2024 Open Championship: Favorite Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The 152nd edition of The Open Championship, the world's oldest professional golf tournament, begins on Thursday, July 18, at Royal Troon in Troon, Ayrshire, Scotland.

Royal Troon, designed by George Straith and Willie Fernie in 1888, has hosted the tournament ten times in its illustrious history. Last time here in 2016, Henrik Stenson out-dueled Phil Mickelson in a two-man battle on Sunday to win by three strokes. Other notables to win at Royal Troon include Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Watson, Tom Weiskopf, and Arnold Palmer. For a deeper dive into Royal Troon, check out my course preview article from Monday.

A star-studded 156-player field is unsurprisingly on tap this week in Scotland, headlined by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, 2014 Open champion Rory McIlroy, reigning PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele, and two-time U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau. Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Smith, Tony Finau, and defending champion Brian Harman are other notables in the field. Cameron Davis is the only player ranked inside the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking who didn't qualify for the tournament.

Related: The Open Championship 2024: Course & Field Preview, Key Stats, + Odds

Last time, Brian Harman nearly went wire-to-wire at Hoylake to break through for his first major championship victory. Harman cruised to a five-under 65 in the second round to leap to the top of the leaderboard, and he never looked back. The former Georgia Bulldog held steady on Sunday despite intense heckling from the English crowd, as he carded two clutch birdies at the 14th and 15th holes to win by six strokes. Sepp Straka, Jason Day, Tom Kim, and Jon Rahm all finished tied for second.

Let's get into my favorite plays this week at Royal Troon!

FAVORITE OUTRIGHTS

Collin Morikawa (+1800 BetRivers Enhanced)

No player without a win so far this season has been playing better than the 2021 Open Champion, as Morikawa hasn't finished worse than 16th in nine consecutive starts since the Masters in mid-April. Despite coming up empty-handed time and time again when contending recently, I'm still incredibly high on Morikawa's chances this week considering how well-rounded his game has been.

Not only has the two-time major champion returned to elite form with his irons during this recent hot stretch, as he's gained over 2.5 strokes to the field in five of his last six outings. But Morikawa has also gained strokes in ALL FOUR primary categories in four of his past five starts, and he nearly did it again last week in Scotland but dropped 0.063 strokes from off the tee. Hard to penalize him for that one.

Morikawa has suddenly pieced together a lofty short game to pair alongside his ball-striking prowess, gaining over 2.5 strokes in eight of his last nine appearances. He's gained over one stroke around the green in six straight starts and popped for over three strokes putting in six of nine. The substantial improvements Morikawa has made in these areas have him playing the best golf of his career, even if the win hasn't occurred yet.

Among all players in the field this week, Morikawa ranks first in Par-4s: 350-400 Yards, third in SG: Tee To Green, third in Fairways Gained, fifth in Proximity 175-200 Yards, seventh in SG: Around The Green, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 12th in Greens Gained, 17th in SG: Approach, and 19th in Par-3s: 200+ Yards over the past 24 rounds. It's also worth noting the California native ranks 14th in SG: Putting over the past 12 rounds. Outside of SG: Putting on slow greens (a wonky statistic in its own right), Morikawa ranks inside the top 40 in every metric I'm looking at this week.

While Morikawa has missed the cut in each of his last two Open Championships, he's still amassed an impressive five top-14 finishes in his other six major championships since St. Andrews in 2022. With much-improved form entering the tournament compared to the past two years, plus, a sound overall track record playing links golf, I'm willing to roll the dice on Morikawa for the second straight major. He's going to win something big here real soon.

Tom Kim (+5000 FanDuel)

Kim's coming off a splendid Sunday in Scotland, as he gained nearly 4.5 strokes to the field to vault up the leaderboard and finish T15. The 22-year-old budding superstar has impressively righted his season after a rocky start, showing incredible poise and patience for a player of his age. That's precisely the mentality required to become Champion Golfer of the Year.

Given Kim's lack of distance from off the tee, it's not surprising that he's fared the best at The Open among the four major championships so far in his young career. Not only did the South Korean post his best major finish last year at Royal Liverpool (T2), but he placed T47 in his tournament debut at St. Andrews in 2022 as a 20-year-old. Like most Open venues, staying clean from tee to green is critical to success at Royal Troon, and that's been Kim's bread and butter since he turned pro. The three-time PGA Tour winner fittingly ranks 12th on the PGA Tour this season in Driving Accuracy and fifth in Distance From Edge of Fairway.

