The latest on where abortion ballot measures stand in 11 states

Welcome to the Friday, July 12, Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. The latest on where abortion ballot measures stand in 11 states
2. Three candidates lead in campaign finance and media attention in Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan
3. Did you know Ballotpedia has released three fully interactive legislation trackers?

The latest on where abortion ballot measures stand in 11 states

Voters in six states—Colorado, Florida, Maryland, New York, Nevada, and South Dakota—will decide on abortion-related ballot measures this November. Signature verification is underway in five states: Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana, and Nebraska. Here’s what has transpired over the past two weeks.

• June 28: Election officials certified the most recent abortion measure in Nevada. They verified 128,000 signatures for an initiative that would provide a state constitutional right to an abortion. At least 102,362 valid signatures were required.
• Additionally, campaigns recently submitted signatures for four ballot initiatives in three states: Arizona, Arkansas, and Nebraska.
• July 3: In Arizona, the campaign Arizona for Abortion Access submitted 823,685 signatures for a constitutional amendment that would provide the fundamental right to abortion that the state of Arizona may not interfere with before the point of fetal viability. The measure needs 383,923 verified signatures to qualify for the ballot.
• July 3: In Nebraska, two campaigns submitted signatures for initiatives. Protect Our Rights, a campaign supporting a constitutional amendment establishing the right to an abortion before fetal viability, submitted 207,000 signatures. SBA Pro-Life America, a campaign supporting a constitutional amendment that would prohibit abortions after the first trimester except for certain circumstances, submitted 205,000 signatures. For both initiatives, 124,465 verified signatures are needed to qualify for the ballot.
• July 5: Arkansans for Limited Government submitted about 100,000 signatures for an initiative they are sponsoring in Arkansas. The initiative would amend the state constitution to prohibit laws or policies restricting abortion access within 18 weeks from conception; or in cases of rape, incest, or fatal fetal anomaly; or when abortion is needed to protect the life or health of the mother. The measure needs 90,704 verified signatures to qualify for the ballot.
• July 10: Arkansas election officials rejected the submitted petitions, stating that the campaign failed to provide statements identifying paid canvassers by name and confirming that canvassers were informed about the rules for gathering signatures. Secretary of State John Thurston (R) said that 87,382 signatures came from volunteer signature gatherers. In Arkansas, if a petition does not meet the required number of valid signatures but has at least 75% of the necessary signatures, petitioners have 30 days to gather additional signatures or validate the previously rejected ones.

Signatures are also pending verification for initiatives in Missouri and Montana. In Montana, two organizations backing the abortion initiative filed a lawsuit after it was reported that Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen (R) invalidated certain signatures.

Where have abortion measures been on the ballot since Dobbs?

Following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization U.S. Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, seven abortion-related measures appeared on the ballot.

In 2022, there were six ballot measures addressing abortion—the most on record for a single year. Voters approved measures in California, Michigan, and Vermont. Voters defeated measures in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. The most recent abortion-related ballot measure voters passed was Ohio Issue 1, which voters approved in November 2023.

Looking beyond abortion-related measures

As of July 9, 125 statewide ballot measures have been certified for the ballot in 37 states. An average of 128 measures were certified at this point between 2012 and 2022. An average of 157 statewide ballot measures were on the ballot in even-numbered years from 2012 to 2022.

Three candidates lead in campaign finance and media attention in Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan

Throughout the year, we’ll bring you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan on Aug. 6.

Four candidates are running: Justin Amash (R), Sherry O’Donnell (R), Sandy Pensler (R), and Mike Rogers (R). Amash, a former House member, Pensler, a private investor and financial advisor, and Rogers, also a former House member, lead in campaign finance and media attention. Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D), who was first elected in 2000, is not running for re-election.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter’s Jessica Taylor told The Detroit News that “Rogers is still the favorite just given his experience in the state and that he does have the Trump endorsement, and this money that the Great Lakes Conservatives Fund (super PAC) is spending is hammering that home.” Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales also told the outlet that “Rogers is a known commodity in Washington, D.C., but he can’t assume that voters remember him from his time in Congress representing a fraction of the state. He still has work to do to introduce or reintroduce himself to voters and make the case that he’s the best person to win this seat.”

Amash has run social media ads criticizing Rogers’ past support of government programs such as The Patriot Act and the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Pensler has condemned both Rogers’ previous work with companies such as AT&T, which had partnered with Chinese firms in the past, and his handling of a probe into the 2012 Benghazi terror attack, which military contractors have alleged differs from what they experienced on the ground.

As of July 9, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the general election Lean Democratic. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rated the general election Tilt Democratic, while Decision Desk HQ and The Hill rated it Toss-up.

Amash represented Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District from 2011 to 2021. His professional experience included working as a lawyer at Varnum LLP and as a legal consultant for Michigan Industrial Tools. Amash said he is running because “We need a principled, consistent constitutional conservative in the Senate—someone with a record of taking on the bipartisan oligarchy, defending sound money and free speech, fighting the surveillance state and military-industrial complex, and protecting all our rights.” The Detroit Free Press endorsed Amash.

Pensler is a private investor and financial advisor. He also founded the investment firm Pensler Capital and four manufacturing plants. Pensler said his finance and business background would help him represent Michigan in the Senate: “I am a seasoned and successful business person. I bring an economic outlook and a hard-nosed approach to problems. I want the job but, because I’m not a professional politician, I don’t need the job. Everyone else that’s running is not in that position.” Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) endorsed Pensler.

Rogers represented Michigan’s 8th Congressional District from 2001 to 2015. His professional experience included working as a special agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He also worked in talk radio and cybersecurity. Rogers said he decided to run because of the state of the government: “I thought I put politics behind me. But like you, I know something’s broken.” Rogers also said his experience in the U.S. House would help him in the Senate. Former President Donald Trump (R) endorsed Rogers.

This is one of 10 U.S. Senate races we are covering as a battleground primary. We are also covering 12 Senate races as battleground generals.

Of the 33 regularly scheduled Senate elections in 2024, Republicans hold 10 seats, Democrats hold 19, and independents who caucus with Democrats hold four.

Did you know Ballotpedia has released three fully interactive legislation trackers? These trackers allow you to explore and monitor bills related to state election laws, the administrative state, and most recently, artificial intelligence (AI) deepfakes.