Stocks, Treasury yields gain as odds of Trump win increase

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) -World stock indexes and Treasury yields rose on Monday as investors weighed the prospect of Republican Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential race after he survived an assassination attempt, while the dollar dipped after comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Longer-dated U.S. bond yields climbed on the assumption that Trump policies would add to government debt and inflation, while crypto stocks rallied along with bitcoin. Trump has presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency.

Investors have viewed a Trump win as likely to mean more tax cuts and a looser regulatory environment. The S&P 500 energy sector gained 1.6%.

On online betting website PredictIt, contracts for a Trump election victory traded at 68 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday, with a potential payout of $1. Contracts for a Biden victory were at 26 cents.

The assassination attempt in Pennsylvania on Saturday of Trump appeared to improve his chances for election. The motive behind a 20-year-old gunman's attempt on the life of Trump remained a mystery, with the suspect having been killed and the FBI unable to determine an ideology that may have been behind the attack.

"The publicity around the event is providing some kind of a boost," said Josh Wein, portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds.

But, he said, "the last four, five days the (stock) market has been rallying... so it's a continuation of a strong move from the back half of last week since we realized that maybe there is some reason to celebrate the idea that there could be one and now likely two rate cuts by the end of the year."

Investors digested comments from Powell, who said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter of this year do "add somewhat to confidence" that the pace of price increases is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion.

Traders are also pricing in a second and possible third rate cut by December.

While all three major U.S. stock indexes ended well below session highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched an all-time closing high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.82 points, or 0.53%, to 40,211.72, the S&P 500 gained 15.87 points, or 0.28%, to 5,631.22 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 74.12 points, or 0.40%, to 18,472.57.

Shares of Goldman Sachs gained 2.6% after the company reported quarterly results. More results are expected week for the second-quarter U.S. earnings season.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe rose 0.18 points, or 0.02%, to 828.73. The STOXX 600 index fell 1.02%.

Dour updates from British luxury group Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer confidence.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last down 0.04% to 104.25, with the euro down 0.01% at $1.0893. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar strengthened 0.02% to 158.04.

The greenback fell to 157.15 as Powell spoke, its lowest since June 17, before rebounding.

Bitcoin was last up slightly after it reached a three-week high earlier of $63,838.86.

Benchmark 10-year yields rose 4 basis points to 4.229%, while two-year yields fell half a basis point to 4.4554%.

Oil prices were down slightly, with worries about demand in top importer China offseting support from OPEC+ supply restraint and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

U.S. crude lost 30 cents to settle at $81.91 a barrel and Brent fell 18 cents to $84.85.

(Additional reporting by Isla Binnie in New York, Iain Withers in London and and by Lisa Mattackal and Ankika Biswas in Bengaluru and by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Jamie Freed, Arun Koyyur, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham and Tomasz Janowski)