Did Donald Trump just win the election? | Arwa Mahdawi

You’ve almost certainly seen the pictures by now. You’ve probably seen them a hundred times. A fist in the air, blood dripping from his ear, an American flag above him, a defiant expression on his face. Trump quickly jumping up from an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally and appearing to mouth the words: “Fight! Fight! Fight!” If you fed “all-American tough guy president” into an AI image generator, it wouldn’t spit out anything half as powerful. Obviously, there’s nothing remotely positive about a terrible act of political violence that left an innocent bystander and the shooter dead. But in terms of optics for Trump’s presidential campaign? Well, as Trump himself told the New York Post on Sunday: “A lot of people say it’s the most iconic photo they’ve ever seen.” He added: “They’re right and I didn’t die. Usually you have to die to have an iconic picture.”

There’s still a lot we don’t know about what happened on Saturday. We know who the suspected shooter is – the FBI has identified him as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks – but we don’t know why he did it. Crooks was a registered Republican but records show that when he was 17 he made a $15 donation to ActBlue , a political action committee that raises money for Democratic politicians. With the information we have right now, it’s hard to paint Crook as an extreme leftwinger.

That won’t stop Republicans, though, who are already blaming Joe Biden and the Democrats for the shooting. Again, there’s still a lot we don’t know about what exactly happened, but the one thing we can definitively say is that Trump’s allies will wring every possible drop of political capital out of the shooting.

“This was an assassination attempt aided and abetted by the radical Left and corporate media incessantly calling Trump a threat to democracy, fascists, or worse,” Senator Tim Scott tweeted on Saturday , for example.

“The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs,” the Ohio senator JD Vance similarly tweeted. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination.”

Vance is right on the first point. The central premise of Biden’s campaign is that Trump is an existential threat to democracy. That phrase has been repeated again and again. “There is one existential threat: it’s Donald Trump,” Biden said at a fundraiser in February. “Trump poses an existential threat to abortion rights in Pennsylvania,” the Democratic US representative Mary Gay Scanlon said at a press conference in April. The Democratic congressman Gregory Meeks called Trump an “ existential threat to democracy ” this month on MSNBC.

All of that is still true. But now that there’s been a dramatic threat to Trump’s very existence, that talking point loses its potency. Every time a Democrat raises it, Republicans can claim they are putting Trump’s life at risk again. Expect that phrase to start fizzling out. The assassination attempt on Trump has made it a lot harder for Democrats to emphasize how dangerous his policies would be. Instead they’ll spend the next couple of weeks talking about civility and denouncing violence. (And, of course, violence of any type should always be roundly condemned. It’s just a shame the same politicians denouncing political violence right now have no problem raining hell down on kids in Gaza. Violence, it seems, is only condemned when it affects certain people.)

Related: Will Trump call for healing – or rub salt in wounds – in wake of rally shooting?

Another big Democratic talking point is January 6 . Biden has been blistering about Trump’s election “big lie” that incited the breach of the Capitol by a “violent mob” of Trump supporters. Biden has asked people to recall the violent scenes and reflect on how “ democracy was attacked ” that day. Again, all that remains true, but that particular narrative also loses its potency when Trump has been attacked; when the democratic process has been attacked. If January 6 is mentioned again, Republicans can simply point their fingers at Democrats and accuse them of inciting violence on 13 July.

While the Democrats’ key talking points have been weakened, Trump’s characterization of himself as a brave martyr has been strengthened. From the very beginning of his political career, Trump has painted himself as an outsider, taking on the elites. He’s repeatedly characterized his many legal battles as a politically motivated “ witch-hunt ”. DC insiders and the deep state, he keeps saying, are out to get him. He’s claimed that his enemies have tried to lock him up and have tried to steal the election. Now he can claim they’ve tried to kill him. Trump already has a cult-like base. After his brush with death, they will be even more devoted to their hero.

All of this could not come at a worse time for Biden. His campaign, I don’t need to tell you, is in complete disarray. Day after day there has been headline after headline about the president being too frail and feeble for office. Biden already looked like a weak old man compared to Trump (who is only three years younger than him). Now that contrast has been extraordinarily heightened. Trump is the guy who jumps straight up after being fired at by an assassin; Biden is the guy who stumbles up the stairs. If you’re an undecided voter swayed by which candidate looks more presidential, your mind just got made up.

• Arwa Mahdawi is a Guardian US columnist