Jim Harbaugh was hired by the Los Angeles Chargers to bring back a tradition of winning the franchise has not seen in almost two decades. The hope is to ultimately win a Super Bowl; however, the expectation is such a feat would take place in 2025 or beyond when the team has significant cap space and the early rewards of a cycle of compensatory picks at their disposal. That leaves 2024 record projections of the middling variety.
The Chargers’ forecasted win total is set at 8.5 games, a number reflecting not the strength of their entire roster but rather faith in Justin Herbert and a proven head coach. Curiosity then turns to whether Harbaugh can lead the franchise to an overperformance in 2024, much as he did in 2011 when he took the San Francisco 49ers from 6-10 to 13-3.
Historically, the first year of rehired veteran head coaches yielded somewhat stronger team results than first-time head coaches. One way to measure team performance is in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play). Since 2013, rehires oversaw an average total EPA/Play of -0.0094, whereas new hires oversaw an average of -0.0281.
Rehires won an average of 44 percent of their games and made the playoffs 33 percent of the time in their first year. First-time head coaches were less fortunate, winning 38 percent of their games and making the playoffs just 20 percent of the time in their first year. The clear benefit of a veteran head coach in the first year was part of what drew the majority of Chargers fans to Harbaugh.
Pivoting to wins over projections paints a slightly muddied picture. This data looks at veteran head coaches from 2013-2023 who were in their first year with their second NFL franchise and excludes any coaches who were one-and-done with their first franchise. During this span, only 36 percent of these coaches exceeded win total projections while 64 percent either met those projections or underperformed. The average wins over or under were similar at 2.375 and 2.538, respectively.
The Chargers should be viewed as a team who will exceed their record predictions because they are in the unique position of having an established quarterback and a head coach with Super Bowl experience. Andy Reid, Doug Pederson, and Jim Caldwell won 3.5, 2.5, and 3.0 games over projections, respectively, with those qualifications. Ken Whisenhunt had the experience when he joined the Tennessee Titans, but not the quarterback. Mike McCarthy had a Super Bowl win to his name, but Dak Prescott played just five games his first year as coach of the Dallas Cowboys.
An inspired performance from Jesse Minter's shorthanded defense and the successful implementation of Ben Herbert's strength and conditioning program could increase the magnitude of the Chargers' success over projection. Through the 13 weeks Herbert was healthy, Brandon Staley's defense was 25th in EPA/Play . The team also struggled with injuries, particularly on offense where they had the third-most Wins Above Replacement (WAR) lost.
A positive change on both fronts would net significant results, particularly if they can take advantage of their own worst-place schedule. Only four NFL teams have an easier projected strength of schedule ahead of them in 2024. They will play nine games against teams with either a new quarterback or head coach. Four of their five most difficult matchups (Bengals, Ravens, Buccaneers, and Chiefs) will be home games.
The Chargers are at a tremendous advantage with their Herbert-Harbaugh combination. No year one combination since 2013 has joined a coach who has been to a Super Bowl with an MVP candidate at quarterback. Fans may not see the Chargers win the AFC West and make a deep playoff run in 2024, but given history and this pairing they should be bullish on their favorite team’s odds to beat expectations this season.
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