If President Joe Biden , who is trailing in the polls, stays on the Democratic ticket, it could help energize the party's fundraising at the House and Senate levels, some campaign strategists say.
The Democratic Party is facing upheaval over keeping Biden as the nominee heading into his rematch against former President Donald Trump . A growing number of Democrats are calling on the president to step aside in favor of a younger candidate who might have a better chance of beating Trump, but so far, Biden has remained steadfast, generating considerable uneasiness within the party.
However, some campaign strategists think that keeping Biden at the top of the ticket could result in more money pouring into Democratic coffers at the congressional level.
That is because some Democratic donors might see the presidency as more likely to swing to Trump, so they may turbocharge their funding for a Democratic firewall in the House to block Republicans from claiming a trifecta of power.
One longtime Democratic strategist who has worked on statewide and congressional races told the Washington Examiner that Democratic fundraisers at the congressional level are “jumping on the opportunity” to let voters know that regardless of what happens with the presidential race “it is really important that Democrats control at least one of the two chambers of Congress.”
"We always knew it was going to be a close election," Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) told Politico. "But if Trump prevails, it’s essential that we keep that House. We don’t want them to have a trifecta, which means picking up these four or five seats."
Trump is polling nearly 3 percentage points better nationally than Biden, according to an aggregate of polls from RealClearPolitics. In battleground Pennsylvania, Trump is polling more than 5 points ahead of Biden. He is also outperforming the president in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, and even Wisconsin — a state Republicans have only won once since 1984.
"Donald Trump is on track to win this election, and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House," Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) warned on CNN.
But Democrats are faring better at the House level.
The group RacetotheWH, which publishes forecasts for various races, puts Democrats’ odds of retaking the House at 57%, while simultaneously projecting Trump will best Biden if he stays on the ticket.
From the night of Biden’s June 27 debate to the end of the month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, whose main goal is to elect Democrats to the House, raised $1.3 million, according to numbers provided by the DCCC.
An event for House Democrats after the debate that featured House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and former President Barack Obama netted an additional $3 million.
A possible scenario in House districts that are not very pro-Trump but that are still held by Republican incumbents is that voters there might write off the presidential race and assume Trump will win, so in turn, they might be more likely to vote Democratic in House races to ensure Democrats have a check on Trump, according to the strategist.
But it is also worth noting that while a weak Biden may energize fundraising, having an underperforming president at the head of the ticket could affect turnout, and thus have the opposite effect on performance at the polls.
The strategist emphasized that despite Biden’s lackluster debate performance and the subsequent fallout, the donor well at the national level likely will not dry up because “Democrats are fired up and understand the stakes of a Trump presidency.”
For instance, Biden campaign officials said there were 40,000 donations during the president's highly anticipated press conference Thursday night.
But on Friday, the New York Times reported that donors have temporarily paused at least $90 million in pledged donations to Future Forward, a top super PAC supporting Biden’s reelection campaign.
Alex Conant, a GOP strategist and partner at Firehouse Strategies, told the Washington Examiner that in 2008, when he was press secretary of the Republican National Committee and Obama was facing then-Sen. John McCain, it became apparent that Obama was going to win a couple of weeks out from the election and resources were diverted to House and Senate candidates.
“I think Democrats will view the House as the backstop against total Republican control, and why waste money on Biden in Michigan if those resources could save House seats in New York?” Conant said.
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He said more so than the major parties’ fundraising arms, which essentially report to the nominee, a more pronounced shift to the congressional races could be seen from major individual donors and super PACs.
“The billionaire who is spending his own money on politics is going to spend it however he thinks is most efficient,” Conant said. “I think they’ll be the first to pull out of supporting Biden and doubling down on saving or electing house Dems.”
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