These signs point to a potentially bad late summer for travel disruptions

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio ( WKBN ) – The 2024 tropical storm season is off to a strong start after Hurricane Beryl became the earliest category 5 hurricane on record.

The tropics have been quiet lately due to an influx of Saharan dust , but that is not expected to last. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting an extremely active hurricane season with 17-25 named storms (14 is average), 8-13 hurricanes (7 is average), and 4-7 major hurricanes (3 is average).

Hurricane season peaks in the late summer and early fall, which is the worst time of year because so many Americans are vacationing along the coast. If you have a trip planned in the next couple of months, planning ahead now could help. Dr. Alex DesRosiers from Colorado State University offers some advice.

“A first good step is tuning into things like this. Understanding what kind of potential there is in the hurricane season and knowing times of the year like late August and early September where we are more likely to have big storms.”

While it is impossible to know the exact date a hurricane will hit two months from now, meteorologists can lean on what has happened in the past to predict the future. Generally, the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is the second week in September.

The best way to stay informed on the tropics is to tune into the National Hurricane Center.

“If you have a trip planned at this time, just pay attention to what is going on in the tropics. If you are in the path, then do not panic but pay attention to the National Hurricane Center and local emergency managers,” DesRosiers said

Another option to guard against financial loss on your canceled vacation is to buy travel insurance. Travel insurance can cover a multitude of issues including illness, inclement weather, and baggage loss.

Travel insurance typically costs between 4%-8% of the entire total of the trip, according to the United States Travel Insurance Association (USTIA). The cost varies based on the length of the trip, destination, and the age of the policyholder.

Obviously, hurricanes fall under the “inclement weather” category but there is a catch. Insurance companies are not likely to cover claims for a policy purchased after a storm has been named. Typically, the policy needs to be purchased more than 24 hours in advance of a named storm for any claim to be covered. This can be difficult when a storm is named deep in the Atlantic Ocean like Hurricane Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl was first given its name on June 28 but did not make landfall in the United States until July 8. Furthermore, it was not known that Beryl would strike the U.S. coastline until a few days beforehand. Storms like Beryl can make it hard to know when exactly you should purchase travel insurance.

Why is this hurricane season expected to be above normal?

A major controller of hurricane season is the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). The ENSO can be neutral or there can be El Niño or La Niña conditions, which are familiar terms. This year, the ENSO is expected to transition to a La Niña during the peak of hurricane season which can enhance hurricanes, according to DesRosiers.

“We are expecting a shift towards La Niña conditions as we reach the peak of hurricane season. La Niña tends to enhance Atlantic hurricane activity through reduced vertical wind shear,” DesRosiers said.

La Niña conditions result in weaker vertical wind shear (the change in speed and direction of wind with height) which would normally help to weaken tropical systems. If the wind shear is weak, then hurricanes can continue to grow unimpeded in warm waters.

Speaking of warm waters, that is another reason why the hurricane season is expected to be active.

“A really big driver in this year’s hurricane forecast is the ocean state. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are well above average. The warmth is at record levels in a lot of regions, which is beneficial to hurricanes that use warm temperatures as fuel to form and intensify” DesRosiers explained

However, just because the forecast is for an active hurricane season does not mean that you should cancel your trip already.

“It’s important to remember that not everyone will be impacted, and the place you have chosen for vacation may be just fine. I don’t think an active season is a reason alone to change your travel plans, but you can take basic preventative measures” DesRosier said.

The most important thing for now is to stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center and stay informed about the development of any storms that might impact your area.

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