NH unemployment claims rising, a potential salve for tight labor market

In June 2024, the average number of weekly unemployment claims filed in New Hampshire was just under the number in June 2019, according to the Department of Employment Security. (Courtesy of the N.H. Department of Employment Security)

Years after the pandemic threw businesses into disarray, changing expectations around work and leading to widespread worker shortages, New Hampshire’s workforce demand is still strong. Currently, 85 percent of New Hampshire residents between 25 and 55 are employed, according to the Department of Employment Security.

“Historically (that’s) about as high as New Hampshire gets,” said Richard Lavers, deputy commissioner of the department, in an interview.

Employers are fighting for workers. Some are looking ahead eagerly to potential macroeconomic changes that would ease the hiring headaches, noted David Juvet, senior vice president of public policy at the Business & Industry Association, a statewide trade group.

“Others have just realized that the people aren’t out there,” Juvet said, referring to potential employees. “And so they’re making adjustments to try and get by with the individuals that they have.”

But last month, the department, which processes unemployment insurance claims, released an annual report that indicates an increase in unemployment claims in the state. And Lavers says it could provide a silver lining for the state’s job market.

“This year, employers had much more success in being able to fill their openings going into the summer season,” he said.

Here are three takeaways from the report.

Unemployment claims are rising, but they’re below 2019 levels

The number of Granite Staters filing unemployment claims has risen in recent years, according to Department of Employment Security data. In calendar year 2023, the department processed 25,452 claims, up from 22,683 in 2022 – a 12.2 percent increase.

And the state paid much more in unemployment claims from 2022 to 2023. It paid $35.4 million in 2023, compared to $25.2 million in 2022.

But that increase isn’t necessarily a bad thing, Lavers says. To start, he notes, 2022 was an abnormally low year for unemployment claims, the result of an extremely tight job market and a large number of vacant positions. A rise in unemployment claims is an indication that the labor market has healed somewhat, and that employers aren’t as desperate, according to Lavers.

“Back in 2022, we were actually below 2 percent unemployment,” Lavers said. “That was too low for the purposes of a healthy job market.”

Secondly, while unemployment claim numbers are rising, they are still just below comparable numbers in 2019. In June 2019, the average number of weekly unemployment claims was 3,180; in June 2024, that average was 3,130.

New Hampshire is an anomaly: Last month, the United States saw on average 12 percent more claims than June 2019, and Massachusetts saw 10 percent more.

Most of those unemployed are voluntarily unemployed

New Hampshire’s unemployment rate in 2023 averaged 2.2 percent, down slightly from 2022 when it was 2.3 percent.

But to Lavers, there is a more significant indicator. Among the residents currently making unemployment claims, about two-thirds are voluntarily unemployed, he said, meaning they left their jobs willingly and were not laid off or fired. That metric is measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics using a state-specific survey that features 1,300 Granite Staters.

New Hampshire’s ratio is high and reflects the fact that fewer layoffs are happening as employers clamor to convince their employees to stay. It also demonstrates a workforce looking to improve their work lives and feeling confident enough to leave positions, Lavers said.

“Those numbers are actually healthier than ‘22 and ‘23 when the number of people categorized as unemployed was lower, which came at the same time employers were struggling to fill their openings,” Lavers said.

Hiring is rebounding, but not for all

By some tallies, New Hampshire has grown its workforce since the pandemic. The state has 29,000 more jobs this year than it did before the pandemic, Lavers said, an increase of 4 percent.

Still, that increase is not even across the board. Office-based jobs have largely rebounded. But other areas, such as health care, have not. Hospitals and long-term care facilities continue to struggle to hire nurses, Lavers said.

“You continue to see that, a little bit of a, you know, an unequal experience across sectors,” Lavers said.

Juvet said New Hampshire employers are struggling with other job categories, including retail workers, restaurant workers, and technology and manufacturing workers.

Juvet said there remain fundamental barriers for businesses to be able to attract and hire employees, chief among them being housing and child care costs.

“I think the general high cost of living in New England is a factor, in terms of people considering New England as a place to move to,” Juvet said in an interview. “I think there’s a big gap between the availability of labor in the northern part of the state, say from Plymouth and north, to more southern, more densely populated parts of the state.”

And he said despite some positive movement in unemployment insurance claims, the New Hampshire business community is still struggling when it comes to employees.

“If the labor market is less restrictive than it was, I think it’s a marginal improvement,” Juvet said. “Many employers are still having trouble finding people.”

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