Emerson College/The Hill poll results show Trump up 2 points over Biden in Virginia

PORTSMOUTH, Va. (WAVY) – Ahead of the 2024 Presidential election and state elections, Your Local Election Headquarters is looking into how Virginians will vote and how they feel about the state of the country, the Commonwealth and the government.

While most Virginia voters said they would vote for former President Donald Trump in the Presidential election, it’s a close race against President Joe Biden. 45.4% said they will vote for Trump, 43.4% said they will vote for Biden, and 11.2% of voters remain undecided. Take a look at the graph, below.

This is data from a new Emerson College Polling/ The Hill survey. It shares the latest polling information on who Virginians will vote for, how they feel about where the country and state is headed, and the most critical issues facing the state.

The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. 1,000 participants voted via online panels, landline, and via mobile phones between July 14-15, 2024.

Of the 11.2% of people who said they were undecided, most said they will vote for Biden if they had to choose. 55% said they would lean towards voting for Biden, compared to 45% who said they would lean towards voting for Trump.

Ultimately, how undecided Virginians choose to vote will make the election tighter. Factoring in the undecided voters, the match up is closer to 50-50, with 50.4% of Virginians supporting Trump and 49.6% supporting Biden.

According to the data, undecided voters can play an important role in this election.

Let’s look at how those with political party affiliations might vote. Of the Virginia voters affiliated with a political party, 46.4% of Independents would vote for Trump, 38.4% for Biden and 15.2% remain undecided.

“In a state Biden won by 10 points in 2020, the president now essentially tied with Trump,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Independent voters break for Trump, 46% to 38%, a group that broke for Biden in 2020 by double digits.”

Independent voters can play a deciding role in the election.

In the 2020 Presidential election, 51.6% of voters said they voted for Biden, 41.7% said they voted for Trump, 2.1% voted for someone else, and 4.6% did not vote.

Of voters in the Commonwealth affiliated with a political party, more are affiliated with the Democratic party. 39.6% are Democrat, 31.8% are Republican, and 28.6% are Independent or other.

What happens when third-party candidates are placed on the ballot? According to the polling data, Trump’s lead increases. Take a look at the graph, below.

According to the data, 42.9% would vote for Trump, 38% for Biden, 7.5% for Robert Kennedy Jr., 1.7% for Cornel West, 1.7% for Jill Stein, and less than 1% for Chase Oliver. In this scenario, 7.8% of voters remain undecided.

Will voters stay loyal to their political party affiliations? A small percentage is voting outside of their party. About 7.4% of Democrats said they would vote for Trump, while 4.8% of Republicans said they would vote for Biden.

What could be playing a role in how Virginians will vote?

Most voters feel the United States is generally on the wrong track. 29.3% of voters feel the country is moving in the right direction, while a larger group, 70.7% feel the country is on the wrong track.

Democrats were evenly split. 50% said the country is on the wrong track and 50% said the country is moving in the right direction.

It is starker with Republicans. 94.3% of Republicans said the country is moving on the wrong track. Only 5.7% believe the country is headed in the right direction. Independents also said the country is on the wrong track, at 73%, and 27%, said the country is generally headed in the right direction.

When split up in age groups, the group that felt strongest the country is on the wrong track was voters aged 30-39, at 79.6%. All age groups overwhelmingly said the country is on the wrong track.

Most voters disapprove with the job Biden is doing as President. 52.9% of people disapprove, 37.4% approve and 9.7% felt neutral or had no opinion.

Democrats found Biden more favorable with 67% approving of the job he is doing. Republicans mostly disapprove, at 91.1%. Independents also disapprove at 57.7%.

With recent conversations over whether Biden should step down, where does Vice President Kamala Harris fit in a hypothetical match-up with Trump?

In the hypothetical election, 44.5% of Virginians said they would vote for the Vice President, 46.7% for Trump and 8.7% are undecided. In this matchup, undecided voters could make a difference in the outcome.

Let’s take a closer look at what is happening inside the state and what Virginians care about.

Most Virginians feel the state is headed in the right direction. 59.4% said it is moving in the right direction and 40.6% said it is on the wrong track.

Similar to the country, Democrats are split close to 50-50, 47.9% said it is on the wrong track and 52.1% said it is headed in the right direction. 66.2% of Republicans think it is moving in the right direction and 33.8% feel it is on the wrong track. Independents are similar to Republicans. 62.1% said it is moving in the right direction, and 37.9% said the state is on the wrong track.

Voters were asked about the job Glenn Youngkin is doing as Governor. Most approve of Youngkin’s job. 46.3% approve, 38.1% disapprove and 15.6% are neutral or have no opinion.

For Democrats and Republicans, the data looks to be split on party lines. Most Democrats disapprove, while Republicans and Independents approve.

Another election is coming up for Virginians. Democratic Senator Tim Kaine’s seat is up for election in 2024.

In the U.S. Senate matchup, if it is between Kaine and Republican Hung Cao, most voters said they would vote for Kaine. 48.6% would vote for Kaine, 38.5% for Kao, 3.7% for someone else, and 9.3% are undecided.

What do Virginia voters see as important issues in 2024?

According to the poll, Virginians are looking at the economy, including jobs, inflation and taxes. 39.9% view the economy as the most important issue.

All political parties felt the economy was the most important issue: Republican 51.7%, Democrat 31.1%, and Independent 38.9%.

Other issues include, housing affordability (11.5%), immigration (9.2%), threats to democracy (8.7%), education (7.1%), abortion access (6.4%), healthcare (6.4%) and crime (5.7%), something else (4.3%), and foreign policy (0.8%).

Virginians were asked about abortion laws. Most would like to see the lawn become less strict. 44.1% said less strict, 35.2% said remain as they are and 20.8% said more strict.

Most Democrats want to see less strict laws at 68.2%, more strict at 4.4%, and remain as they are 27.4%. Most Republicans want to see laws become more strict at 42.7%, remain the same at 39.3%, and less strict at 18.3%. The majority of Independents want to see laws remain as they are at 41.6%, 39.3% want to see less strict laws and 19.1% want laws to become more strict.

The majority of both men and women want to see abortion laws become less strict. And, the majority of people up to 49 years old want to see abortion laws become less strict.

We are less than four months out to the November 2024 election day. Will Virginians turn out to the polls?

Most Virginians said they will vote in the November 2024 Presidential election. 90.2% said they are very likely, 3.9% are somewhat likely, 3.1% are split and 2.8% are not likely to vote at all.

While most Virginia said they will vote, there is a split of how motivated voters are to vote. The poll found 76.2% extremely motivated, 10.9% very motivated, 7.4% somewhat motivated, 3.4% not too motivated, and 2.1% not at all motivated.

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