McLaren vs Red Bull to resume? Five data clues from Hungarian GP practice

After a hot afternoon of practice in Hungary, the teams are already analysing telemetry data and long runs to prepare race strategies and analyse qualifying paces. Red Bull and McLaren look to be the strongest for the Hungarian GP, although Mercedes and Ferrari could join the battle at any time.

The FP1 and FP2 sessions at the Hungaroring have left us with some interesting data to analyse and several names to watch out for in qualifying and the race on Sunday. Although we don’t know a lot of data such as the fuel load of each car, the engine map selected, etc. the data from Friday at the Hungarian GP gives us a bigger picture of how the weekend might unfold.

Hungarian GP data: Another classic battle between Red Bull and McLaren awaits

It’s already a classic of this season, but Friday’s data gives us another duel between Max Verstappen and Lando Norris. The Red Bull team has brought an update package that has paid off and both Verstappen and Sergio Perez have been very comfortable. The Mexican, in fact, had his best Friday since the Chinese GP.

As a general rule, although it is not confirmed, it is rumoured in the paddock that McLaren tends to run on Fridays with less fuel than Red Bull, hence the Papaya team’s lap times stand out a little more. However, in terms of one-lap pace, Lando Norris set the fastest FP2 time by more than two tenths of a second over Max Verstappen.

This time is a bit misleading because in Sector 1, where the times should be more even, McLaren is +0.246s ahead of Red Bull. Then in Sector 2 and Sector 3, the RB20 is faster than the MCL38 which makes us think that Red Bull has kept time up its sleeve in the first sector ahead of tomorrow’s real fire.

In terms of race pace, Red Bull and especially Sergio Perez surprised with a great pace on the medium tyre. However, McLaren’s reference in FP1 with this same tyre is irrelevant as we had temperatures almost 12°C lower in FP2 so they are not comparable runs.

McLaren chose the hard tyre instead and Lando Norris’ pace was particularly good. Even better than Verstappen’s run with the medium tyre. Again, this could be by the fact mentioned before of McLaren running on a higher fuel load. Oscar Piastri, compared with Norris perhaps with an even higher fuel load to try another different setup, was seven tenths slower than his team-mate.

High temperatures: degradation and tyre wear will be key

The European heatwave is also affecting Budapest this weekend. If last year a record track temperature of 53ºC was reached at the Hungaroring, this time in FP1 we reached over 60ºC. However, in FP2 the temperature dropped and allowed for a more significant running time ahead of Sunday’s race.

In this sense, tyre degradation and tyre management will play a fundamental role. Tyre selection for the race strategy will also be key in order to be able to attack with a fresher tyre in the race. The teams that manage their tyres best in Hungary will have a good chance of moving up the grid on Sunday.

Ahead of FP3, qualifying and the race, Red Bull has been the most conservative team in terms of tyre selection during the first two FP sessions. With just five new sets of softs, they might run in Q1 with a medium tyre or just do one try at the end of the session risking a driver mistake.

More from the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend

👉 Red Bull’s major Hungarian GP upgrades revealed as Max Verstappen hopes for improvement

👉 2024 Hungarian Grand Prix – Free Practice 2 F1 results

Sauber’s upgrades are encouraging, Aston Martin’s are pessimistic

After a two-week break following a triple-header, the teams have arrived in Hungary with several updates. The most notable of these are from Red Bull, Kick Sauber and Aston Martin.

Those of the Hinwil-based team have borne their first fruits with Valtteri Bottas very solid throughout Friday in terms of one-lap pace. On the other hand, Aston Martin’s have lowered the hopes of their fans after Fernando Alonso’s negative comments in FP1 about the AMR24’s balance. And the data numbers do not put them in a very good place either.

If Kick Sauber can confirm the good feeling in qualifying and the race this weekend, Aston Martin could become the sixth or even seventh force on the grid.

Ferrari and Mercedes in the fight… with Leclerc in poor form

Ferrari has arrived in Hungary with an improved version of its car’s floor to avoid porpoising. The Hungaroring track characteristics favour the SF-24’s performance, however for the moment, like Mercedes, the Italians are saving their full potential for Saturday’s qualifying.

On such a short circuit and where pole position has historically been decided by thousandths of a second, both Mercedes and Ferrari should be close to the lap times of Red Bull and McLaren, although today’s data puts them behind teams such as Kick Sauber and Racing Bulls which is not the reality in terms of real pace.

There is some concern about Charles Leclerc’s form. The Monégasque driver has only scored points in one of the last four races and today he suffered an accident at the exit of Turn 4 which led to a red flag in FP2. His car was damaged and he only has the FP3 session left to adjust the set-up before qualifying and complete his long runs. A situation that doesn’t help Ferrari to make that last jump they need to be at the top again.

A small risk of rain could alter everything

For qualifying on Saturday, a cloudy day is expected, lower temperatures than in FP… and a slight chance of rain of 10% increasing to 40% one hour after the end of qualifying. As was the case at Silverstone, this could alter the grid order and make the pack even more compact.

For Sunday, slightly warmer temperatures, less cloud and a slight risk of rain of 9% are expected. The possibility of summer rain, however slight, at the Hungaroring cannot be ruled out.

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