What is the future for humans on our planet?
During the 20th century, growth, coupled with industrialization, has resulted in devastating climate changes and damage to animal and plant life but has fueled growth in economies, jobs and technological advances. Estimates are the global population passed 8 billion in 2022, and could peak at 9.7 billion by 2064.
Will human population continue to explode, resulting in economic growth but increasing the dangers of famines, wars, and global destruction of nature? Or over the next century will we see plummeting and aging populations?
On July 18, the Columbia Basin Badger Club will offer a fascinating online forum on these issues with Dr. Darrell Bricker, chief executive officer of Ipsos Public Affairs, the world’s leading social and opinion research firm.
Beginning in about 1950, global fertility rates (babies per woman) fell dramatically. Statistical analysis concludes that a minimum fertility rate of 2.1 per woman is required to maintain a stable population size. Between 1950 and 2021, the global fertility rate per woman fell from 4.8 to 2.2.
Predictions are that by 2100, 183 of the 195 countries will have total fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.1. China had a population of 1.4 billion in 2022, making it the largest country in the world. Then the population began to decline. The United Nations projects that without a major increase in fertility rates China’s population will drop to 1.3 billion by 2050 and to only 770 million by 2100.
Japan and South Korea have even worse projections, and in the United States the fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 and the Census Bureau expects that deaths will exceed births by 2038. Without continued immigration, our population would begin to decrease by 2042.
Shrinking and aging populations lead to smaller workforces, and larger burdens on health and social support systems. Already our aging population has resulted in projections of our Social Security system going bankrupt by 2033.
Why are mothers having fewer babies today? Are there any actions governments can take to reverse the trend? China, Japan, and South Korea have spent billions trying to encourage women to have more babies through cash subsidies, childcare services and infertility treatment but without success.
What are the ramifications, pros and cons, for the United States and can anything be done to ease the economic and quality of life impacts?
In 2019, Bricker and his co-author John Ibbitson, published their book Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline. Since then, there have been an ever-increasing number of books, studies, newspaper, and magazine articles on the subject.
Prior to joining Ipsos, Bricker was director of public opinion research in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He holds a Ph.D in political science from Carleton University and lives in Toronto with his wife Nina and daughter Emily.
You can register for this event, which will include a Q&A session, at columbiabasinbadgers.com to receive a confirmation and links to join the Zoom forum and a half-hour “Table Talk” open-mic session afterward. Cost is $5 for nonmembers, while club members can join for free.
David Larkin is a retired nuclear engineering manager and a member of the Badger Club program committee. He spent his 41-year career at N Reactor and then Energy Northwest, operator of the Columbia Generating Station at Hanford.
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