Claim:
A meme graphic accurately compares various economic indicators under Trump and Biden.
Rating:
False ( About this rating? )
Context:
A detailed analysis of the numbers in the meme showed they were either impossible to compare or incorrect.
In late June and early July 2024, a graphic circulated online purporting to compare various economic indicators under U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump:
https://www.facebook.com/antoniotjr/posts/pfbid0GPRBgnzuP3oTANQveeRG1m1WLbYUkD1p9dkP695Jtf7hX3v6Q1w9xriDnKMgkRvHl
This post had gained 5,500 reactions, 6,400 comments and 232,000 shares, as of this writing. The same graphic appeared on X , Reddit and even LinkedIn , the social network for professionals where experts recommend that users refrain from sharing political posts. It was also reposted by the Facebook page for the Richmond County Republican Party in North Carolina. It came to our attention when we received dozens of emails asking us to verify the numbers.
We checked and compared each element of this graphic and broke it down as follows:
Inflation
The numbers presented in the meme were not comparable because they did not refer to the same measure of inflation. The number in the Trump column (1.9%) seemed to refer to the annualized inflation rate — the increase in the cost of life in the preceding 12 months — in both August 2017 or March 2019, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number in the Biden column appeared to refer to the cumulative inflation rate — the increase in the cost of life from the moment Biden took office up to a moment in time — in September 2023. To make it a fair comparison, we might compare either annualized inflation rates for the eight month or 26th month of each presidency, or the cumulative inflation rate two years and nine months into each presidency, as follows:
Regardless of which measure one might choose to look at, it is undeniable that inflation under Biden was higher than it was under Trump. Hyperinflation is often tied to an economy that grows very fast, however. As we have reported before, other economic indicators showed that the economy under Biden was strong .
Gas Prices
Assuming the makers of the graphic were referring to monthly average gasoline prices per gallon, we spotted that they had used the the average price per gallon of $2.17 in June 2020, as most of the world was immobilized by the COVID-19 pandemic. They compared it with $3.96, the average cost per gallon in September 2023. The cost was high in August and September 2023, with the increase "caused by more relative demand for gasoline at the end of the summer driving season, combined with lower refinery production amid seasonal maintenance and low inventories," according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration .
A fair comparison might look a the price peaks and lows under each administration and the reasons behind them, as gas prices are far more influenced by global events than than domestic ones. Under Trump, the oil price peaked on at $2.94 in May 2019 as "global refinery throughput in May was at its lowest level in two years on maintenance and unplanned outages," according to the International Energy Agency , even as demand dropped. The price per gallon of gas under Biden peaked at $5.03 in June 2022, following the prices of crude barrels at that time, which reached nearly $120 . Russian exports of oil had dropped four months into the country's war against Ukraine, also according to the IEA .
Average Rent
The government does not track rent, though it does track shelter among other goods in the basket on which it calculates the Consumer Price Index, the base of inflation calculations. To verify the rent numbers in the meme, however, we needed to use a different metric, as the CPI is not calculated in a dollar amount . The first number, $1,096, was close to the median rent of $1,097 in 2019, according to official statistics by the Census' American Community Survey , whose data comes with a time lag. The most recent data is from 2022, when the median gross rent was of $1,300, according to the ACS website . "Median" means an average calculated after removing outliers at the low and high end. Given that there is no ACS data for 2023 or 2024, it is impossible to compare. We looked for the source of the other number — a supposed average rent of $2,395 under Biden — and we weren't able to find it, which made that comparison impossible.
Instead, for a fair comparison, we pulled data from the real estate marketplace Zillow , which puts together a monthly " smoothed measure of typical observed market rate rent " across the U.S. It is an imperfect measure, as not all residences are advertised for rental on the site, but it is more up-to-date. According to Zillow's database, typical rent was as follows:
- In January 2017, when Trump took office, the typical rent was at $1,354.57. It went up to $1,550.38 in December 2020, the last full month Trump was president — an increase of 14.46% in four years.
- In January 2021, when Biden took office, the typical rent was at $1,557.31. It went up to $2,036.15 in May 2024, the last month for which Zillow provided data as of this writing — an increase of 30.75% in three years and five months.
