Despite this, Trump's candidacy has attracted the support of a man whose wealth depends almost entirely on electric cars — Elon Musk .
A Trump charm offensive
The billionaire officially endorsed Trump following his attempted assassination this month, and reportedly plans to donate $45 million a month to pro-Trump super PAC as he throws his enormous wealth behind Trump's re-election bid.
The potential loss of the $7,500 tax credit has already sparked concern in the EV industry.
General Motors board member and former Tesla president of global sales Jon McNeill warned that rolling back on this tax credit would hand Chinese manufacturers like BYD, who benefit from significant state support , a huge advantage over their US rivals.
"I think we risk losing the auto manufacturing share to China. We really do, globally," he told CNBC .
"If we see that tax credit cut, then EVs start looking insurmountably expensive for most consumers," he said.
Sam Fiorani, vice president of Global Vehicle Forecasting at automotive consultancy AutoForecast Solutions, told BI that the tax credit had become increasingly targeted at middle-class vehicle buyers in recent years.
"Pulling it away will lessen the opportunity for middle-class people to entertain the idea of an electric vehicle, and potentially make the industry less competitive by raising prices," he said.
Ultimately, the political uncertainty surrounding the election is probably already a factor causing automakers to reconsider their EV plans, Khoo said.
"It could be potentially fatal to the industry," said Khoo.
Elon Musk's gamble
This grim picture leaves Musk's full-throated support for Trump looking somewhat contradictory.
The billionaire has been on a Trump charm offensive for months, telling shareholders Trump would often "call him out of the blue," and that he was trying to convince the former president of the benefits of EVs.
That strategy appears to be working. In a recent interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump said he had "no objection" to EVs and praised Musk as "fantastic" — but he still warned that the US could not have 100% of its cars electric, and criticized them for being too heavy and expensive.
Some experts think there is method in Musk's apparent madness.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, wrote in a recent note that while a Trump presidency would be broadly negative for EVs, it may prove a positive for Tesla.
"Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment," said Ives, adding the company would also benefit from the fact Trump is likely to impose higher tariffs on China's EV giants .
Khoo agreed, telling BI that Tesla has the market share and the production scale to survive a withdrawal of government subsidies, while its rivals do not.
"If you can already do something without the support, and it's going to help the competitors to catch up to you, you can secure your position in the market and maintain that," he said.
"A lot of these incentives are helping other companies transition towards electric vehicles, and Tesla's already there with 15 years of history behind them," said Fiorani.
"They're already making money building electric vehicles, and the incentive just helps boost volume rather than boosting profits," he added.
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