Back-to-school spending will likely stay flat or drop as inflation persists: survey

Back-to-school spending is likely to stay flat or tick down this year as cash-strapped parents hit hard by inflation pull back on electronics purchases and prioritize value, according to a new survey.

Shoppers are likely to spend $31.30 billion, or about $586 per student, in kindergarten to 12th grade, Deloitte said, citing its shopper surveys.

That compares to $31.90 billion, or $597 per head, for 2023, it said.

The cost of school supplies has increased 24.5% over the past four years, the survey found.

“Families are searching for deals and prioritizing value and convenience to save wherever possible,” Brian McCarthy, principal of retail strategy at Deloitte, said in a statement. “This dynamic creates an opportunity for retailers to take some of the anxiety out of the season by extending loyalty programs and incentives.”

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About 67% of parents surveyed may sacrifice loyalty if the preferred brand is too expensive, Deloitte said. The survey polled a sample of 1,198 American parents of school-aged children.

Shoppers are likely to spend $12.60 billion on clothing and school supplies, roughly on a par with what they spent in 2023, and $8.6 billion on technology products, down 11% from a year earlier.

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Middle-income families making between $50,000 and $99,000 in a year are expected to cut their spending by 9%, while low-income families making less than $50,000 could slash their spending by 4% in 2024.

Meanwhile, higher-income families whose annual incomes exceed $100,000 are expected to see a 5% rise in average spending to $721 per child, compared with $689 a year ago, Deloitte noted in the report.

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Walmart, Target and China-based Shein launched their back-to-school offerings in early July – earlier than usual.

Companies are racing to compete with rival Amazon, which kicks off its annual two-day Prime Day event Tuesday.

“As the summer sales events have become almost the unofficial start of back to school shopping, retailers need to have those promotional offers … queued up right, ready to go,” said Stephen Rogers, managing director, Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center.

The flat back-to-school spending predictions come as i nflation dipped 0.1% in June – the first decrease in three years.

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