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2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds, lineup, predictions, time: Model gives surprising NASCAR at Pocono picks
By CBS Sports Staff,
3 days ago
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Just a half-dozen races remain in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season, starting with the 2024 Great American Getaway 400. The race takes place on Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET from Pocono Raceway in northeastern Pennsylvania. Joe Gibbs Racing has dominated this track recently, as JGR enters 2024 NASCAR at Pocono with six victories over the last seven July races at the track. Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch each collected three of those wins, with Chase Elliott (2022) the lone non-Joe Gibbs Racing driver to win since 2017.
The latest Great American Getaway 400 odds list Hamlin as the 17-4 favorite. Kyle Larson, who tops the Cup Series standings but finished 39th on Chicago's Street Race last week, is at 5-1, while a pair of JGR drivers in Christopher Bell and Martin Truex are at 15-2. Busch, who now races for Richard Childress Racing, is a 20-1 longshot to utilize in 2024 NASCAR at Pocono bets. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Pocono predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Great American Getaway 400 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model .
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure's model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.'s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano's Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch's Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin's triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson's wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin's wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson's wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
For the 2024 NASCAR at Pocono race, the model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds. Outside of a 24th-place finish in 2022, Keselowski has placed in the top 10 of the final NASCAR standings in each of the last seven years. He's in position to do so again this year thanks to a victory at Darlington and seven top 10s. Just two drivers have notched more top 10s than Keselowski, who also has a Pocono victory on his resume from back in 2011.
Despite just one win, few have mastered this triangular oval track quite like Keselowski, whose career average finish is 10.9. That ranks second amongst all drivers (min. five starts), and he's posted 11 top 10s at the track over his last 15 appearances. Over 40% of his 26 NASCAR at Pocono starts have resulted in top-5 finishes, and by comparison, four-time Pocono winner Busch has just over 30% of his starts at the track resulting in top 5s. Keselowski is an absolute steal at his current odds, so you shouldn't hesitate to use him in 2024 NASCAR at Pocono bets.
Another massive shocker: Hamlin, the Vegas favorite at 17-4, barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Pocono starting lineup. Hamlin thought he'd captured a record-breaking seventh win at Pocono in 2022 after taking the checkered flag at the M&M's Fan Appreciation 400 but was later disqualified for failing a technical inspection.
It was a massive statement from NASCAR in the new era of the Next-Gen Car and Hamlin would rebound to win at Pocono in 2023. However, he's been struggling of late and hasn't collected a top-10 finish in his last five NASCAR Cup Series starts. He's also finished outside the top 20 in six of his last 12 starts and that's a big reason why the model is shying away, even at Pocono. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine .
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Pocono picks
The model is also targeting one other driver with 2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine .
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