Emmy Nominations Analysis: Fresh Blood Livens Up The Race For TV Gold

I often start analysis of the Emmy nominations by stating how predictable the nominations are, generally with the same shows dominating year after year after year. Well, the overall list of nominees announced this morning was predictable, but it was because pundits largely were forecasting success for shows that aren’t always the same old-same old.

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Chief among them was the startling fact that of the eight nominees for marquee Best Drama Series category, only one of them, The Crown, was in the running last year; that is something that hasn’t happened in half a century when The Waltons , which had won the previous year, was the only returning nominee in 1974. But keep in mind there were fewer nominees in those days (six), so this is pretty remarkable. This change is possible because last year’s winner Succession and perennial nominee Better Call Saul — which went 0-for-53 in Emmy noms — were in their final seasons, and five other nominated dramas did not have new episodes this time around.

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There even were more returnees in the Limited or Anthology Series category, usually full of one-off programs, as previous winners Fargo and True Detective were back with new editions.

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The Comedy Series category doesn’t look very much like last year either, with only reigning champ The Bear, Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building back in the race. They now are competing against five other shows they didn’t face last year including past nominees Hacks, Curb Your Enthusiasm and What We Do in the Shadows — the latter two in their final season — and first-timers Palm Royale (Season 1) and Reservation Dogs (in its final Season 3).

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And for the first time in my memory, recent at least, HBO is not one of the two leading networks/streamers , coming in third behind Netflix and runner-up FX, the latter having a banner year led by the top 2 nomination getters, Shō gun and The Bear . Add to all this a whopping 36 first-time performer nominees, and you have the potential for an Emmy ceremony that will be livened up by participants not necessarily as jaded as the usual years when the same faces are in the room. In fact, the same three shows — Succession, Beef and The Bear — dominated the 2023 Emmys as well as every other awards show including Golden Globes, Guilds, Critics Choice, making it appear that industry voters only watched those three series. At least that won’t happen this year.

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Well, sure, The Bear could repeat in Comedy Series for its second season, but even with its record-breaking 23 nominations it is no sure thing, as last week’s complete TCA Awards snub of it indicated. The critics went with Hacks, which came back with a highly praised and banner third season, and I would also say the final year for Curb — which never has won the category despite 10 previous nominations — could be a factor here as well, making for a not entirely predictable outcome.

Last year’s The Bear dominance — it had 10 total wins including the Creative Arts categories — also was due in part to FX’s/Hulu’s shrewd scheduling move of debuting Season 2 as voting for Season 1 was in progress. This year it did the same with Season 3, but some are questioning its viability as a comedy, at least compared to others in the category, so we could have a race.

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I’m also happy to note that this year also proves the adage, “if at first you don’t succeed, try try again .” My favorite, The Morning Show, is among the newbies in the marquee program races, finally scoring a Best Drama Series nomination for its combustible third season with 16 noms overall, a barn-burning 10 of them going to its cast members, the most acting noms for any series. Reservation Dogs, The Gilded Age and Slow Horses are others finally cracking the code after being around for a while and now getting their over due.

I would say that all of this might add up to good news for the Television Academy, since it is coming off record-low ratings for the January 15 Emmy broadcast on Fox. Granted that one was plagued by having to move back four months due to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes, and by the time it aired, people might have forgotten what was even nominated . It was a shame because it was one of the best-produced Emmy shows ever, and now smartly the Television Academy has invited the same team at Jesse Collins Entertainment to produce this year’s Primetime Emmys on September 15, just a scant eight months since the last one; it’s the first time two Primetime Emmy ceremonies will happen in the same calendar year. Certainly this varied and diverse list of nominees ought to add excitement because it definitely reflects what has been a vital and terrific TV year, this despite all the production headaches brought about due to the strikes. Who knew?

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In fact, I would say the problem was not lack of quality but rather too much quality — particularly in the Limited Series category, which had a wealth of magnificent entries but only five nominee slots to honor them, unlike the eight each for Drama and Comedy Series. I could name many including All the Light We Cannot See, We Were the Lucky Ones, Expats, Franklin, Fellow Travelers, Apples Never Fall, The Sympathizer, Feud: Capote vs. the Swans and many, many more that deserved nominations for Best Limited or Anthology Series but lost out due to the fact that the Academy has not seen fit to expand the category. If Shō gun’s last minute move from Limited to Drama Series elibility hadn’t ocurred it would be even more glaring. C’mon, guys, let’s make a change.

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The same goes for the Limited/Anthology/TV Movie acting categories. In a year where the likes of superb performances from Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman and the cast of Expats, Jessica Lange in The Great Lillian Hall, and on and on don’t even make the cut, well, what a shame.

I wrote a piece a few weeks ago on the potential for some major Oscar crossover, and we got it. Robert Downey Jr.m who’s up for Supporting Actor in a Limited Series for The Sympathizer, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, vying for Guest Actress in a Comedy for Only Murders in the Building, could join Helen Hunt, Helen Mirren and George C. Scott in the exclusive club of actors who won an Oscar and an Emmy in the same calendar year.

And it doesn’t stop there. Jamie Lee Curtis and Olivia Colman, both recent Oscar winners, will give Randolph a run for her money in her category. Plus, this year’s Oscar nominees Lily Gladstone ( Under the Bridge ), Jodie Foster ( True Detective: Night Country) and Ryan Gosling (SNL) also find themselves having to hit the red carpet at the Emmys too. It continues to show the power of that Oscar campaign visibility when it comes to recognition in the Emmy race, which collides with Academy Award season. And let’s not forget the 2024 Oscar show itself, which landed seven nominations including Outstanding Variety Special (Live).

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Finally, congratulations to 91-year-old Carol Burnett and 98-year-old Dick Van Dyke, both of whom have a boatload of Emmys already including one last year for Burnett for her 90th birthday special and a Daytime Emmy for Van Dyke this year for a Days of Our Lives role. Both are up for Primetime Emmys this time around, with Burnett vying for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for Palm Royale, and Van Dyke’s 98 Years of Magic birthday special in the running for Outstanding Variety Special (same category Burnett won last year). Van Dyke got his first Emmy nomination in 1963, the same year Burnett won her second consecutive Emmy. Gotta love this stuff.

ABC will air the 76th annual Primetime Emmy Awards live coast-to-coast on Sunday, September 15. It starts at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET.

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