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Preview: UFC on ESPN 60 Prelims
By Tom Feely,
2 days ago
The Ultimate Fighting Championship 's latest trip to the Apex has a solid enough set of prelims, buoyed by the top two fights. Jeong Yeong Lee and Hyder Amil might not be household names, but the featherweights should combine for some entertaining violence, particularly with Amil's predilection for pushing the pace. Right below that, Brian Kelleher and Cody Gibson should have a fun scrap between two veterans each in need of a win. There’s also some interesting matchmaking on paper that might not be that entertaining in practice, with one or both fighters looking to neutralize what their opponent brings to the table.
This should be fireworks, and that seems to be a growing trend for Amil fights. It'll be interesting to see how far Amil can carry his game, since right now he seems like the type of fighter who doesn't know he's supposed to lose; "The Hurricane" gets out-wrestled, eats offense and generally allows his opponents to have a lot of success, but he also always seems to find a way to weaponize his pace, finding second, third and fourth winds to either win rounds on the scorecards or find himself as the last man standing. That was the name of the game in both his Contender Series fight and his UFC debut against Fernie Garcia this past February, and it'll be fascinating to see if he can pull off the same trick against South Korea's Lee.
"The Korean Tiger" won the featherweight bracket of the first "Road to UFC" tournament last year with a run that was a bit hard to parse; he scored two finishes in a combined 78 seconds, then scored a narrow decision win against an opponent that successfully slowed his offense to a halt but accomplished little else. But Lee's proper UFC debut went well last February; in a fight against Blake Bilder that went just about everywhere, Lee proved he can hit hard and string together successful offense for 15 minutes given a willing dance partner. Amil is certainly that, so this should be an excellent scrap that comes down to whether the American can find Lee's breaking point; Lee's shown enough to get the benefit of the doubt, but honestly, his overall resume is still questionable enough that this fight is essentially a coin flip. The pick is Lee via decision.
Some excellent matchmaking here sees two veterans square off in what should be one of the most exciting fights of the night on paper. Kelleher's settled into a consistent niche for most of his UFC career, though it's hard to tell where the Long Islander stands in 2024. Already a seasoned vet by the time he hit the UFC in 2017,"Boom" settled in as both an entertaining kill-or-be-killed fighter and a gatekeeper to the bantamweight elite; nearly all of his UFC losses have come to someone who has had their moment in the sun as a potential title contender, while the bottom half of the roster had little answer for his well-rounded ability to bring violence. Yes, 2022 was one of the rougher years for Kelleher, as he got tough matchups against Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista and suffered the expected losses, then didn't get his usual chance at a rebound after suffering some career-threatening injury issues that kept him out of action until the end of 2023. And even that return fight is a bit hard to parse; Kelleher didn't look much the worse for wear physically against Cody Garbrandt , but suffered a quick knockout loss that both tracks with Kelleher's history of slow starts and raises some concerns given all the other issues surrounding his career. At any rate, if Kelleher can capture anything near his past form, this should be both a winnable fight and a barnburner against Gibson, who's looking for his first win since his return to the UFC.
Gibson had a solid but brief run with the UFC in 2014 and 2015 back when the promotion's roster management was much less forgiving, then stayed relevant on the regional scene before getting a spot on last year's season of “TUF.” Gibson wound up as the runner-up of the bantamweight bracket to fellow UFC alum Brad Katona , but still managed to be one of the highlights of the season as a pressure-heavy and all-action fighter that was able to drag some fun fights out of some potentially unexciting opponents. But despite his best efforts, a clear athletic ceiling held Gibson back against both Katona and Miles Johns , who were able to stay ahead in wars of attrition on the scorecards. That's also the read here, though there's the ever-present risk that Gibson can catch Kelleher early on; if that doesn't happen, Kelleher should be able to follow his usual blueprint of building momentum as the fight goes on, particularly with Gibson's aggressive style typically meaning that he eats a lot of his opponent's offense. The pick is Kelleher via decision.
A late shuffle results in a well-matched bout here. Maverick's had some ups and downs throughout her UFC career, to say the least. Signed at just 22 years of age in 2020, Maverick got an early enough start that she was already a seasoned veteran by the time she hit the Octagon; coming up the ranks as a fairly one-dimensional wrestler, wins over Liana Jojua and Gillian Robertson to kick off her UFC career raised the hopes that Maverick was hitting her stride at just the right time. But that momentum dried up quickly after losses to Maycee Barber and Erin Blanchfield , two other young prospects who were much more focused on imposing their physicality and jumped past Maverick in the ranks as a result. Maverick's won a whole lot more than she's lost in the fights since then, but there's been the sense that she's struggling to figure her game out, leaning on her striking and some patience at times when she'd be much better served going back to her more aggressive and wrestling-focused ways. To her credit, that seems to have finally come back around in her last two fights -- particularly in an extended mauling of Priscila Cachoeira a shade over a year ago - but Maverick still has yet to have the breakout performance to announce that things are truly clicking. In the other corner is late replacement Barbosa, who's feeling her way through much the same process. Five years older than Maverick and with a few years less of professional mixed martial experience, Barbosa's a former judo and grappling standout who has also made her name with a ground-heavy game. Given Barbosa's athleticism and background, she reads as the type of prospect that typically blows through their competition on the regional scene, though that surprisingly hasn't been the case; she's suffered some losses - albeit against a high level of competition that includes some current UFC and Professional Fighters League talent -- and even her wins have typically been control-heavy affairs rather than dominant submission victories. That held true in her UFC debut against fellow newcomer Ernesta Kareckaite this past May, and that lack of finishing ability makes Maverick an easier pick in general; the fact that this fight is strength against strength might make things a bit tricky, but Maverick reads as being much further along in the same process of becoming a well-rounded mixed martial artist. The pick is Maverick via decision.