This rise under Biden was an indirect consequence of inflation. As it accelerated, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates , which made mortgages more expensive. The result was that more prospective buyers turned to rentals, increasing demand for them, which pushed up the cost of rentals.
NASDAQ
The meme claimed that the NASDAQ, one of the U.S.' most-followed stock indices, rose 62% under Trump and 13.8% under Biden. Looking at its historical data , we found that the index was at 5,555.33 on the day Trump took office. It rose to 13,197.18 on the last full day he was president, a 137.56% increase in four years. On Biden's inauguration day, the index was at 13,457.25. As of this writing, the index was at 18,283.41, a 35.86% increase in three years and six months. The numbers in the meme were incorrect.
Grocery Prices
The CPI's basket of goods includes a measure for "food at home" — i.e., groceries. The BLS keeps track of it independently. In January 2017 when Trump took office, this index was at 237.072. It rose to 252.495 in January 2021, the last month of his presidency, a 6.5% increase. This index was at 305.465 in June 2024, the last month for which we had data as of this writing, showing that the cost of groceries had risen 21% under Biden. The numbers in the meme were incorrect.
Electricity
For an accurate measure of electricity costs, we looked at electricity prices per kilowatt-hour according to BLS records. Those were at $0.134 in January 2017 when Trump took office, going up to $0.136 in January 2021, when Biden took office. This represented an increase of 1.5%, though the between the two dates, the prices fluctuated, peaking at $0.143 in July 2017. The prices remained in that range in 2021, the first year of Biden's term, and began to rise in 2022 as Russia invaded Ukraine, putting pressure on energy prices across the world. In June 2024, the price of electricity per kilowatt per hour had risen to $0.174, an increase of 30.9%. The numbers in the meme were incorrect.
Real Average Hourly Earnings
Real average hourly earnings — which are adjusted for inflation — were $10.65 in January 2017, when Trump took office, going up to $11.43 in January 2021, a 7.3% increase. In June 2024, they were at $11.18 , a 2.1% drop that can be explained by the rising cost of life, which outpaced the increased rate of income. The numbers on the meme were incorrect.
Sources:
'12-Month Percentage Change, Consumer Price Index, Selected Categories'. Bureau of Labor Statistics , https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm . Accessed 12 July 2024.
Average Rental Price in US & Market Trends | Zillow Rental Manager . https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/united-states/ . Accessed 12 July 2024.
'Bureau of Labor Statistics Data'. Bureau of Labor Statistics , https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/APU000072610?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true . Accessed 12 July 2024.
Bureau, US Census. 'Search Results'. The United States Census Bureau , https://www.census.gov/search-results.html . Accessed 12 July 2024.
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average . 11 July 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL .
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food at Home in U.S. City Average . 11 July 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11 .
Federal Funds Effective Rate . 1 July 2024, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS .
'Housing Data'. Zillow , https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ . Accessed 12 July 2024.
In 2023, U.S. Annual Average Retail Gasoline Prices Were 40 Cents a Gallon Lower than 2022 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) . https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61162 . Accessed 12 July 2024.
NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) Historical Data . https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/index/comp/historical?page=1&rows_per_page=10&timeline=y10 .
'Oil Market Report - July 2022 – Analysis'. IEA , 13 July 2022, https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-july-2022 .
'Oil Market Report - June 2019 – Analysis'. IEA , 14 June 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-june-2019 .
Rascouët-Paz, Anna. 'Best US Economy in 50 Years?' Snopes , 14 June 2024, https://www.snopes.com//news/2024/06/14/us-economy-best-50-years/ .
REAL EARNINGS – JANUARY 2021 . U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 10 Feb. 2021, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_02102021.pdf .
REAL EARNINGS –JANUARY 2017 . U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 15 Feb. 2017, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/realer_02152017.pdf .
'Real Earnings News Release - 2024 M06 Results'. Bureau of Labor Statistics , https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.htm . Accessed 12 July 2024.
Residential Rent Statistics for the United States | Department of Numbers . https://www.deptofnumbers.com/rent/us/ . Accessed 12 July 2024.
U.S. All Grades All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon) . https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m . Accessed 12 July 2024.
WTI Crude Oil Prices - 10 Year Daily Chart . https://www.macrotrends.net/2516/wti-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart . Accessed 12 July 2024.
Most Popular
Comments / 0