$500 billion mirage? How The Line went from 106 miles to 1.5 miles of controversy

In the sunbaked desert along Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast, a vision for the future of urban living is taking shape—or at least, it’s supposed to be.

The Line, a cornerstone of the kingdom’s ambitious Neom project, was unveiled in 2021 with promises of being a game changer in city design for the 21st century. But recent developments suggest this mirage of progress may be flickering.

Billed as a marvel of ecological technology and urban planning, The Line captured global attention with its radical concept: a 106-mile-long (170 kilometers) linear city composed of two parallel 500-meter-high mirrored structures.

This “vertical city” aimed to house nine million people in a mere 34 square kilometers, a population density that would shame even the world’s most crowded metropolises.

The brainchild of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, The Line was presented as Saudi Arabia’s bold step into a post-oil future. Its lofty goals included 100 percent renewable energy usage, a car-free environment with high-speed rail for transportation, and the preservation of 95 percent of the land for nature.

Plus, residents would enjoy a maximum 20-minute commute and no more than five minutes from essential amenities.

But nearly three years after its announcement, The Line appears to be stumbling from grand vision to scaled-back reality.

The Line’s vision crumbles

Recent announcements from the Saudi government have significantly scaled back the project’s ambitions.

The original target of housing 1.5 million people by 2030 has been slashed to just 300,000. More strikingly, the iconic 106-mile stretch has been reduced to a mere 1.5 miles (2.4 kilometers) for the initial phase—a far cry from the revolutionary city-scale experiment initially promised.

This drastic downsizing raises questions about the project’s viability and the confidence of its backers.

Investors enticed by the prospect of a groundbreaking urban experiment now look at what amounts to little more than a vertical village. The returns on such a project are likely to be far less enticing than the grand vision originally sold.

But the challenges facing The Line go beyond mere scale. A closer examination of the project’s foundational concepts reveals fundamental flaws that call into question its entire premise.

Mathematical flaws expose The Line

In a paper published on Nature.com , Rafael Prieto-Curiel and Daniel Kondor highlighted the mathematical impossibilities inherent in The Line’s design.

Their analysis showed that even with the original 170-kilometer plan, the project’s population density would result in an average distance of 57 kilometers between any two randomly selected residents. This spatial distribution wreaks havoc on the promise of 20-minute maximum commute times.

To achieve the promised accessibility, The Line would need at least 86 train stations.

However, this would result in such short distances between stops that trains could never reach their optimal speed, ballooning the average commute time to at least 60 minutes. Moreover, the average walking distance to a station would be 1.3 kilometers—hardly the convenient, car-free utopia initially envisioned.

These developments severely undermine The Line’s core attraction. The very linear nature that made it such an iconic concept proves its greatest weakness from an urban planning perspective.

Prieto-Curiel and Kondor suggest that a circular design would resolve many of these issues, reducing the average distance between residents to just 2.9 kilometers. However, such a fundamental change in design at this stage would spell the end of the project as we know it.

Between vision and reality

The Line’s struggles extend beyond the realm of urban planning and into the complex realities of development in Saudi Arabia. Reports have surfaced of the government authorizing “lethal force” to evict people from their homes along the proposed route, casting a shadow over the project’s humanitarian credentials.

As doubts grow, Saudi Arabia has begun courting Chinese investment and expertise to keep the project afloat. This pivot highlights the kingdom’s determination to see the project through, even as its original vision becomes increasingly unattainable.

The Line is not the first grandiose city-building project in history, nor is it likely to be the last. Throughout the ages, rulers have sought to leave their mark by constructing new urban centers from scratch. From ancient Alexandria to Brazil’s modernist capital, Brasília, such projects have often been driven more by will and vision than practical considerations.

The Line’s ambitious integration of cutting-edge technology and ecological design principles sets It apart.

It represents not just a new city but a new way of thinking about urban living in the face of climate change and resource scarcity. Its success or failure could have far-reaching implications for future urban development worldwide.

A race against time and reality

However, as the project faces mounting challenges, it risks joining the ranks of history’s great architectural follies—grand visions that faltered in the face of reality.

The coming years will be crucial in determining whether The Line can overcome its current obstacles and deliver on at least some of its promises or whether it will remain a mirage in the Saudi desert.

Earth movers continue to work around the clock, reshaping the landscape along the Red Sea coast. But as they toil, the question looms larger than ever: Is The Line the harbinger of a bold new urban future or a cautionary tale of ambition outpacing feasibility?

The jury is still out, but the clock is ticking. The gap between The Line’s grand vision and scaled-back reality grows daily.

As Saudi Arabia grapples with these challenges, the fate of The Line may well determine the kingdom’s ability to reimagine its future in a world moving beyond oil.