Why the Los Angeles Chargers need to sign free agent corner Stephon Gilmore

Per a conversation with Josina Anderson , free agent corner Stephon Gilmore still believes he is an NFL starter but will remain patient until he finds the right fit with an organization. Los Angeles Chargers general manager Joe Hortiz should be on the phone immediately.

Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter left Michigan to join the Chargers and help spearhead the next defensive revolution as his predecessor Mike Macdonald did with the Baltimore Ravens. There’s just one problem: The Chargers do not have nearly the same level of talent the Ravens did. Last year, the Ravens were second in defensive Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play) thanks to strong seasons from safety Kyle Hamilton, linebacker Roquan Smith, defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, corner Marlon Humphrey (when healthy), and a host of other high-end starters and rotation players. Aside from Derwin James Jr. and their EDGE group, the Chargers do not have remotely comparable players.

Gilmore may not be an All-Pro in 2024, but he certainly presents a higher floor and ceiling than free agent acquisition Kristian Fulton. Statistically, Gilmore is at minimum comparable in coverage to Asante Samuel Jr. and scored better in several 2023 categories:

Gilmore has a significant edge over Fulton in Pro Football Focus (PFF) coverage grade, PFF run defense grade, total forced incompletions, forced incompletion rate, passer rating allowed, and missed tackle rate against the run. While his coverage numbers are similar to Samuel Jr.’s, Gilmore is not nearly the same liability in the run game.

The Ravens are masters of late-summer and preseason veteran signings, a tactic Hortiz looks to bring with him from Baltimore. In 2023, the Ravens signed three key veterans over 30 in late July, August, and September of last season: CB Arthur Maulet, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, and EDGE Kyle Van Noy. Gilmore will be 34 in September, presenting the Chargers with a short-term option to start in their secondary.

Signing Gilmore is not a sure-fire transaction to create a Top 10 defense, but it just might prevent the Chargers from falling into the disastrous statistical history of defenses with shorthanded secondaries and middling defensive tackle rooms.

Data presents 10 teams with great EDGE groups, as the Chargers have, but subpar secondary and defensive tackle rooms. These 10 teams have the biggest gaps between secondary and EDGE grades with DT rooms that graded below 56.0. Sadly, though not surprisingly, the Chargers are three of the teams on this list (and yes, Brandon Staley’s defense is on here twice):

The average ranking of these 10 defenses is roughly 27th in EPA/Play. The best outcome was the 2020 Dallas Cowboys’ defense at 21st in EPA/Play, which still led to the firing of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan.

The Chargers’ current starting defense heading into 2024 would bump out their 2021 defense for the tenth-biggest difference in EDGE and secondary grade. If they hope to avoid setting Justin Herbert up with another below-average defense, they have to continue to add pieces in the secondary and along the defensive line. Gilmore’s high floor elevates the floor of this defense, particularly as a veteran presence who can more readily learn Minter’s scheme.