Public Opinion Strategies, a polling firm used by NBC News in its latest poll, revealed a massive mistake in a survey released Sunday that appeared to show President Joe Biden ahead by 3 percentage points nationally.
Former President Donald Trump, not Biden, had been ahead by 3 points in a multicandidate race, according to a statement from the company. The company acknowledged its mistake Sunday night, well after many Democrats had seized the poll as an opportunity to buoy Biden.
"The polling team extends its apology to NBCNews and to all those who reviewed the filled in questionnaire of our most recent survey," the company posted on X.
"We made an important mistake on the filled in released today. On the multi-candidate ballot (Q8, corrected here) we flipped the numbers," it added. "President Biden is not ahead with 40% to 37% for former President Trump. In fact, Trump is ahead 40% to 37%. The correct data is reflected in the crosstabs and slides, but unfortunately these numbers were flipped in the topline document that the polling firms prepared for public release for NBC. We take full responsibility for a very significant error on our part. Deep apologies."
The error represents a massive 6-point swing to Trump in what would've been one of Biden's most successful polling efforts in a multicandidate poll, which has generally favored the former president.
Politico reported that the correction is "zipping across the text messages of Democratic leaders" as many Democrats pushed the original poll result on social media.
A local Democratic Party chairman, Chris D. Jackson, posted the poll's original results in a breaking news format.
Another prominent Democratic social media account, Biden's Wins, also posted the original poll's results, remarking, "President Biden has erased the post-debate gap despite the media going after him relentlessly."
The poll's original result would've made a compelling case for Biden, who had been the subject of a significant media inquiry as some in his own party nudged him to step down. The poll's new result aligns with much of what recent polling has indicated: Trump is leading Biden in the presidential race.
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Trump led Biden 45% to 43% in head-to-head polling in the same survey, a result much closer to the corrected multicandidate polling numbers.
No national polls have incorporated Saturday, a day in which Trump was nearly assassinated, in their polling yet. The events could shift the 2024 presidential campaign significantly.
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