Former President Donald Trump had many strong vice presidential options available to him. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) could have helped him among Hispanic voters. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) could have helped him with suburban women. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley could have helped him solidify establishment Republicans. And Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) could have expanded the map, adding Virginia, where recent polls have Biden and Trump tied, to a growing list of possible pickups for the Republican Party.
But Trump chose a different path. Instead of trying to incrementally increase his odds of victory this year, he opted to underscore the direction that he will take the Republican Party in the next four years, and influence the course it will be on for a generation. The selection of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) doubles down on the ticket's appeal to blue-collar workers. Trump has an instinctive grasp of core elements in an agenda to Make America Great Again. Vance's vision, while being well aligned with Trump's, is also more detailed in terms of ideology and policy details. Trump chose a running mate not to achieve some sort of ideal balance but to gain a genuine lieutenant in the movement the former president has created.
Vance is not a perfect choice, but he has a compelling resume that is worth reciting. After a difficult childhood that included a broken home and a mother addicted to drugs, Vance pulled his life together with the help of his grandparents, enlisted in the Marines, and served a tour in Iraq, all before graduating from the Ohio State University.
From there, he went to Yale Law School and had a brief but successful venture capital career before penning a bestselling autobiography, Hillbilly Elegy, that catapulted him into a record-breaking $200 million Senate race against 10-term Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), whom he defeated by 6 points. What Vance lacks on the campaign trail, he makes up for in the television studio, and he is likely to prove more than Vice President Kamala Harris can handle in their debate. He could well embarrass her for her “idea voyages” and incoherent sentences.
Vance has said things that alarm the Democratic and Republican foreign policy establishments, particularly his oft-quoted remark, “I got to be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or the other.” This was an undiplomatic admission, to say the least, but, taken out of context, it ignores Vance's belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin's advance into Ukraine “is not in our interest.” In other words, he is less concerned about Ukraine, per se, than about what a failure to prevent Russian victory would mean for American global leadership and national security. While Vance does not share the optimistic view held by a shrinking minority that Ukraine can regain its 2014 borders, he does believe that halting Russian aggression is necessary. He is arguably realistic about what that will require.
Vance’s comments on what he would have done had he been vice president on Jan. 6, 2021, are less defensible. Whatever censorship may have been coordinated by the Democratic Party, Big Tech, and their media allies before Election Day, that does not change what was legally required of then-Vice President Mike Pence on the day election results were to be certified. Vance may believe Biden would have ultimately been named president anyway after a larger debate was had, but by his own admission, such a decision would have plunged the country into a “constitutional crisis.” One hopes that when faced with such stakes in real life, Vance would choose the same path Pence did.
Leaving Jan. 6 in the past, where Republican primary voters have left it, Vance is a natural vehicle for Trump’s brand of national conservative populism translated into a governing agenda.
Trump and Vance both seek a strong, prosperous, and populous United States that can project economic, military, and cultural might into future generations.
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Both men believe this will require secure borders, tight labor markets, strategic trading partnerships, and a regulatory environment that prioritizes investment, new construction, and reindustrialization over climate catastrophizing.
All that is very much in their favor.
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