ports, heavy congestion seen globally haven’t been replicated stateside, even as more cargo continues to move in their direction. Earlier this month, Singapore’s transport minister said congestion had become so commonplace that 90 percent of container ships are arriving at the site later than expected.
Some of the world’s largest seaports have felt the heat of the lengthier transit times, with Singapore experiencing berthing delays lasting as long as seven days last month. According to a blog post from container shipping analytics firm Linerlytica, these delays have improved as of Wednesday, but still involve wait times of as much as three days.
“Port congestion has started to pick up again after recent improvements, with delays at Shanghai worsening over the past week due to bunching of vessel arrivals with wait times of up to four days and up to two days in Ningbo,” the blog post read. “In Southeast Asia, overall congestion levels have been reduced but berthing delays remain at up to three days in Singapore and five days at Port Kelang.”
The only U.S. port currently experiencing any kind of holdup of cargo is the Port of Virginia, which had the sixth-most TEUs (54,317) waiting at anchorage of any port worldwide.
American ports have not yet reported June’s numbers, but the Global Port Tracker projected that volume rose to 2.1 million TEUs, up 14.5 percent year over year. When including the expected June results, the first half of 2024 is expected to total 12.04 million TEUs of inbound cargo, up 14.4 percent from the same period last year.
The tracker released anticipated inbound cargo volumes for the next six months. July is forecast at 2.21 million TEUs, up 15.5 percent year over year, while August is projected to see a 13.5 percent increase to 2.22 million TEUs, which would be the peak of 2024 imports.
In the fall months, ports are expected to see more subdued comparisons from the year prior, with September cargo anticipated to jump 3.5 percent to 2.1 million TEUs. October forecasts project a year-over-year decline in containers of 0.5 percent to 2.05 million TEUs. And in November, inbound cargo volume is estimated to total 1.96 million TEUs, up 3.5 percent annually.
The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 core retail sales—which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants—to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent over 2023.
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