Emerson College/The Hill poll: More eyes on Virginia ahead of 2024 election

Watch the Digital Desk segment with Emerson College Polling in the video player.

PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) – Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election and state elections, Your Local Election Headquarters is looking into how Virginians will vote and how they feel about the state of the country, the Commonwealth and the government.

While most Virginia voters said they would vote for former President Donald Trump in the Presidential election, it’s a close race against President Joe Biden. 45.4% said they will vote for Trump, 43.4% said they will vote for Biden, and 11.2% of voters remain undecided. Take a look at the graph, below.

A new Emerson College Polling/ The Hill survey. It shares the latest polling information on who Virginians will vote for, how they feel about where the country and state is headed, and the most critical issues facing the state.

The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. 1,000 participants voted via online panels, landline, and via mobile phones between July 14-15, 2024.

“This poll has firmly put Virginia on the map as a potential swing state, so I think expect to see more ads, expect to see potential visits from the Trump campaign that might not have happened otherwise,” said Senior Director of Emerson College Polling, Matt Taglia.

Moving towards the election, Taglia said there will be some additional eyes on the Commonwealth.

“I think the importance is to see how exactly things have changed since 2020,” said Taglia.

Taglia spoke to WAVY at the Digital Desk about the results. Watch the segment in the video player on this page.

“A tied race in Virginia is not what you want if you’re the Biden campaign,” said Taglia. “It’s a state they won by about 10 points in 2020. This is not good news for the Biden campaign, showing the Trump campaign is certainly competitive here.”

Of the 11.2% of people who said they were undecided, most said they will vote for Biden if they had to choose. 55% said they would lean towards voting for Biden, compared to 45% who said they would lean towards voting for Trump.

Ultimately, how undecided Virginians choose to vote will make the election tighter. Factoring in the undecided voters, the match up is closer to 50-50, with 50.4% of Virginians supporting Trump and 49.6% supporting Biden.

According to the data, undecided voters can play an important role in this election.

Let’s look at how those with political party affiliations might vote. Of the Virginia voters affiliated with a political party, 46.4% of Independents would vote for Trump, 38.4% for Biden and 15.2% remain undecided.

“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president now essentially tied with Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”

Independent voters can play a deciding role in the election.

In the 2020 Presidential election, 51.6% of voters said they voted for Biden, 41.7% said they voted for Trump, 2.1% voted for someone else, and 4.6% did not vote.

Of voters in the Commonwealth affiliated with a political party, more are affiliated with the Democratic party. 39.6% are Democrat, 31.8% are Republican, and 28.6% are Independent or other.

Hear from Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics in the video player.

What happens when third-party candidates are placed on the ballot? According to the polling data, Trump’s lead increases. Take a look at the graph, below.

According to the data, 42.9% would vote for Trump, 38% for Biden, 7.5% for Robert Kennedy Jr., 1.7% for Cornel West, 1.7% for Jill Stein, and less than 1% for Chase Oliver. In this scenario, 7.8% of voters remain undecided.

“I think the headline there is Kennedy,” said Taglia. “Some of these other candidates like Cornel West, Jill Stein, they are relatively known commodities at least as far as third parties go. They do attract some vote share, but Kennedy is the one who could really play a spoiler in some of these states.”

The polling data shows minority and younger voters being attracted to Kennedy. There is also some defection from Independents.

“That will certainly play a part if and when he is on the ballots in these states,” said Taglia. “I think it could be anywhere on election day at least somewhere in the 5% range potentially.”

According to Taglia, the data shows there is desire for another option.

“In Virginia, he [Kennedy] is getting some votes from the traditional Democratic coalition, some younger voters, some minority voters and Independents, that’s a little harder if you’re the Biden campaign,” said Taglia. “We can see some indication there that these are presumably Biden’s voters to lose” in a normal.”

It’s still a minority of the votes, said Taglia, but with close race margins, he says those votes can make a huge difference.

Will voters stay loyal to their political party affiliations? A small percentage is voting outside of their party.

“It’s not something that I would dwell on,” said Taglia. “If there were really substantial numbers going for one candidate or the other, then that would be a red flag to me.”

Under the about 15% range, that defection is not necessarily something to look at for broader trends, said Taglia.

About 7.4% of Democrats said they would vote for Trump, while 4.8% of Republicans said they would vote for Biden.

What could be playing a role in how Virginians will vote?

Most voters feel the United States is generally on the wrong track. 29.3% of voters feel the country is moving in the right direction, while a larger group, 70.7% feel the country is on the wrong track.

Democrats were evenly split. 50% said the country is on the wrong track and 50% said the country is moving in the right direction.

It is starker with Republicans. 94.3% of Republicans said the country is moving on the wrong track. Only 5.7% believe the country is headed in the right direction. Independents also said the country is on the wrong track, at 73%, and 27%, said the country is generally headed in the right direction.

When split up in age groups, the group that felt strongest the country is on the wrong track was voters aged 30-39, at 79.6%. All age groups overwhelmingly said the country is on the wrong track.

Most voters disapprove with the job Biden is doing as President. 52.9% of people disapprove, 37.4% approve and 9.7% felt neutral or had no opinion.

