The tide is turning against Biden — again

MILWAUKEE — The biggest development at the Republican National Convention may be happening nearly 800 miles away, as the push to oust President Joe Biden appears to be once again gaining steam.

Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), who is running for Senate this year, became the latest Democratic lawmaker to call for Biden to step down as the party’s nominee. The number is now approaching two dozen, which might be manageable if Biden clearly had the support of the rank and file.

But an Associated Press poll found that two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw from the race and allow someone else to take his place at the top of the ticket. Less than a third of Democrats were confident in Biden’s ability to serve a second term.

A massive survey of the battleground states by BlueLabs Analytics painted a dire picture of Biden’s reelection prospects while a replacement candidate could fare much better.

The Democratic National Committee is still moving forward with plans for an early virtual roll call to nominate Biden, but now that won’t take place until August . Democrats say the roll call is intended to ensure their ballot access in Ohio, though state lawmakers already moved to allow Biden ballot access in the state by extending the filing deadline. DNC officials argue because of state law, the extension won't take effect until 90 days after it was signed, which would be on Sept. 1 and therefore after the Aug. 7 deadline.

But the move is widely viewed as an attempt to help Biden run out the clock and avoid a mutiny by delegates in Chicago.

Now Biden has himself laid out a circumstance in which he would consider dropping out of the race, something he has recently dismissed as a possibility: if doctors informed him of a serious medical condition.

Whether Biden is setting himself up for a gracious exit or it was just an attempt to reassure Democrats he would not put the country on the line for his own political goals, it will create the impression that his mind can be changed on reelection.

It is abundantly clear that many leading Democrats, including his top former allies, would like Biden to change his mind. But in the days since former President Donald Trump was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania, the pressure campaign has waned.

Even after the NATO summit, capped by an uneven Biden solo press conference, the anticipated flood of Democratic lawmakers calling on his withdrawal never materialized. Most of the Democrats who have publicly sought to push Biden out are in the House, and many are backbenchers.

It had seemed in recent days that time might be on Biden’s side. Trump was back in the spotlight after a failed assassination attempt. Then came the Republican National Convention and Trump’s selection of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) as his running mate. The Democratic National Committee seemed on track to ratify Biden’s nomination as early as this month.

But Biden has given a series of uneven interviews. He made repeated verbal slips in his televised remarks calling for civility after Trump was shot. He misstated parts of a new economic proposal. The Secret Service has been ensnared in a controversy about whether it mishandled Trump’s security. Biden misstated the gender of the agency’s head in an interview. House Democrats were on the cusp of revolting against the DNC’s plan to nominate Biden early.

All this has turned the tide against Biden once again. Trump is only leading Biden by 2.5 points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average. FiveThirtyEight’s model actually predicts a Biden win, although that is at least partially based on adjusted polling for “fundamentals,” such as unspecified economic conditions.

But Democrats are worried in the battleground states, even though most of their Senate candidates there still lead. Some lawmakers say they are looking at internal polling that shows a wipeout.

Biden has done little to calm worries that he is no longer up to the job. Confidence in him among Democratic elites has been in a free fall since a disastrous debate performance on June 27 — a debate Biden’s camp pushed for that was largely conducted according to their terms.

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The BlueLabs Analytics polling suggests that Democrats would need to jettison both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket while also steering clear of other administration figures. That’s a tall order. Governors and other fresh faces have so far been reluctant to express interest in the race. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) received high marks for his handling of the Trump shooting.

Biden has responded to the recent spate of bad news by seeking to shore up his left flank, backing a number of progressive economic and Supreme Court reforms.