The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated July 27), Taylor Swift’s Billboard 200 reign faces its greatest challenger yet in the form of Eminem’s alter-ego-killing latest.
Will Zach Bryan's 'The Great American Bar Scene' Be the Album to Unseat Taylor Swift Atop the Billboard 200?
Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace) (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope): If you’re a regular reader of The Contenders and are rolling your eyes at yet another “Could [Non- Taylor Swift Artist] Finally Knock Taylor Swift From Atop the Billboard 200?” type headline, it’d be hard to blame you. In the past three months, we’ve seen such charges mounted by the likes of Billie Eilish, Gracie Abrams and (most recently) Zach Bryan, and all have ultimately fallen short: Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has now reigned uninterrupted on the chart for a full 12 weeks, becoming the longest-running No. 1 of her career, and tying Morgan Wallen for the longest consecutive rule of the decade.
But this week, Swift faces a challenger unlike any she’s faced in Poets’ lifetime – from one of just a handful of artists this century who can legitimately claim to be in the same galaxy of commercial success. Eminem , one of the best-selling solo recording artists of all-time – with two RIAA diamond-certified albums to his name, and a stunning 10 consecutive No. 1 sets on the Billboard 200, a streak dating back to 2000’s The Marshall Mathers LP – returns this week with his first new album in four years. What’s more, the set aims to be something of a career bookend for the veteran rapper, as it trumpets The Death of Slim Shady – Em supposedly killing off the alter-ego persona that helped vault him to superstardom a quarter-century ago.
The album is already off to a strong start at streaming, with every one of its 19 tracks – except for the 24-second “All You Got” skit – debuting in the top 100 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart after its Friday (July 12) release, and most of them remaining in the region at mid-week. What’s more, the set already has one pre-certified smash in lead single “Houdini” — which debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 in June and is still lingering around the top 20 – and another more modest hit in the Big Sean and BabyTron collab “Tobey,” which vaults 95-27 on the chart in its first full week of release.
Streaming will have to make up the bulk of The Death of Slim Shady’s consumption, as the album has not yet been released in physical form. (The CD version of it is currently scheduled for a Sept. 13 release, with cassette and vinyl due on Oct. 25). However, there were two D2C digital editions of the album for purchase, both available for a limited time before the set’s release, and both with their own exclusive bonus track – one with “Kyrie & Luka” (featuring 2 Chainz) and one with “Like My Shit” (featuring FIFTEENAFTER) — and a third one was released today, with both bonus tracks and a new “Steve Berman” skit.
Eminem’s prior album, 2020’s Music to Be Murdered By , moved 279,000 in its first week, without the benefit of an advance single or a career-spanning narrative hook. If the rapper’s latest again debuts with a number in the 200,000s, it would mark a bigger week than Swift has had for Poets since its fifth week on top, for the chart week dated June 1. And if Em is able to secure the No. 1 with Death of Slim Shady , his 11th consecutive all-new album to hit No. 1 would again tie Ye (formerly Kanye West) — who extended his own run earlier this year with the Ty Dolla $ign teamup Vultures 1 — for the longest such streak in Billboard 200 history.
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic) : Are there any cards left for Taylor Swift to play to maintain her already-historic Poets run atop the Billboard 200? With Swift’s restocked exclusive CD variants of the album shipping last week – helping Poets to fend off Zach Bryan’s six-digit first full week for The Great American Bar Scene , and securing Swift her first 12-week run at No. 1 – and a truly formidable opponent arriving this week with Eminem’s latest, it certainly feels like the greatest chance yet that the blockbuster finally cedes the top spot.
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Still, there is more history for Swift to make with one more frame at the chart’s apex: a 13th consecutive week at No. 1 would make it just the second album to reign consecutively for that long on the 200 following its debut, tying the mark set nearly a half-century ago by Stevie Wonder’s Songs in the Key of Life . Never count out Taylor Swift until every last sale and stream is counted.
IN THE MIX
ENHYPEN, Romance: Untold (Belift/Genie/Stone) : In a less loaded week, we might have been talking about whether South Korean pop group ENHYPEN was headed for its first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200. The boy band’s second Korean-language full-length album follows last year’s Orange Blood EP, which brought ENHYPEN to the chart’s top five, and is available for purchase in a stunning 17 different CD variants — including exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart and the group’s webstore; all with collectible paper ephemera like photocards, stickers, and a poster – as well as a pair of vinyl editions.
Megan Moroney, Am I Okay? (Sony/Columbia) : While Megan Moroney has yet to score another radio hit on the scale of her 2022 breakthrough “Tennessee Orange,” the country singer-songwriter has developed an impressive fan following, which looks ready to pay off with second full-length Am I Okay? The set is off to a strong start in both sales and streams, with the addictive title track leading the way on DSPs, and the album being sold in three deluxe CD boxed sets and three different vinyl editions, including a signed version exclusive to her webstore.
Clairo, Charm (Clairo Records) : After reaching the top 20 on Polydor/Republic in 2021 with sophomore album Sling , Clairo went independent – self-releasing her third album Charm on Friday. The singer-songwriter born Claire Cottrill does not seem to be suffering commercially for her move: The warmer-sounding album already has a streaming hit in lead single “Sexy to Someone,” and appears set for impressive first-week sales – helped by eight different-colored vinyl variants and four CD boxed sets, three with a T-shirt and one with a handkerchief – as well as perhaps her best showing yet on the Billboard 200.
Will It Be Taylor Swift vs. Bestie Gracie Abrams for No. 1 on the Billboard 200 Next Week?
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