What's the winning formula for Best New Food at the Iowa State Fair? We crunch the numbers

Data can be an incredibly useful tool for sizing up our state’s weather phenomena , sports heroes and political landscape .

It also, potentially, can be used to predict what extraordinary concoctions Iowans are most likely to gorge themselves on at August’s Iowa State Fair — particularly with regards to the annual Best New Food competition .

Let’s say you’re a restaurant owner or food vendor hoping to take home the coveted award next year. What sorts of dishes stand the best chance? What ingredients do Iowans gravitate toward? And should you put it on a stick?

The Best New Food competition has been an Iowa State Fair staple since 2013. That means there are 10 years of winners to examine to see if any trends are evident.

What sorts of foods win the Iowa State Fair Best New Food competition?

There’s no single, ultimate answer to what makes the Best New Food, but there are some general rules of thumb — some obvious, some perhaps less so. And there are exceptions to those rules, too. But the first step is common among many winners and non-winners alike:

• Fry something. Some winners have been more obvious about this than others. Last year’s Best New Food had it right at the front of the name: Deep-Fried Bacon Brisket Mac-n-Cheese Grilled Cheese. Other winners came with items such as fries or fry bread. But some sort of fried element has featured in nearly every Best New Fair Food winner. And it's been a popular technique for all sorts of new fair foods. Vendors at this year's fair will be deep-frying everything from bubble gum to hot Cheetos.

• Keep it savory. Sweeter dishes that could reasonably be described as desserts have a less successful track record in the new fair food contest. Just two have won: Apple Eggrolls in 2018 and Funnel Cake on a Stick in 2014.

That’s not for a lack of options. The semifinalist and finalist lists often feature several sweet items. This year’s list of entrants included a cinnamon crunch apple taco, a deep-fried PB&J, dough-chos, lemonade donut drops and “the Tipsy Peach,” as well as a handful of dishes that combined sweet and savory elements.

But none of those were named among the three finalists for 2024 . Instead, the honors went to heartier, savory dishes including a bacon cheeseburger egg roll, a lobster corn dog and the pork tenderloin-based “Iowa Sm’Oak’ed Roll.”

• Pig out. So, if you’re crafting a savory dish, what type of meat should you use? All sorts have won the title of Best New Fair Food, from seafood to poultry to beef. But pork products — especially bacon — appear most often in the descriptions of past finalists and winners.

While you’re at it, add some cheese and slather on some barbecue sauce, both of which featured in the past two winners. In fact, the more you can put into your dish, the better: An analysis of the text descriptions of each finalist found that the winning dishes tended to highlight slightly more ingredients (just over five) in their descriptions than those that were merely finalists (just over four).

• Forget the stick. From the corn dog to the pork chop to the humble hard-boiled egg , skewering food for easier portability is a longtime Iowa State Fair tradition. But it’s not essential to win Best New Fair Food. Foods on sticks won the competition in only its first two years. (Another winner, 2017’s Pork Almighty, didn’t come on a stick but had a unique design with portability in mind .)

Perhaps the abundance of ingredients in recent winning dishes has made putting them on a stick a logistical challenge. Either way, fairgoers don’t seem to have any problem if their food gets a little messy or unwieldy.

• Don’t worry about the price. This suggestion will be put to the test this year, as each of the three finalists have announced prices that are at least as high as those of any previous finalist dating back to 2016. But there hasn't been any clear trend among past winners regarding cost.

Over the past seven contests, Iowans have voted three times apiece for the most expensive and least expensive finalists. If the perceived food quality is good, Iowans don’t seem to mind paying up for it.

So, which item will win Best New Fair Food in 2024?

That’s up to you to decide — if you plan to attend the fair. Each of the finalists follows at least a few of the guidelines outlined above.

The Iowa State Fair opens on Aug. 8, and fairgoers can vote for their favorite among the finalists on the fair’s official app or website through Aug. 14. The winner will be announced Aug. 16.

Tim Webber is a data visualization specialist for the Register. Reach him at twebber@registermedia.com and on Twitter at @HelloTimWebber .

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: What's the winning formula for Best New Food at the Iowa State Fair? We crunch the numbers