‘Doctor Who’s Regeneration: Has The Disney Gamble Paid Off?

Those lucky enough to attend May’s Disney’s upfronts at the North Javits Center were treated to clips, teases and appearances from some of the world’s biggest stars.

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In the spotlight from the Bob Iger-led Mouse House were hits from the Disney stable including The Acolyte, Welcome to Wrexham, Abbott Elementary and a wealth of ESPN sports shows. The combined budget must have been astronomical.

But almost completely absent from the upfront festivities was Doctor Who, the iconic British sci-fi series that Disney+ now co-produces with the BBC following what was undoubtedly one of the biggest global TV show deals of the past decade. Doctor Who was handed a minor bit of real estate at the North Javits, but its lack of front-and-center placement may spin a yarn about the series’ position in the Disney priority log nearly three years on from the deal being struck.

Following the conclusion of the the first Disney-BBC Doctor Who season several weeks ago, Deadline has taken the opportunity to analyze its performance both locally and across the pond, its critical reception and just what the future has in store for the deal. Noises that it may not last beyond its initial two seasons are already reverberating around international TV circles, and one source close to the production tells us that they feel its future hangs in the balance already. Disney, the BBC, and co-producers BBC Studios and Bad Wolf all declined Deadline’s interview requests for this article.

Doctor Who is as much a part of the British cultural furniture as cups of tea or the post office (recent sins aside). Making stars of iconic Doctors such as Tom Baker, William Hartnell, Jon Pertwee and, more recently, Matt Smith, it has been airing on and off for more than 60 years, and was regenerated with fanfare when Doctor Who obsessive Russell T Davies took the reins in 2005.

It’s a Sin supremo Davies was the man trusted with showrunner duties in its latest iteration, paired with a Disney-driven budget boost that well-connected sources have estimated more than doubled the show’s per-ep investment to around the £10M ($13M) mark, with the deal valued by some at around £100M. Davies’ first move: bringing his long-term collaborator Jane Tranter and her Bad Wolf production outfit on board, a ‘won’t-do-it-without-them’ demand that has led to an unprecedented scenario whereby BBC Studios owns the Doctor Who brand and oversees international sales but Bad Wolf holds the production contract. BBC Studios boss Tom Fussell has previously described this deal as an “excellent” one but there is no getting round the fact that eyebrows were raised when the powerful commercial arm chose to hand over the keys. If the BBC-Disney deal doesn’t get re-upped, jaws could hit the floor.

Davies’ influence could be seen almost from the get go and his ambitions were lofty, with immediate talk of spin-offs and the creation of a ‘Whoniverse.’ His choice of doctor, Sex Education star Ncuti Gatwa, was the first Black and first openly gay actor to enter the Tardis. Gatwa’s companion, Millie Gibson, was a relative unknown, and she will be joined next season by a second female companion, Andor ‘s Varada Sethu. At times last year it felt as if the media was receiving almost weekly Doctor Who casting announcements, including David Tennant and Catherine Tate, who returned for Christmas anniversary specials, and guest roles for the likes of trans actress Yasmin Finney, who broke out in Heartstopper, Drag Race star Jinx Monsoon and Glee icon Jonathan Groff. The PR machine was in full flow and anticipation built among fans and industry watchers.

With the dust now settling, our across-the-board analysis of Doctor Who’s ratings and critical reception paints a nuanced picture, one that is reflective of the difficulty of judging modern-day TV series’ performance when so many metrics are in play.

“I thought it was a mixed bag,” says Tony Jordan, Society Co-ordinator of the 30,000-strong Doctor Who Appreciation Society, who says this feeling broadly reflects that of the mega fans he speaks with regularly. “When Russell’s return was announced I thought, ‘That’s fantastic’ but maybe I remembered the good stuff and chose to forget the not so good stuff. His track record of ending seasons with two parters has been widely varying in success, for example.”

Jordan — who shares his name with the well-known UK drama producer — believes the critical verdict was somewhat guided by the “worst episode by a distance,” ‘Space Babies,’ kicking things off. It was described by The Guardian as a “textbook example of a mid-ranking Who instalment” and the Independent as a “promising idea that never entirely comes to life on screen.”

Jordan also questions the ordering of the episodes and whether the audience was given enough exposure to Gatwa on his first outing, which, he suggests, may have been due to the in-demand star’s other filming commitments.

Jason Quinn, the Editor of Doctor Who magazine, cuts a more positive figure when pondering the latest iteration of the show. “What’s great about Doctor Who is that it can kind of do anything and that’s what this season did more than others,” he says. “Each episode was so different in tone. I struggle to think of any other family show that attracts so much discussion.”

