Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump recently said Taiwan needs to do more for its defense. And he’s right.
In an interview with Bloomberg, the former president was asked if he would defend Taiwan against China . The Chinese Communist Party routinely violates Taiwan’s sovereignty and has threatened to take over the island nation. CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping has called for the Chinese military to “be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027” — a move that could spark a Sino-American war.
Trump told Bloomberg “I know the people of Taiwan very well” and “respect them greatly.” But Taiwan “should pay us for defense” otherwise, “we’re no different from an insurance company.” The GOP nominee’s comments were quickly taken out of context, with some commentators claiming that Trump said he wouldn’t defend Taiwan. Yet Trump, who noted that Taiwan is “the apple of President Xi’s eye,” didn’t say that. And he’s right to think that Taiwan should do more for its defense.
Taiwan’s security challenges are enormous. The Pentagon has labeled China as its sole “pacing challenge,” and Beijing is the only peer competitor to America’s military. China has been engaged in the largest military buildup in modern history, and both its leaders and its military haven’t been shy about expressing their belief that Taiwan is theirs.
Long before Xi’s rise to near-total power, the CCP coveted the island nation. Indeed, numerous crises have erupted in the Taiwan Straits, including in the 1950s, which prompted then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower to threaten to use nuclear weapons. At the time, China was a poor nation, mired in upheaval and domestic chaos. Now, China’s capabilities are orders of magnitude greater. China wants Taiwan and today has the means to achieve this ambition.
China would likely use an amphibious invasion to conquer Taiwan. Amphibious invasions are famously difficult to accomplish. Some analysts have suggested that Beijing lacks the means, although defense analysts such as Tom Shugart have demonstrated otherwise. And Taiwan isn’t ready.
Taiwan spends a mere 2.5% of its GDP on defense. By contrast, other nations that face grave security challenges, such as Poland and Israel , spend far more. Russia menaces Poland, and Iran has vowed to destroy Israel. Yet, China is a far more formidable foe than either Russia or Iran.
For years, Taiwanese military expenditures were often impractical, with Taipei focused on buying costly subs and aircraft, both of which would likely be easily destroyed in a Chinese attack. Defense analysts have argued that Taiwan should invest more in asymmetrical and coastal defense systems, which are less flashy but more practical, given the threat.
To its credit, Taiwan has begun to do so. The nation has belatedly started to increase its defense spending. Yet Taiwan should be spending far more and acting with greater urgency. Taiwanese leaders have also, if unintentionally, encouraged the United States to prioritize aiding Ukraine over boosting American capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. This, too, is a mistake.
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A Sino-American conflict would be the most devastating war in more than half a century, likely leaving many thousands of Americans dead and entailing attacks on the homeland. Americans can’t, and shouldn’t, be expected to fight and die for a nation that won’t protect itself.
Yet it is also a mistake to view support for Taiwan as transactional. American aid to the country benefits the U.S., too. Should Taiwan fall, China’s power would grow — with disastrous implications for the U.S. and its allies. It's in all our interests, then, that Taiwan wake up to Trump's analysis.
The writer is a Washington, D.C.-based foreign affairs analyst. His views are his own.
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