It's Ogden fight time, and like most of his fights, this is an interesting matchup on paper that might not be all that exciting in practice. A well-seasoned vet before getting the UFC call in 2022, Ogden is a pure neutralizer to an impressive level; large for the lightweight division, Ogden is armed with a jab, some low kicks and a solid wrestling game, using each of those tools as necessary to keep his opponents at bay. In Ogden's last two fights it's been that wrestling and grappling game, but a 2022 win over Daniel Zellhuber showed that "Samurai Ghost" can stay consistent enough on the feet to coast out a win. Things can still easily go south for Ogden, as Jordan Leavitt was content to peck away and outpoint Ogden while Ignacio Bahamondes combined aggression with an even longer frame for the division, and it's unclear which side of that coin Radzhabov falls on.
Part of the impressive wave of fighters coming to the UFC via Tajikistan, Radzhabov has a dedicated pressure game for better or worse. "The Tajik Tank" looks to sling heat as an avenue to get into his wrestling game, and he remains dedicated to that approach even once he gets exhausted or if his opponent can throw back consistent offense in return; one of those two things usually happens, so even as Radzhabov keeps his head above water in the UFC, it's rarely in the form of a clean win for three rounds. Ogden could easily thread the needle for another neutralizing win, proving adept enough as an offensive wrestler to neutralize Radzhabov or effective enough with his jab to keep the Tajik fighter at bay, but the read is that Radzhabov brings enough aggression and physicality to the table to take away Ogden's margin for error. This figures to be grimy; the pick is Radzhabov via decision.
It looks like Pudilova's second UFC stint might be going the same way as the first, with the Czech fighter struggling to find a foothold in the promotion. Pudilova initially came to the UFC in 2017 as a bantamweight and put together a reputation for exciting fights, even if she wasn't particularly successful in terms of results; Pudilova fought with a ton of aggressive and tried to make things happen, but a combination of subpar athleticism and takedown defense usually led to an uphill battle, even after a cut down to 125 pounds. Pudilova retooled, changed camps and put together a solid regional record to get the call back from the UFC in 2022 after a two-year absence, and her return win over Wu Yanan went well enough, with Pudilova exhibiting both some newfound patience and a solid offensive wrestling game of her own. But she's now riding two straight losses; a decision win for Joselyne Edwards was quite controversial, as Pudilova banked a ton of control time that apparently didn't score with the judges, but her loss to Ailin Perez was another bout where she was outgunned both physically and as a defensive wrestler. So it's time for another cut down to flyweight, where she'll be welcomed by Luana Carolina , who's quietly become a solid fighter over the last few years.
Carolina was easy to write off for the first few years of her UFC career; a tall and athletic striker, the Brazilian received almost no pushback during her regional career and did not handle adversity well early on against better competition. Even Carolina's biggest win of her early run against Lupita Godinez was easy to write off, as it saw Godinez move up a division for her second fight in seven days -- and once she subsequently got knocked out via spinning elbow by Molly McCann , the book on Carolina seemed to be written. But while her last two fights haven't been particularly fun, she's been able to gut out ugly wins over Ivana Petrovic and Julija Stoliarenko as a neutralizer in the clinch and on the mat while still leveraging her length on the feet as needed. Pudilova moving down a division might change those dynamics a bit, but given Petrovic is a massive flyweight and Stoliarenko is another converted bantamweight, this looks like another fight where Carolina can just neutralize whatever the Czech fighter brings to the table. The pick is Carolina via decision.
It might not be the prettiest fight, but one of two solid heavyweight prospects should wind up with a much-needed win here. A 2023 alum of the Contender Series after a solid regional career, Petersen figured to have a fairly smooth transition to some level of success in the UFC; a decorated collegiate wrestler, "The Train" leans on that background early and often, which has typically been enough to grind out wins against the lower levels of the UFC's heavyweight roster. That made it a bit of a surprise when he lost his UFC debut to Jamal Pogues , who seemed bullyable in the past but was able to outwork Petersen enough to earn a decision victory. Things might go better here against Usman, who brings much more physicality than Pogues to the table but not the pace. The younger brother of former welterweight champion Kamaru and a former football player, Usman's done well to improve during his seven years in the sport; it's been a slow process, but "The Motor" has smoothed out a lot of the clunkiness in his game to become a solid fighter, albeit one buoyed a ton by his physical strength. Petersen might wind up just getting stalled out while attempting to outwrestle Usman, but there's a decent chance he can make his game work; and even if not, he might just pump out enough volume to win rounds while pressuring Usman to no particular end. It figures to be ugly either way; the pick is Petersen via decision.
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