The Great Flood of 2023: One year later

NOTE: Most of this article was written prior to this past week's flood. This article was delayed to allow for coverage of the most recent flood. There have been modifications to this article in places to acknowledge the most recent flood.

"The Wrightsville dam is approaching capacity and may need to be released to avoid a failure. This would cause even worse flooding in Montpelier. The city is just about cutoff, so evacuation options are very limited for anyone still in the city. Officials told anyone in the city that their best bet at this point would be to head to the highest level of your home or building."

The above paragraph is how New England Storm Center concluded our initial "storm coverage" article on the 2023 Vermont floods published on July 11, 2023. Over the two days leading up to that article, a large portion of Vermont received 4-8+ inches of rain. When the rain had finally stopped falling late on July 11th, the National Weather Service had issued a total of 17 river flood warnings, 16 flash flood warnings, 8 flood warnings and 1 flash flood emergency for Vermont.

IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH

As the worst of the rains were beginning to subside on July 11th, Mike Cannon of Vermont Urban Search & Rescue stated that well over 100 rescues had been performed across the state, along with around 80 road closures around Vermont. A disaster was declared immediately with a major disaster declaration from FEMA coming just three days after the floods. It's usually weeks after a disaster that FEMA approves a major declaration, but the severity of these floods helped streamline the process.

Photo byNational Weather Service

Many towns sent status reports to Vermont Emergency Management in the days following the rains, but some towns were so hard hit that the National Guard had to be sent in to get contact. Many mountain towns were completely cut off as all roads leading to and from them were washed out. The Wrightsville Dame in Montpelier came precariously close to reaching capacity on the morning of July 11th, coming within three feet of needing to be discharged, which would have caused a very dangerous situation for the city.

The Winooski River in Montpelier rose to its second highest level on record, with only the Great Flood of 1927 seeing a higher level. The river rose two feet above Irene's level in 2011. The Lamoille River rose four feet above Irene's level, breaking the all-time record in Jeffersonville. The river came within three feet of this mark during last week's floods. By the morning of July 11th, seven rivers were in major flood stage across Vermont with over 20 rivers at flood stage across New England.

One impact outside of the flooding that was pushed to the back burner was landslides. After the floods, Vermont state geologists documented 70 separate slope failures or landslides around the state. One of the worst landslides occurred near Route 62 in Barre. A slope gave way, crashing into the street below, pushing and flipping cars. In Ludlow, a large gorge formed under a railway.

Landslide on Route 62 in BarrePhoto byWCVB

'THE EPICENTER'

That one flash flood emergency was the first such alert ever issued in Vermont since the alert was debuted by the National Weather Service in 2014. The alert was issued for Weston, Ludlow, Andover and Bridgewater. Ludlow would prove to be one of the hardest hit towns in the state. Brandon McNamara, Ludlow's town manager stated simply "the same, if not worse" when asked about this storm in relation to Irene in 2011.

Heading toward the one year anniversary, McNamara stated "I'm not going to lie, it's still a struggle right now, a year out, we still have a long-term recovery. Things that we're dealing with, really trying to get our community back better." A year later, many businesses remain closed, some have been demolished. Others have been able to come back after community members banded together. The Okemo Marketplace was among the hardest hit areas in the northeast after a rush of feet of water and mud rushed into the shopping center.

Among the businesses in the marketplace is Darkside Snowboards. After the flood, it took Billy Langlands, owner of the shop, three days just to get to the shop in person. He initially found out about the flood damage by seeing the shopping center on TV. By sheer resilience and teamwork, Darkside was able to reopen around Thanksgiving, in time for the winter season.

Community members (and non-community members alike) were able to get the shop back up and running. Langlands said:

"We had people show up to help us clean the place out, people we didn’t even know. A kid who worked for me years ago, he lived in Cape Cod, and he came up four weeks in a row."

Work begins on removing mud and debris from the Okemo Marketplace in July 2023.Photo byWCVB

CONTINUED RAIN

Historic Vermont flooding will always be compared to previous events. With Irene occurring just 12 years before this flood, the two events naturally got compared to each other. While the setups for Irene and the 2023 floods were very different, the outcomes were rather similar: a widespread 4-8 inches of rain leading to catastrophic flooding. One of the biggest differences with Irene was that in 2011, the tropical storm was more of a done and done scenario.

While June 2011 was far wetter than average, July was drier, and it had been a rather dry stretch leading up to the storm. In 2023, several flooding events took place, not just in Vermont, but across New England, throughout the summer and into the winter. Vermont's major disaster declaration covered July 7th to the 21st, in which the Great Flood was sandwiched between other events. On July 7th, a severe weather outbreak occurred in Vermont along a cold front that would eventually stall out, contributing to the Great Flood.

Another severe thunderstorm outbreak was looming for New England on July 13th. More downpours came on July 14th. Another major flash flooding event took place on July 16th for Massachusetts and New Hampshire, though this event largely spared Vermont. Flood watches were posted for much of New England, including all of Vermont, on July 17th for a July 18th cold front. It goes on, with more heavy rain events having taken place in August.

Photo byNortheast Regional Climate Center

On top of this, another catastrophic flooding event for New England took place in the middle of December, this time with Maine as the epicenter. A powerful cyclone dropped 3-6 inches of rain across New England, with 2-4 inches falling across Vermont. While Vermont did see some flooding and evacuations during this storm, Maine saw record breaking river flooding with multiple rivers reaching all-time high levels. The USGS called this storm the second worst flooding in Maine's history.

And, of course, the serious flash flooding that just occurred directly on the one year anniversary of this major flooding event that caused renewed street closures, washouts, evacuations and damage.

