Biden Finally Got Border Numbers Down. Will He See the Political Benefits?

The number of migrants crossing the southern border has dropped sharply since the Biden administration imposed severe restrictions on asylum last month.

In June, just more than 83,000 migrants crossed the border illegally, according to U.S. border officials, down from around 117,000 in May and the lowest monthly total since January 2021.

The downturn in crossings has continued into July. The daily average of encounters at the border in the past week was under 1,900 as of Monday, according a senior U.S. Customs and Border Protection official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal statistics.

The steep decrease coincides with the implementation of a June policy that bans asylum at the southern border, along with ramped-up enforcement from Mexican officials starting this year.

But it comes at a time when the country’s attention is focused on the questions surrounding the continued candidacy of President Joe Biden in this year’s presidential election and the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. The political benefits of a border crackdown may yet prove fleeting.

And as a harsher view of illegal immigration has taken hold among many Americans, surveys suggest Trump’s harder line may resonate more with swing voters, including some Hispanic Americans.

Still, if the numbers remained stable, that would put July on track for about 60,000 crossings, around figures seen at the end of the Trump administration. The decrease in recent months has been especially stark compared with heights reached at the end of last year: In December alone, around 250,000 migrant apprehensions were reported.

“The Biden administration has been around for 41 full months; June 2024 will have been the month with the fewest migrant apprehensions,” said Adam Isacson, a migration expert at the Washington Office on Latin America. “By far — no other month comes close.”

“And of those 41 months,” he added, “the first six months of 2024 are all within the top quarter of months with the fewest migrants.”

The senior Customs and Border Protection official said that increased enforcement at the border had made a difference. The official also pointed to the ability for migrants to have options other than crossing the border illegally, such as gaining entry through an application with a government app.

Matthew Hudak, former deputy chief at the U.S. Border Patrol, said the White House’s messaging in June when it instituted the asylum restrictions has had a major impact on migrants considering journeys across the border.

“There’s never been outright, direct, unambiguous messaging from the White House — that was the first time that’s happened,” he said.

Biden himself said last month that he needed to get the border under control.

“The simple truth is there is a worldwide migrant crisis, and if the United States doesn’t secure our border, there is no limit to the number of people who may try to come here, because there is no better place on the planet than the United States of America,” Biden said in early June as he announced the asylum measure.

The Biden administration has long struggled to contain the flows of migrants crossing the border and has aimed to bring the numbers down to a manageable level. But the downturn has spurred new concerns, including that the figures could drop so low that the administration would be forced to pause the asylum crackdown.

The current rules allow for the ban on asylum to be lifted if fewer than 1,500 migrants cross illegally per day over a period of about two weeks. Such a drop has seemed unlikely, given trends in recent years.

The shift on the ground at the border was notable, according to advocates and experts who recently visited.

In Arizona, Yael Schacher, director of the Americas and Europe for Refugees International, said a shelter she visited in Tucson had about 1,800 people in December. But in June, she said, the shelter’s highest day was around 300.

“There’s been a huge change,” she said.

Whether the downturn stays consistent remains to be seen.

In June last year, illegal crossings dropped to around 100,000 after the Biden administration instituted some restrictions on asylum at the border.

The drop did not last long, though the senior Customs and Border Protection official said that the number of migrants congregating near the border on the Mexico side has dropped compared with last year.

If illegal immigration recedes from the forefront of political conversation, that might still be to Biden’s benefit, whether or not voters give him credit.

“For the Biden administration, it means a few months in which the ‘border crisis’ won’t be as much of a campaign issue,” Isacson said.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times .