Minnesota Republicans say chaos within the Democratic Party over the fate of President Joe Biden is pushing the historically blue state closer to the GOP in time for the Republican National Convention .
In the weeks following Biden’s poor debate performance, several swing-state seats and battleground states have leaned more in favor of Republicans and former President Donald Trump , who is seeking a rematch of the 2020 election. Sabato’s Crystal Ball found on July 3 that Minnesota and Michigan Electoral College ratings shifted , the second time in less than a month that the outlet downgraded Democrats.
In Minnesota, the race has shifted from likely Democratic to lean Democratic. The Gopher State has been won by Democrats for over 50 years, with Democrats regarding it low on their list of priorities when it comes to campaigning. However, this year, with Democrats in disarray and Republicans finally united behind Trump, Minnesota is more in play than it has been in years.
Aaron Farris, RNC delegate for Minnesota and GOP chairman of the state’s 1st Congressional District, told the Washington Examiner that a large portion of the shift can be attributed to the Democrats telling “big lies” about Biden’s mental state.
“This isn't an issue that just popped up on the debate night in the last week of June,” Farris said about Biden. “This has been a problem for months and years. The Democrats have told Americans for, like I said, years, ‘Don't believe your lying eyes. Don't believe what your eyes are showing you. Everything's fine. There's no fire.’ And clearly, we know that has not been the case.”
He also pointed to the Democratic agenda in the Minnesota legislature regarding education, combined with national Democrats’ approach to inflation and border security, as reasons why the state could be trending red.
“I think those are part of the reasons Minnesota is coming into play this year, just simply because of the state of Minnesota and the country right now,” Farris said. “It’s tough, and people recognize that.”
Outside of Washington, D.C., Minnesota holds the longest Democratic streak in the country, last voting Republican for Richard Nixon in 1972. Since 1976, Democrats have won 11 straight presidential elections. But in 2016, Democrats were surprised when Hillary Clinton won by a razor-thin margin: 1.5% over Trump. Biden went on to more easily carry the state by 7 percentage points over Trump in 2020.
Minnesota Republican strategist Amy Koch told the Washington Examiner that for the last few decades, Republicans held a mindset of “Why are you bothering?” with trying to flip the state. However, when Trump barely lost to Clinton in 2016, GOP pundits realized a Republican win was in their grasp if they worked hard for it.
“If Trump had picked those folks up, and I think he’s said rightfully over and over, that he feels like if he'd have spent more time in Minnesota, he would have won Minnesota,” Koch said, referring to the votes that went to other third-party candidates in the state. “I agree with him.”
She acknowledged that Koch said Minnesota goes through “snapbacks.” It wasn’t until 2010 that Republicans were turning strongholds of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, Minnesota’s Democratic Party. However, in the years after, Democrats were able to gain a trifecta with the state legislature and governor’s mansion.
"While I think [Minnesota’s] in play, it’s not an easy play for them," Koch said. "It’s not going to be as easy as 2016.”
However, the spirit of the 2016 election is alive and well in Minnesota, according to former Minnesota state Rep. Kelly Fenton and current RNC delegate. She said what gives her confidence for cross-country GOP victories is the way the Republican Party is rallying behind the former president.
“I've been on the ballot with Trump and I won, and I've been on the ballot with Trump, and I lost,” Fenton told the Washington Examiner.
“What I'm seeing right now in 2024 is 2016 presidential energy, and that gives me great hope because I know how well Republicans did with that type of energy,” Fenton added. “There's a bunch of factors in play. You've got people who are concerned about Biden. You have the Democrat Party becoming more and more fractured. Some want Biden to step down. Others don't."
At the same time, Fenton said, “You see a very different campaign from Trump.”
“You see his numbers getting better and better, and the unity of the people, I think, is significant on what Nikki Haley did ... urging all of her supporters to get behind Trump,” Fenton said. “So I just think that the energy, to me, in 2024 feels very similar in 2016, and we made great strides as Republicans in 2016 in the state of Minnesota. ... That gives me great hope for taking back Minnesota.”
Fenton began as an RNC delegate for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who suspended her campaign in March. Haley released her delegates on Tuesday, encouraging her supporters to vote for Trump at the convention.
AK Kamara, RNC national committeeman-elect for Minnesota and an RNC delegate, told the Washington Examiner that Haley releasing her delegates is another way to show how the Republican and Democratic parties differ.
“It’s just another ... step in the right direction of unity while the Democrats are in complete disarray and disunity,” Kamara said.
Fenton said Haley’s move to release the delegates “exudes the move of a leader."
Democratic pundits and strategists, as well as some vulnerable Democrats, have expressed concerns over the last two weeks that Biden is a liability for down-ballot candidates . Democrats are working in overdrive to try to take back the House and maintain the Senate and White House, but the slow leak of House Democrats calling on Biden to step down has caused all eyes to be on the president to see how he operates on the campaign trail.
In the case of Minnesota, Koch noted that if they aren’t careful, Biden’s campaign will make the same mistake Clinton made in 2016 by treating the state as a given blue stronghold.
“Hillary severely underperformed Obama in the state of Minnesota, and I think that's the problem for the Biden campaign: severe underperformance,” the strategist said. “And that kind of thing can really be setbacks in a state like Minnesota.”
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Koch added that the vigor behind electing Biden in 2020 was different than the desire to reelect him now.
“You know, four years ago, and even in ‘18 and 2022, right, It was all sort of like, against Trump. It wasn't — 2020 wasn't about like, 'Yay Biden,' but it was like, ‘We must vote against the current president.’ I don't feel that energy as strongly,” the strategist said.
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