More than ever this upcoming season, the NBA Western Conference is loaded with talent. There are at least 11 teams at this point in time who will be fully expecting to be a playoff team come next April. With the introduction of the Play-In Tournament, there is only room for 10, and then just 8. Who will be the teams that secure their spot, and who will fall just short?
‘23- ‘24 Standings:
1: OKC Thunder
2: Denver Nuggets
3: Minnesota Timberwolves
4: LA Clippers
5: Dallas Mavericks
6: Phoenix Suns
7: LA Lakers
8: New Orleans Pelicans
9: Sacramento Kings
10: Golden State Warriors
11: Houston Rockets
12: Utah Jazz
13: Memphis Grizzlies
14: San Antonio Spurs
15: Portland Trail Blazers
Playoff Locks:
These teams are as close as possible to a guarantee of making the playoffs. The majority of their cores from last season are intact. There is no reason for any of them to slip down the rankings significantly, despite the elevated talent of other teams in the conference.
OKC Thunder
The ‘23- ‘24 Thunder finished as the youngest first seed in NBA History last season, with an average age of 23.4 years. They’ve retained all their key pieces, as well as adding Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein to the team.
SGA and company are in prime position to rule over the Western Conference for the next 5-7 years seeing them finish as anything lower than the fourth seed would be quite a shock. This is without mentioning the fact that they have one of the best coaches in Basketball, Mark Daigenault, steering the ship.
Denver Nuggets
The loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the failure to replace him with a quality starter will be felt strongly in Denver next season. This is still one of the best teams in the league, spearheaded by the best player in the world Nikola Jokic.
Provided guys like Murray and MPJ stay relatively healthy throughout the regular season, there’s no reason this team isn’t still a top-six team in the West at the bare minimum. It’ll be fun to see if either Peyton Watson or Christian Braun can fill that void at Shooting Guard with the departure of KCP to Orlando.
Minnesota Timberwolves
It's no surprise that the top three teams of last season are all likely to make it back next year. Anthony Edwards is only going to get better, Gobert and KAT are still going to be high-quality players and the supporting cast is all still there, minus Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris.
The pickup of Rob Dillingham in the draft may not do much for the Spurs this year, but for him to have Mike Conley as a mentor is awesome. Conley is one of the best guys to learn from as far as controlling an offense and making the right plays, this will go a long way for his progression.
A Few Pieces Away
The next three teams are not awful, but are still probably a year or two away from playoff contention, due to the inexperience and lesser talent on their current rosters. They’ll be good for a few upset wins, but more than likely will be out of reach of the 10 seed at season's end.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are going to be SO fun to watch this year. Chris Paul throwing dimes to Victor Wembanyama in itself is going to be highlight central, but also bringing in Stephon Castle and the progression of guys like Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan will be exciting.
San Antonio could probably have a sneaky 30-win season, as the team’s talent is certainly there. They just lack experience, though that is helped in spades by the arrivals of CP3 and Harrison Barnes. They are still probably a year away from proper play-in contention, but at the very least they will be a super fun team to watch.
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland has had one of the better Off-Seasons of any NBA team so far. They have solid depth at every position but just don’t have the top-end talent required to make the playoffs in this Western Conference.
The Blazers have a couple of decisions to make, as they have three different centers in Ayton, Rob Williams, and rookie Donovan Clingan who should be getting 25+ minutes. It should be no surprise to see another trade out of Portland, dealing with at least one of Ayton or Williams.
Utah Jazz
Since the Finals finished, there have been endless trade rumors surrounding Lauri Markkanen, to the Warriors, Kings, and Magic among other teams. If this does happen, expect the Jazz to be the worst team in the West this season.
Utah has many solid pieces on the roster, but like Portland, lack that top-end talent and team cohesion to have a real fighting chance for the playoffs. If Markkanen is traded, it's expected guys like Jordan Clarkson and John Collins could be moved over the season as well.
The Dogfight
The remaining nine teams all have quality rosters and should believe they will be making the playoffs this upcoming season. Unfortunately for them, only five spots are remaining with the top three locked up. This means FOUR of these teams will not be making the playoffs in 2024/25. Based on all these team's cores, they could all end up as at least the 4 seed, but also could see a world where they finish in the play-in, or even lower.
Dallas Mavericks
Last season’s Western Conference Finalists added one of the greatest shooters of all time, surely, they’re a lock for the playoffs? In an ideal world, yes, they would be, but there’s a world in which the Klay signing comes back to bite them. If he isn’t shooting at least 38% on a high volume from three, he’s likely going to be a net negative player on the court, as his defense is a shred of what it used to be.
