Social care body says ‘clear case for change’ as new workforce strategy launched

More than half a million extra roles in social care will be needed in the next 15 years to keep up with demand, a major new workforce strategy for the sector has estimated.

The projection, based on a growing older population as people live longer, came as the latest data showed a vacancy rate in social care that remains at around three times the national average of other economic sectors.

Skills For Care, the strategic workforce development and planning body for adult social care in England , has published a workforce strategy which it says is sorely-needed and should be regularly reviewed in a similar way to the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan.

It calls on the Government to bring in legislation to mandate strategic workforce planning and to work on improving pay, terms and conditions for care workers.

Low pay has long been blamed as one of the main reasons it is difficult to both attract and retain workers in social care, and the strategy – which has been 10 months in the making – recommends improved base pay for workers, possibly through a pay award body like the NHS, with a fair pay agreement for the sector.

Labour’s manifesto promised to “consult widely” on the design of a fair pay agreement “before beginning the process” and said it would learn from countries where such set-ups operate successfully.

Reports had suggested the ambition would be for care workers to be paid at least the real living wage – £12 per hour across the UK or £13.15 in London – but no specific figures were mentioned in the manifesto.

In the workforce strategy, published on Thursday, independent modelling suggested various scenarios each with different estimated annual costings.

These range from £30 million investment from the state each year for enforcing the national living wage and paying for travel time, to £4 billion for aligning pay for care workers with two or more years of experience to NHS pay band 3.

But the organisation said any option would “generate considerable savings for the NHS and in terms of reduced recruitment costs for employers”.

The case for change is clear... A workforce strategy isn’t a nice-to-have, it’s a must-have if we’re going to build the workforce we need for the future

It said a sector-specific minimum wage would make social care more attractive in the labour market, helping to attract more people, while a pay scale to recognise development and experience would help to keep workers.

It called on the Government to “lead joined-up, consistent action on pay (start 2024) with local government, unions and employers over several years which offers improved pay and quality of role for people working in social care”.

Looking to the future and as an illustration on why change is needed to keep people in the sector, the strategy estimated that 540,000 additional social care posts will be needed by 2040, with the sharpest need expected to be over the next decade when 430,000 extra posts will be required.

Published alongside the strategy, Skills For Care’s annual workforce data showed that, in the year to March 2024, the workforce in England grew for the second year in a row to 1.71 million filled posts, up 4.2%, and vacancies fell by 22,000 to 131,000 on any given day.

But this rate, of 8.3%, was still around three times the average for other sectors and domestic recruitment remained a problem, with the number of posts filled by people with a British nationality having fallen by 30,000 – a drop of 70,000 over the last two years.

The 12-month period saw 105,000 international recruits, up 25,000 on the previous year and a sign that people coming from overseas were the main driver of the increase in filled posts and the fall in vacancies, Skills for Care said.

Professor Oonagh Smyth, the organisation’s chief executive and co-chairwoman of the workforce strategy steering group, said what they have come up with is “something that will help to tackle some of the most profound challenges we face”.

She said: “The case for change is clear. We’re going to need hundreds of thousands more care workers, with the right skills and values, over the next 15 years – yet right now the sector still has a vacancy rate around three times higher than that of the wider economy and is struggling to compete in local job markets.

“A workforce strategy isn’t a nice-to-have, it’s a must-have if we’re going to build the workforce we need for the future.”

Long service is poorly rewarded – with new staff getting just 8p less per hour than someone with more than five years’ experience

Sir David Pearson, fellow co-chairman, described the strategy as “the most important initiative in social care at the current time” and added that the public needs “all the organisations to work together to deliver it, including the Government, local government, regulators and employers”.

Jane Townson, chairwoman of the Care Provider Alliance and chief executive of the Homecare Association, said many care workers face poverty and food insecurity due to low pay, and called for change.

“Long service is poorly rewarded – with new staff getting just 8p less per hour than someone with more than five years’ experience”, she said, insisting the priority “must be on recruiting, training and retaining new staff”.

Care England, which represents many care providers across the country, welcomed a strategy it said “should act as a framework to ensure all parts of the system work collaboratively”, adding that only then “can we deliver a professionally qualified workforce that has the recognition and respect that it so clearly deserves”.

The Local Government Association called for “immediate investment” in adult social care to tackle urgent issues as well as a longer-term and sustainable settlement, while NHS Providers said a Government failure to act on the strategy “would have a catastrophic impact” on not only people needing care, but the wider health and care system, insisting “the NHS and social care go hand in hand”.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesman said: “We are determined to tackle head-on the significant challenges social care faces.

“Social care workers make an enormous contribution to society and that’s why we have committed to establishing a Fair Pay Agreement to properly reward their hard work and attract more people to the sector.

“We will undertake a deep-rooted programme of reform to create a National Care Service which will provide everyone with the care they deserve.”