Democrats found Biden more favorable with 67% approving of the job he is doing. Republicans mostly disapprove, at 91.1%. Independents also disapprove at 57.7%.

“He’s [Biden’s] got an uphill battle here, because he has to convince folks that the country is headed in the right direction, that he’s doing a good job, but also that in two, three, four years from it’s going to be in an even better place,” said Taglia.

With recent conversations over whether Biden should step down, where does Vice President Kamala Harris fit in a hypothetical match-up with Trump?

“The headline from that question was that it really doesn’t move the needle,” said Taglia.

In the hypothetical election, 44.5% of Virginians said they would vote for the Vice President, 46.7% for Trump and 8.7% are undecided. In this matchup, undecided voters could make a difference in the outcome.

“I think the important part to take away is that the Democratic side doesn’t necessarily lose ground as the result of Harris at the top of the ticket,” said Taglia. “There’s a lot to be said to be a sitting president, the Democratic nominee, and Vice President Harris doesn’t have the benefit of that right now.”

Taglia said because of campaigning, media attention, and without titles, the data we are seeing right now could be muted support.

Let’s take a closer look at what is happening inside the state and what Virginians care about.

Most Virginians feel the state is headed in the right direction. 59.4% said it is moving in the right direction and 40.6% said it is on the wrong track.

Similar to the country, Democrats are split close to 50-50, 47.9% said it is on the wrong track and 52.1% said it is headed in the right direction. 66.2% of Republicans think it is moving in the right direction and 33.8% feel it is on the wrong track. Independents are similar to Republicans. 62.1% said it is moving in the right direction, and 37.9% said the state is on the wrong track.

Voters were asked about the job Glenn Youngkin is doing as Governor. Most approve of Youngkin’s job. 46.3% approve, 38.1% disapprove and 15.6% are neutral or have no opinion.

For Democrats and Republicans, the data looks to be split on party lines. Most Democrats disapprove, while Republicans and Independents approve.

Another election is coming up for Virginians. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine’s seat is up for election in 2024.

In the U.S. Senate matchup, if it is between Kaine and Republican Hung Cao, most voters said they would vote for Kaine. 48.6% would vote for Kaine, 38.5% for Kao, 3.7% for someone else, and 9.3% are undecided.

What do Virginia voters see as important issues in 2024?

According to the poll, Virginians are looking at the economy, including jobs, inflation and taxes. 39.9% view the economy as the most important issue.

Taglia said the economy and inflation are on the minds of undecided voters.

“These are things that they see everyday when they go to the grocery store or they go to the gas station. They are seeing that, and those things are going to be top of mind,” said Taglia.

The Biden and Trump campaigns will have to speak to that.

“Ultimately, both of them are going to have to make the case that one or the other is going to be better for the economy and will be better for people’s pocketbooks at the end of the day,” said Taglia.

Other issues include, housing affordability (11.5%), immigration (9.2%), threats to democracy (8.7%), education (7.1%), abortion access (6.4%), healthcare (6.4%) and crime (5.7%), something else (4.3%), and foreign policy (0.8%).

All political parties felt the economy was the most important issue: Republican 51.7%, Democrat 31.1%, and Independent 38.9%.

When taking a look at secondary issues, Republicans viewed immigration important, while Democrats viewed housing affordability important.

“For Independents, interestingly, it spreads to democracy,” said Taglia.

In some states, Taglia said abortion is going to play a major role.

“I know it isn’t necessarily a top issue for any party in Virginia, but it is something that is still on voters mind, especially in the states where it will be on the ballot,” said Taglia.

Virginians were asked about abortion laws. Most would like to see the lawn become less strict. 44.1% said less strict, 35.2% said remain as they are and 20.8% said more strict.

Most Democrats want to see less strict laws at 68.2%, more strict at 4.4%, and remain as they are 27.4%. Most Republicans want to see laws become more strict at 42.7%, remain the same at 39.3%, and less strict at 18.3%. The majority of Independents want to see laws remain as they are at 41.6%, 39.3% want to see less strict laws and 19.1% want laws to become more strict.

The majority of both men and women want to see abortion laws become less strict. And, the majority of people up to 49 years old want to see abortion laws become less strict.

We are less than four months out to the November 2024 election day.

Will Virginians turn out to the polls?

Most Virginians said they will vote in the November 2024 Presidential election. 90.2% said they are very likely, 3.9% are somewhat likely, 3.1% are split and 2.8% are not likely to vote at all.

While most Virginia said they will vote, there is a split of how motivated voters are to vote. The poll found 76.2% extremely motivated, 10.9% very motivated, 7.4% somewhat motivated, 3.4% not too motivated, and 2.1% not at all motivated.

In the data, Emerson College Polling has seen somewhat consistently, extremely motivated voters breaking more for Trump than Biden.

“You’re going to see in polling that the folks who are not currently in power are often going to be more motivated to vote, to vote out the current sitting president, but we’re seeing that across the board” said Taglia.

In more recent election years, polls have shown more Democratic enthusiasm against Republicans. Now, that trend seems to be reversing. Taglia said they will continue to keep an eye on that.

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