Elsewhere, an influx of diverse characters led the tabloid press in particular to brand the show with terms such as “woke obsession” and “peak woke,” which sources say could have had an impact on viewing and critical response. But Quinn says Davies’ brilliance lies in his ability to integrate these themes in an incidental manner. “If people have a problem with gay people or trans people then, yes, they are not going to like the show, but in the scripts it didn’t feel like a big deal,” he says.

Editorially, Disney may have also had a role to play here. The might of the Disney budget boost could be seen in multiple scenes, but we are also told the streamer was keen to be across plotlines from the off. A rumor has spread that a scene in which a giant snowman falls down and lands on Gatwa’s Doctor at the start of Christmas special ‘The Church on Ruby Road’ was demanded by Disney after filming had wrapped to add exposition for American fans only just coming to the show.

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Ratings portrait

When it comes to ratings, a complex picture has developed. In the UK, the first ep from May launched with a disappointing 2.6 million overnight viewers, miles behind the opener of previous Doctor, Jodie Whittaker, and also shipping two million from the Tennant-starring specials. Jordan, who keeps a keen eye on ratings, says he was “genuinely amazed” when he clocked how big the drop was. When consolidated seven-day viewing figures were taken into account, the entire series averaged an audience down almost 1.5 million per episode compared to Whittaker’s last in 2021, according to Barb data supplied by overnights.tv, while it failed to light up Barb’s daily seven-day streaming rankings, which were at the time dominated by the likes of Baby Reindeer and Clarkson’s Farm , and evergreens such as EastEnders.

Armed with reams of its own internal data, the BBC has repeatedly stressed that overnights and even seven-day figures fail to paint a conclusive portrait. Doctor Who is the BBC’s top drama for under-35s this year, the corporation says, while ‘Space Babies’ at time of writing had amassed six million viewers. The BBC’s ‘Whoniverse’ iPlayer brand has been streamed in its entirety nearly 65 million times this year, a spokeswoman says. The spokeswoman adds that overnights “no longer provide an accurate picture of all those who watch drama in an on demand world,” and that “this season of Doctor Who premiered on iPlayer nearly 24 hours before broadcast,” which impacted the overnight figures.

One industry source was not convinced, mind. “The ratings are a problem,” they tell us. “They can talk all they like about young viewers but they’re still down from the specials and down from the Jodie [Whittaker] series. I imagine serious conversations are happening. Disney will want to see results.”

Speaking of the Mouse House, ratings analyst Parrot Analytics tell us that Doctor Who was the most in-demand UK-originating show with U.S. audiences during its early release, although it didn’t have enormous competition in this realm ( Bridgerton counts as U.S.-originated while Baby Reindeer had been out for a month by the time Doctor Who launched). It reached a high of seventh on Disney+’s list of most in-demand series, Parrot adds, trailing the likes of The Simpsons and the Star Wars offshoots.

Considering its marketing might and budget, a senior U.S. ratings source positions these figures as “underwhelming,” although they acknowledge Doctor Who has long struggled attracting mainstream audiences in the U.S. “Okay but not stellar,” was the simple verdict from a Disney insider about the internal view on its performance.

All eyes now on the upcoming season, which is in the can and due to launch next year, along with a long-rumored set of spin-offs that comprise the new ‘Whoniverse’ including The War Between the Land and the Sea. Fans were delighted when this spin-off was alluded to in the ’73 Yards’ episode of the latest season and Deadline is told that shooting will commence in September.

One of our sources close to the production believes Disney will “need to make a decision” on its future relationship with the show soon after The War Between the Land and the Sea wraps, and this could have a bearing on how long the in-demand Gatwa — who will lead a West End production of The Importance of Being Earnest at the end of this year — remains Doctor. Although the next season has wrapped, this source predicts the final episode has been left open-ended, with the possibility remaining that Gatwa could regenerate into his successor if he chooses to exit. Gatwa’s agents hadn’t responded to Deadline’s request for comment by press time.

Sources are split on the extent to which Disney pulling out will harm the show’s future. While it would no doubt be embarrassing, Doctor Who’s mega-budget increase is perhaps less noticeable on screen than first thought, one source says, positing that Disney tentpoles like The Mandalorian look far more expensive on screen. But another says it will be a “disaster.” “Given that Disney has spent all of this money, the question becomes what the BBC will do if they pull out,” this source says.

For Doctor Who mag’s Quinn, the latest season could have done with a sprinkling more of Barbie star Gatwa, especially if he chooses to call it quits. “I don’t feel ready to say goodbye to his Doctor yet,” he adds. “He’s one of the few actors you can’t take your eyes off.”

There are naysayers, but Quinn remains hopeful Disney will remain steadfast in the Tardis for years to come. “When Doctor Who came back in ’05 having been off air since the late ’80s it wasn’t a massive overnight success and there wasn’t Doctor Who mania immediately,” he adds.

“I think it will grow. I would imagine Disney will want to remain involved.”

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