The loss of DJJ defensively will be noticed, as well as Josh Green. With any luck, the added firepower offensively will combat that enough to keep Dallas in the playoffs. Naji Marshall and Quentin Grimes will also be solid backup wings, especially on the defensive end.
LA Clippers
Despite the loss of Paul George, Tyron Lue still has a playoff-quality team on his hands. Health will always be the question with this team as long as Kawhi Leonard is on it. James Harden is also turning 35 soon.
This is probably the last year of ‘contention’ with Kawhi for LA, but it could also end up being a waste of a year if he does miss a lot of games. There’s definitely a world where they miss the playoffs altogether. They’ve done well to bring in some solid depth, in Nicolas Batum and Derrick Jones Jr, to replace George, as well as Kevin Porter Jr. A significant drop in the rankings, however, still wouldn’t be a surprise for the Clips.
Phoenix Suns
The ‘Big 3’ is still intact, but as proven last year, it’s not the most perfect fit. Their supporting cast was improved, however, by adding Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee after losing Eric Gordon to Philadelphia. They’ve also re-signed Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, and Josh Okogie to fill out the wing position.
Maybe the biggest signing of all came at the Head Coach position. After firing Frank Vogel, The Suns hired championship-winning coach Mike Budenholzer to steer the ship. Hopefully, for Phoenix fans, the Big 3 can stay healthy and gel properly throughout this season.
LA Lakers
The Lakers have been a play-in team for the last 3 seasons, and considering they’ve made no major changes to their roster other than drafting Dalton Knecht, there’s no reason to think they’d make any advances on that.
LeBron James will be 40 years old in December, in what could be his last season, even though he did sign a two-year deal this offseason. D’Angelo Russell looks like he’ll be back on the team, and the core will remain the same. With many teams that finished below them last season getting better and more experienced, it's reasonable to suggest they will be a play-in team at best. As NBA fans know, it’s never wise to count out LeBron, especially if AD can stay healthy.
New Orleans Pelicans
The addition of Dejounte Murray is going to do wonders for this team on both sides of the ball. The Pelicans may try bringing CJ McCollum off the bench to have the defense of Murray and Herb Jones starting in the backcourt.
With Zion and Brandon Ingram still relatively young, they should both be just as good if not better. The loss of Valanciunas is unfortunate, but getting someone better defensively down low could push the Pelicans into championship contention.
This is all likely irrelevant if Zion isn’t healthy for the majority of the season, they could be another team that falls out of the playoffs altogether.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are another team that made an awesome move in the off-season, bringing DeMar DeRozan back to California. Monte McNair did a great job getting DeRozan, while not having to give up many assets for a guy who’s still all-star quality.
If it works, the Kings could end up a 3-4 seed as they were in 2022-23. If it doesn’t, they could miss the playoffs for the second consecutive year.
They’re still looking for another backup wing, but DeRozan and bringing back Malik Monk on a 4-year deal gives Kings fans hope for a successful season.
Golden State Warriors
The loss of Klay Thompson hurts the hearts of Warriors fans, but they’ve had a solid off-season apart from that so far. Bringing in De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson is super underrated.
Lauri Markkanen is another name very much still on the table for Golden State, unfortunately, the Jazz want every single piece of their young core AND multiple FRPs.
With Curry in his twilight years, Mike Dunleavy needs to make moves sooner rather than later to keep their championship window open.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are one of the youngest teams in the league, with the talent level to beat anyone when they’re on. Houston just has so many exciting young pieces, that they’ve almost got too much, as there aren’t enough minutes for all of them to develop properly. This resulted in seeing Amen Thompson in the G-League for spurts last season after being drafted 4th Overall.
Another year of experience for those young guys in the rotation might be enough to push them into the playoffs, but of course, it will be extremely difficult with the West the way it is right now.
Memphis Grizzlies
Ja Morant is back and healthy, which means the Memphis Grizzlies are yet ANOTHER team in the West vying for a playoff spot. Last time Ja was healthy, the Grizzlies were the 2nd seed, so it’s not at all ridiculous to suggest they’re capable of being a top 5 team. This is especially true because the majority of that core is still intact.
Just like many teams in this category, it’ll come down to health for Memphis, and it’ll be super interesting to see what type of impact Zach Edey has on this team, and whether he’ll start next to JJJ.
The most competitive regular season ever?
There are at least 12 different teams in the West with playoff ambitions, which can only mean that it’s going to be an absolute dogfight throughout the regular season. This is something NBA fans should be thrilled to hear, as it’s going to make for some highly entertaining basketball.
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