Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent ’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: Democrats and Republicans in key legislative races are locked in a tight fundraising battle, more than $24 million in ad buys have been reserved related to Question 3 and a new Nevada poll shows a majority of Democrats think Biden is too old to run for president.
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We want to hear from you! Send us your questions, comments, observations, jokes or what you think we should be covering or paying attention to. Though reporter Eric Neugeboren has temporarily usurped Tabitha Mueller’s role in compiling this newsletter edition, she will return next week after a much-needed vacation. You can reach Tabitha at tabitha@thenvindy.com .
By the Numbers:
- $2.3 million was raised by candidates in the 10 legislative races most likely to determine whether Democrats gain a supermajority.
- 111 days until the general election (but who’s counting?)
- 55 percent of Nevada Democrats think Joe Biden is too old to run, a new poll shows.
The campaign finance breakdown
By Eric Neugeboren and Gabby Birenbaum
For the penultimate time before the general election, campaign finance reports in federal and state races were released Monday, giving us an under-the-hood look into the campaign apparatuses in contests that could determine control of Congress and the Nevada Legislature.
Beyond the many (many, many, many) numbers to crunch, here are some of the questions we’re seeking to answer:
- All Nevada congressional Democrats have raised more money than their Republican opponents — but by how much?
- In the 10 races most likely to determine whether Democrats gain a supermajority in the Legislature, the GOP candidate had a fundraising lead in six of them — but just how close are the margins?
- Millions have been poured into key ballot initiatives, including ones on voter ID and abortion rights — who is bankrolling these efforts?
- Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) has more than $1 million in cash on hand — but without a competitive election this year, what’s it being used for?
- And Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s campaign apparatus is ramping up efforts to ensure he keeps his veto power — but which races is he focusing on?
For answers to some of these questions, click here to read more about the takeaways from the state-level campaign finance reports, and here for a look at the federal races.
What we’re reading and writing
Washoe County certifies recount after refusing to do so last week by Tabitha Mueller
I guess cooler heads prevailed?
Biden still scheduled to visit Nevada this week following Trump rally shooting by Isabella Aldrete
#WeStillMatter
Kennedy touts his ‘anti-establishment’ approach at FreedomFest by Isabella Aldrete
Nothing screams “anti-establishment” like the last name Kennedy
AG asks Supreme Court to order Washoe County to certify recount results by Tabitha Mueller
AG+SOS = big mad
Rosen 'focused on my own re-election campaign', declines to say if Biden should drop out by Gabby Birenbaum
A whole lot of nothing
Jacky Rosen raises record $7.6 million in second quarter by Eric Neugeboren
Mo’ money, less problems
Brown raises $4 million in second quarter as Nevada Senate race heats up by Gabby Birenbaum
It’s Brown’s best fundraising quarter to date
In Las Vegas, Kamala Harris defends Biden, vies for Asian American support by Isabella Aldrete and Eric Neugeboren
Asian Americans mostly backed Biden four years ago and are becoming more powerful in the Silver State
Indy Poll Watch
YouGov, July 4-12
- 800 registered voters
- Margin of error: 4.7 percent
President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points in Nevada in the latest YouGov poll, which was taken after Biden’s faltering debate performance last month and before the attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday.
The survey also found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) leading her Republican opponent, Sam Brown, by 7 points. This continues a trend of Biden significantly polling behind Democratic Senate candidates, an indication of his unpopularity at the top of the ticket.
Additionally, 70 percent of poll respondents said the 81-year-old Biden is too old to run for another term, including the 55 percent of them who identify as Democrat.
— Eric Neugeboren
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: The Question 3 ad surge
A nonprofit formed last month called Fair Government Nevada has bought $15 million worth of ad space in the fall to advocate against the Question 3 ballot initiative , which would open Nevada’s primaries to all voters and shift general election contests to ranked-choice voting for non-presidential races.
The group was registered June 18 by Daniel Bravo, a lawyer who typically backs Democratic causes, and lists its treasurer as Shelbie Swartz, the executive director of the progressive group Battle Born Progress. It raised no money from April through June.
However, the ad reservation does not guarantee that the ads will go live, and a person with knowledge of the reservation said the group is eyeing ad spots on other topics such as voter ID that could take precedence over the Question 3 reservation.
The ad buy brings the total amount of spending on Question 3 to more than $24 million, according to ad tracking service AdImpact. Another PAC — Vote Yes on 3 — previously reserved more than $9 million in ad space for this fall.
The spending reflects the increasing prominence of the ballot question, which would become part of the state Constitution if a majority of voters support it this year. The question was supported by 53 percent of voters in 2022 and needs another affirmative vote to become law.
— Eric Neugeboren
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (7/10-7/16)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: One Nation (anti-Jacky Rosen) - Boondoggle Spending
- Began airing: 7/9
- Total spend: $703,118
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 7.7 million
- U.S. Senate race: Jacky Rosen - Abortion Rights
- Began airing: 7/5
- Total spend: $381,962
- Ad impressions: 9.5 million
- U.S. Senate race: Majority Forward (pro-Jacky Rosen) - Siga Luchando
- Began airing: 6/12
- Total spend: $278,264
- Ad impressions: 544,000
- U.S. Senate race: Duty and Honor (pro-Jacky Rosen) - Protect the Border
- Began airing: 6/19
- Total spend: $237,543
- Ad impressions: 2.6 million
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
Lombardo goes after legislative Dems at conference — In a brief speech in Las Vegas at the start of FreedomFest, a conference billed as the "world's largest gathering of free minds,” Gov. Joe Lombardo condemned legislative Democrats for their lack of support for school choice legislation. He also touted his record 75 vetoes last year, which he said were because of Democrats’ “bullshit” efforts to pursue “bad legislation.”
Do the campaigns no longer view Nevada as a swing state? — In the eyes of the Biden and Trump campaigns, #wedontmatter. The Biden campaign believes its clearest path to victory is by winning the so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to a campaign memo , which also noted that the Sun Belt states (including Nevada) “are not out of reach.” Meanwhile, the Trump campaign reportedly views Nevada as unrecoverable for Biden, who carried the state by more than 2 percent four years ago but has trailed in almost all polling this year. A Republican presidential candidate has not won the Silver State since 2004.
ACLU joins Washoe recount suit — The American Civil Liberties Union of Nevada filed an amicus brief in support of the lawsuit asking the Nevada Supreme Court to certify the primary election results in Washoe County. The suit, brought by the attorney general’s office on behalf of the secretary of state, came one day after Washoe County Commissioners made an unprecedented decision to not certify the county’s recount results.
Brief filed in lawsuit seeking to block election worker law — Months after a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit brought by prominent GOP attorney Sigal Chattah and far-right activist Robert Beadles to overturn a state law protecting election workers, an opening brief was filed last week in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals that argues the law is overly broad and vague. The law, SB406 , made it a felony offense to threaten, intimidate or coerce an election worker with the intent to interfere with their performance in carrying out an election or to retaliate against them for performing their duties.
— Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
Wednesday, July 17: In the final leg of his trip to Las Vegas this week, Biden is delivering the keynote address at the annual conference for UnidosUS, the country’s largest Latino civil rights organization.
Wednesday, July 17: Nevada Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) is hosting a fundraiser on behalf of her political action committee, the Female Majority PAC. The event will include an appearance by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat and potential future presidential candidate.
— Eric Neugeboren
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
We’ll see you next week.
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