Early trends in fantasy football according to latest mock drafts

Mock drafts are a great way to get ready for the fantasy football season. We tried three on fantasypros.com and noticed a few things we’d like to pass along.

Not quite “Zero RB,” but close

Zero RB is a method of drafting where fantasy players bypass the running back position in the early portion of drafts, usually waiting until at least the fifth-round to take one. As more NFL teams lean into running back committees, some managers see more value in early-round wide receivers.

That was clearly the case in our first mock draft, where wide receivers outnumbered running backs 8-4 in the first round. Here, well-established, workhorse running backs like Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, once top-picks in fantasy drafts, were relegated to the second round in favor of young wide receivers like Puka Nacua and Garrett Wilson.

The trend continued in rounds 2-5, as wide receivers outnumbered running backs 23-16, with most ball carriers going off the board in rounds 8-10. Keep in mind, seven of fantasy football’s top-30 scorers were running backs in standard leagues last year as compared to just three wide receivers. In PPR formats, wide receivers outnumbered running backs 8-6.

Tight ends are a pain

The tight end position may be the hardest to predict in fantasy football. Last year, second-round rookie Sam LaPorta went undrafted in most leagues only to lead all tight ends with 239.3 points in PPR leagues. Meanwhile, second-year tight end Trey McBride finished with the 10th-most fantasy points with only three touchdowns scored.

No wonder former All-Pros like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews lasted until the fourth-round in our second mock draft. Surprisingly, Kelce was the third tight end taken while no other tight ends were drafted in rounds 7-10. Even more shocking was Baltimore’s defense getting picked before talented players like Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson and David Njoku, all top-10 fantasy tight ends in 2023.

Experience counts at quarterback

The loss of wide receiver Stefon Diggs doesn’t seem to matter as Buffalo’s Josh Allen was the first quarterback taken in our third mock draft. Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson rounded out the top five, each one with at least one Super Bowl appearance and four years of NFL experience.

After that, young passers like Jordan Love, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud all came off the board before Commanders’ rookie Jayden Daniels was selected late in the late seventh-round. By drafting these players in rounds 6-7, managers were able to add proven fantasy assets like tight ends George Kittle and Evan Engram.

Engram’s 230.3 points were second-most in fantasy football last year and looked pretty good on a team with Stroud and running back Christian McCaffrey.

In other words, while waiting on a quarterback continues to be a tried and true strategy, waiting on the quarterback to earn his NFL stripes may also be wise.  Of course, most fantasy drafts are still a month away, but it’s never too early to start thinking about your next fantasy team.