Donald Trump's selection of JD Vance as running mate is a sign of weakness

Before South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem blew herself up with Puppygate, I had assumed she would be Trump's pick for running mate. She has the Mar-a-Lago Barbie look, which Trump obviously loves, and putting a woman on the ticket might have helped with those suburban moms who don't like him very much. When she fell out of contention I figured Trump would choose North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a "central casting" guy who looks like he could be on money and would be the other half of a "successful billionaire" ticket. These were choices that made some political sense in a way that even Trump would see as useful to his campaign. There were others — Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina could theoretically attract some Black voters, but more likely might reassure some white suburban types who are uncomfortable with all the racism. And Florida Senator Marco Rubio might have been a draw for the Latino vote and, again, some of those squeamish suburban voters who are a little freaked out about the anti-immigrant rhetoric and see Rubio as more of an establishment type.

Trump's been openly begging the anti-abortion zealots to back off (temporarily) because he has "to win elections." And the word was that after the assassination attempt on Saturday, he had ordered that all the speakers tone down their speeches so that they could exploit the moment and "bring the country together" in its time of crisis. (The first two nights of the convention and several nasty Truth Social posts by the candidate quickly proved that to be a fleeting idea.) In several interviews, he has shown that he understands where his campaign's weaknesses are which would argue for him to use this most high-profile decision in the campaign to try to shore them up.

So of all the choices discussed over the past few weeks, Senator JD Vance of Ohio was the guy who made the least sense. He's a very aggressive MAGA extremist and his state of Ohio is already in the bag. Most importantly, he appeals to none of the constituencies Trump needs to get him over top. Trump's not the sharpest tool in the shed on many levels but he usually has a feral instinct for branding and this ticket is the "ultra-MAGA" ticket which seems like the least likely to gain him any votes he didn't already have. As the Washington Monthly notes, it may not be a very good bet:

Vance was a vociferous Never Trumper until he decided to run for the Senate and assessed that jumping on the Trump train was his best bet to win it. There are seemingly hours of interviews and articles filled with insulting quotes from Vance about Trump and harsh criticism of his character, intelligence and policies. These are going to be played over and over again in the campaign and many have already gone viral. Considering Trump's penchant for vengeance it's hard to imagine why he is rewarding such behavior by offering Vance this plum job.

It's not unheard of for powerful men to reward former enemies if they are properly remorseful and are willing to demonstrate their newfound fealty in the most public sycophantic fashion. Often they even prefer it if the supplicant is insincere and only doing it because they have been forced into the submissive position. It shows dominance and serves as a lesson to others. Trump may very well feel that way toward Vance, whose abrupt abandonment of his conspicuous Never Trump position to immediately morph into an ardent MAGA cultist has been startlingly flamboyant, even among a great crowd of former mainstream Republicans who've given up every shred of personal integrity to seek his favor. But does he really believe he can trust him? (Could anyone?) On the other hand, he trusted his most faithful lapdog, former Vice President Mike Pence, to follow his orders to usurp the Constitution and look where it got him. Maybe he sees Vance's raw ambition as a better bet.

According to the New York Times, advisers such as Kellyanne Conway tried to convince Trump that someone like Rubio would be the best choice and none other than Rupert Murdoch himself apparently begged Trump not to pick Vance in favor of Burgum. The decision went back and forth for weeks. But Vance was championed by three people Trump apparently trusts above all the others. One was Tucker Carlson, who lobbied hard for Vance, who'd been a regular fixture on his Fox News show, impressing Trump with "those beautiful blue eyes" which he apparently mentioned frequently. Carlson is more enamored of Vance's embrace of authoritarianism and when he found out that Trump might be souring on Vance last month he called him from his roadshow in Australia:

[Carlson]delivered an apocalyptic warning, according to two people briefed on their conversation. He told Mr. Trump that Mr. Rubio could not be trusted — that he would work against him and would try to lead America into nuclear war. Mr. Carlson, who declined to comment for this article, told Mr. Trump that Mr. Burgum could not be trusted, either.

Mr. Carlson told Mr. Trump in that June phone call that he believed that if he chose a “neocon” as his V.P. — an abbreviation for Republicans who favor using U.S. power to implant democracy abroad — then the U.S. intelligence agencies would have every incentive to assassinate Mr. Trump in order to get their preferred president.

Trump apparently found that convincing which is terrifying in itself.

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The other two top advisers who sealed the deal for Vance were Trump's sons. Don Jr. and Eric. Don Jr. had been friends with Vance since he won his Senate election and both he and Eric are steeped in the online MAGA world and re participants in the lucrative MAGA "conference" and speech circuit. Vance is their kind of guy. NBC reported that in the final days before Trump made the decision, Trump was leaning in the direction of Burgum, causing the boys to go ballistic:

“Don Jr. and Eric went bats—- crazy: ‘Why would you do something so stupid? He offers us nothing,’” a longtime Republican operative familiar with the discussion told NBC News. “They were basically all like ‘JD, JD, JD,’” the operative said.

It's unknown how much influence Tucker Carlson would have in a new Trump administration but it seems pretty clear that Don Jr. and Eric will be heavily involved even though they will be carrying on the family business with lucrative overseas ventures cropping up all over the place.

Don Jr. explained that he will be exercising veto power over personnel decisions that don't carry the MAGA party line:

I have to say that in all the articles written about this decision, what comes across to me is that Donald Trump has lost a step. Maybe he's just so cocky about winning that he doesn't think it matters, which is possible. But from the way it sounds, he let himself be steamrolled into picking someone who on some level he knows wasn't the best choice for his electoral prospects. Maybe the 78 year old Trump is just as weak and tired as that other old guy he's running against.