Similar to last week, Kim again rates out among the top 10 players in the field, according to my model. The 2022 Presidents Cup stud ranks 10th in Scrambling, 16th in Par-3s: 200+ Yards, 17th in Par-4s: 450-500 Yards, 18th in SG: Tee To Green, 22nd in Bogey Avoidance, 24th in Total Driving, and 24th in Proximity 200-225 Yards over the past 24 rounds. It's also worth noting that Kim has gained over 3.5 strokes ball striking in six of his past eight outings while also gaining strokes in the short-game categories in 10 of 11.

Another underrated wrinkle in Kim's game is how comfortable he's been playing across the globe on various professional tours. Not only has he finished inside the top 15 in all three appearances at The Renaissance Club in Scotland, but he also placed T18 at Wentworth Club (UK) and T6 at Le Golf National (France) on the DP World Tour last fall. Then, there's the boatload of Asian Tour experience he's racked up that can't be forgotten about. Regardless of where the tournament's being played, Kim's game can hold up against the best, and I think it's only a matter of time before he takes down his first big one.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Sungjae Im (+7500 FanDuel)

I was on Sungjae last week at the Scottish Open, where the 26-year-old South Korean picked up his seventh top-12 finish in his past nine starts. While the major championships have eluded him so far this year, with three missed cuts in as many attempts, his game is trending in a direction I simply can't ignore at 75/1 odds.

Similar to Morikawa, Im has established a remarkably well-balanced game since turning things around following a disastrous start to the season. The two-time PGA Tour winner gained strokes in all four primary categories two weeks in a row at the Travelers Championship and John Deere Classic, and he nearly did it again in Scotland. Sungjae has now gained strokes off the tee in 11 of his past 12 outings, around the green in 12 of 14, and with the putter in eight of 10. He's also popped for over three strokes with his irons in four of his past six starts. All parts are clicking right now for Sungjae.

Putting the entire picture together, Im has gained over seven strokes to the field six of the last eight times he's tee'd it up. Three of those performances came in Signature Events against the top players on the PGA Tour, suggesting he's plenty capable of hanging with the big dogs right now. It's also worth pointing out that Sungjae has finished T2 and 8th at the Masters in his career, and those experiences should help him handle any nerves from contending during the weekend.

Among all players in the field, Im ranks third in Par-4s: 350-400 Yards, eighth in SG: Around The Green, eighth in Bogey Avoidance, 11th in Scrambling, 16th in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 16th in Par-5s: 550-600 Yards, 19th in SG: Tee To Green, and 22nd in Greens Gained over the past 24 rounds. Shrinking the sample size down to the past 12 rounds, Sungjae jumps up to 15th in SG: Approach and 20th in SG: Putting.

Sungjae's first two Open Championship starts were forgettable, but he did post his best tournament result last year (T20) and gained three strokes to the field in two of four rounds. With momentum on his side, I'll take another chance for the third consecutive week.

Akshay Bhatia (+15000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Winning a major feels like a bit of an ask for the 22-year-old lefty, but he's been racking up incredible experiences all season and has flashed the upside necessary to compete against the best in the world. Coming off a T16 in the last major championship at Pinehurst and back-to-back top-five finishes, I'm willing to take a shot on Bhatia's pure talent at this price tag.

Despite having 150/1 odds, Bhatia rates as the 12th-best player in the field this week, according to my model. The former No. 1 ranked amateur ranks eighth in Fairways Gained, 10th in Par-3s: 200+ Yards, 11th in Proximity 200-225 Yards, 16th in Total Driving, 21st in Greens In Regulation, 24th in Greens Gained, 26th in Par-5s: 550-600 Yards, and 30th in Par-4s: 450-500 Yards over the past 24 rounds. Bhatia also ranks fourth in SG: Putting over the past 12 rounds.

Bhatia won for the second time in his young PGA Tour career earlier this season in Texas, and he's come close to his third title recently. The Wake Forest, North Carolina resident played in the final group alongside Scottie Scheffler on Saturday and Sunday en route to his T5 result at the Travelers Championship. He also should have won the Rocket Mortgage Classic the following week in Detroit but missed a couple of short putts down the stretch to finish runner-up. I'm not going to hold any disdain towards the up-and-coming superstar for falling short on either occasion, and I truly believe it's only going to bode well for him moving forward.

Considering Bhatia has gained strokes off the tee in six consecutive starts, with his irons in four of five, and over two strokes putting in each of the last three, I think his game is balanced enough to contend come this weekend.

All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com *

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