Trump trails Biden by just 3% in Virginia: Poll

Former President Donald Trump is within the margin of error in Virginia , a pivotal state for President Joe Biden in November, according to a new survey.

A New York Times-Siena College poll released Monday shows Biden leading Trump 48% to 45% among likely voters in Virginia, while Trump leads Biden 48%-45% among likely voters in Pennsylvania. Both states went for Biden in 2020 and are key to the president winning another four years in the White House.

The Virginia poll has a margin of error of 4.4%, meaning Trump is within range, while in the Pennsylvania poll the margin of error is 3.8%, meaning Biden is also in range for that swing state. In 2020, Biden won Virginia by 10 percentage points and Pennsylvania by roughly 1 percentage point. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 but lost Virginia by 5.3 percentage points. The last time a Republican won Virginia was in 2004.

The surveys in both states were conducted prior to the assassination attempt on Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Saturday. The shooting left one man, Corey Comperatore, 50, dead, while Trump and some others were injured.

The Trump campaign has claimed it can make a play for Virginia and some other historically Democratic states such as Minnesota, as Biden continues to trail in key swing states. Polls in Minnesota have also indicated a closer race between Biden and Trump than in 2020.

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading Biden in Pennsylvania 47.7%-43.2%, while Biden leads Trump in the polling average in Virginia 46%-45%. Pennsylvania and Virginia are widely viewed as must-win states for Biden.

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The Cook Political Report has rated Pennsylvania as a "toss-up" and Virginia as "likely Democratic."

The poll comes as the Republican National Convention is being held in Milwaukee through Thursday. Trump has been nominated as the GOP's pick for a third consecutive time. The former president announced Monday that Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) will be his running mate in November.