'THE ONLY GROCERY STORE'

By the one month mark, only four state routes remained completely closed. The state completed 20 miles of new paving and installed upwards of 7,000 feet of new guardrails. The state had identified over 1,100 sites of damage on roads and bridges along with over 800 damaged culverts.

In the hard hit small town of Johnson, critical services were knocked out after the floods. The town's post office was inundated and closed. The office began to work out of a van in a nearby parking lot. The public library was gutted, the town's only official grocery store was destroyed. The wastewater treatment plant in town was knocked offline.

In the months after the flooding, these services began to return in one way or another. The post office building reopened in December. In late summer, the public library opened a temporary location in the basement of a Masonic Lodge. A new library building will need to be built. The wastewater treatment plant came back online within six weeks of the floods, but the offices at the plant remain gutted. The town is still in discussions about relocating the plant to higher ground.

The town's only grocery store, the Sterling Market, was heavily damaged and will not reopen. In February, the grocery chain Shaw's was reported to be "strongly exploring" the possibility of opening a market in the town. The nearest grocery store for Johnson residents is in Morrisville. For residents without cars who worked along Main Street, this has been an issue as a grocer is no longer within walking distance.

Sterling Market after the floods.Photo bySterling Market

Much of Johnson's Main Street was heavily affected by the storm. A local resident told Vermont Public Radio three months after the floods: "I realized where I bought my car, the bank, where I get my hair cut, and also the post office as well as the supermarket, all gone. Conveniences you don't really realize you have in a small town, right?"

As for Johnson, the town is wondering whether or not downtown should remain where it is, as this was not the first time the town has flooded in the last 20, or even 10 years. In last week's floods, the Lamoille River again rose to major flood stage, though it crested four feet lower than last July's floods. Mark Woodward, a member of the town's select board said last week:

"Three out of our top five flooding events happened within the last year. I think that last year's flood helped us immensely be prepared for this year's flood."

FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING

The floods took a serious toll on farms across the state. Many farmers had to rely on grants and donations to survive both crop loss and damage to machinery and infrastructure. Farms suffered major crop and animal losses during last year's flood. According to the Vermont Recovery Agriculture Task Force, farms suffered $69 million dollars in agriculture losses in 2023. This is all together, when combining the continued rainfall throughout the summer.

Maple Wind farm in Richmond lost a total of 400 turkeys last year. According to the owner of the farm, many of the turkeys suffered hypothermia in the cold waters and could no longer swim. The farm staff did manage to save 120 turkeys from the waters by canoe. Farms were struck hard again with this past week's flooding as well. The total cost to farms this time around won't fully be known for at least a little while.

A flooded Vermont farm in July 2023.Photo byVermont Public

Vermont's capital city of Montpelier was hit hard by both flash flooding and river flooding at the same time. This came as the Winooski River rose to major flood stage while rain continued to pour down onto the city. This led to downtown becoming heavily inundated. Shortly after the flood, massive piles of flood damaged debris lined Main Street.

Immediately after the storm subsided, the situation in Montpelier deteriorated. Downtown was already heavily inundated as the water levels rose at the nearby Wrightsville Dam Reservoir to within a foot from reaching capacity. Water levels at this dam had never gotten this high since the dam was built in 1935. Early in the morning of July 11th, the City of Montpelier posted this message:

"Potentially dangerous situation...If water exceeds capacity [at the Wrightsville Dam], the first spillway will release water into the North Branch River. This has never happened since the dam was built so there is no precedent for potential damage. There would be a large amount of water coming into Montpelier which would drastically add to the existing flood damage. This will be particularly bad along the North Branch River corridor and into the downtown. Unfortunately, there are very few evacuation options remaining. People in at-risk areas may wish to go to upper floors in their houses."

Fortunately, the Wrightsville Dam was not breached. Once downtown Montpelier dried up, thousands of volunteers descended onto the city to help clean up. As of July 2024, 90% of downtown businesses have reopened, according to the executive director of Montpelier Alive. Despite this, it was also noted that downtown is still seeing a reduction of foot traffic.

Volunteers work to clean up near the Winooski River.Photo byCharles Krupa/AP

SUMMER 2024

Unfortunately, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl dropped 4-7 inches of rain on northern and central Vermont on the exact one year anniversary of this historic flood. This renewed flood caused setbacks for some communities in northern and central Vermont. Shortly after last week's flood, volunteer groups that formed in the wake of the 2023 flood immediately stepped up and began helping those in need.

Communities such as Barre, Moretown, Johnson and Plainfield were hit hard and saw some familiar scenes such as streets turning to rivers with some eventually collapsing and a thick layer of mud and sediment in need of being dug out.

A common phrase heard during recovery from both the 2023 floods and the 2024 floods is "build back better." One year after the historic July 2023 floods, seven months after the December cyclone and several days after the July 2024 floods (with other smaller floods between those three), the question of how to build back better is at the forefront of recovery.

One such "build back better" measure is to not rebuild properties in high risk flood zones. Since the 2023 floods, an organization was formed called RIVER: Resilience Initiative for Vermont Empowerment and Recovery. This organization currently has active projects ongoing in nearly 20 communities across the state. A big project partially funded by RIVER are buyouts.

In Barre alone, the city is pursuing over 50 buyouts to try to restore the floodplain. Buyouts are used to prevent homes and businesses from being rebuilt in an area that will flood again. Many communities are looking into where to rebuild housing in lower risk areas to allow the natural floodplain to be restored.

Vermont's unique topography and extreme rainfall events make for a bad combination. The July 2023 & 2024 floods, while bad, will not be the last floods like them in the state, or in New England.