Arizona's strong monsoon thunderstorms continue into Monday afternoon

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Monday, July 15, 2024, more isolated to scattered thunderstorms will impact the state. The intensity will likely bring severe weather with strong convective gusts, hail potential, and localized flooding.

Model data indicating potential thunderstorms on Monday 15 Jul 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

As the upper-level high shifts eastward, it provides an exhaust mechanism coupled with a significantly unstable atmosphere, especially in Southern Arizona on Monday. Additionally, the Gulf of California is pumping in low-level moisture, fueling the strong thunderstorm activity. The stability indices are in the CAPE 2,800 to 3,200 range, LI in the -7 to -8 range, and positive hail indicators strongly suggest that severe potential is in the offering for Monday afternoon. For Gila, Graham, Eastern Pima, Cochise, and Santa Cruz Counties, strong gusty winds greater than 60 mph, over one-inch hail, and local flooding are likely between 2 pm and 8 pm. This could have a significant impact, so please stay safe and prepared.

Additionally, thunderstorms are likely over northern Yavapai and southern Coconino counties. The instability indices are lower in these two counties, but severe parameters in the late afternoon hours are still possible. As always, please be sure to monitor your local radar, be aware of local NWS warnings, and be careful when driving in thunderstorm conditions.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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