Severe T-Storms with Damaging Winds & Large Hail Possible in the Central Plains; July 15th, 2024

Photo byNational Weather Force

Brief Outlook:

Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across the Central Plains on Monday. The main threats include damaging winds and isolated severe hail. Check below for further details, timing and much more information.

Regions Impacted: Central Plains

States: Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado

Cities: Colby, McCook, Denver

Detailed Forecast:

The Central Plains will experience isolated severe thunderstorms due to upslope low-level flow and peak afternoon heating. By late afternoon to early evening, thunderstorms will develop along the lee of the Rocky Mountains and move eastward into the Central Plains. Strong westerly mid-level winds (30-40 kts) will support the quick movement of these storms, leading to a well-mixed boundary layer and steep lapse rates (8.5-9.5°C/km, which indicates a significant change in temperature with height). This environment will support deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts and hail.

The combination of upslope flow, surface heating, and sufficient mid-level moisture will create a favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. As storms move off the higher terrain into the modestly moist airmass of the Central Plains, moderate vertical shear will help support greater updraft persistence and potential organization into clusters. This could lead to isolated severe gusts and hail, with some storms possibly producing damaging winds.

Timing:

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in eastern Colorado by late afternoon around 4 PM, moving eastward into Nebraska and Kansas by early evening. Major cities such as Denver will likely see storm impacts between 5 PM and 7 PM. As the storms continue to move eastward, Kansas City and Omaha will be affected by mid-evening around 8 PM. The storm activity should gradually diminish by late evening around 10 PM as instability decreases.

Main Impact: damaging winds, large hail and lightning.

Stay tuned for more updates.

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