MILWAUKEE — Republican unity juxtaposed with Democratic chaos was the theme of the 2024 Republican National Convention as former President Donald Trump soaked up praise before accepting the nomination Thursday night.
But Republicans are wary of getting too confident this early in the race, of keeping any assumptions that they are assured of victory from seeping into the campaign or into Trump's base of supporters.
“This is going to be the biggest landslide election since 1984,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) told New York delegates on Thursday. But he later added, "We can't take anything for granted. The Democrats are not going to just roll over. They are going to fight for the next four months. And so we have to do everything we can to turn out the vote in New York. We can't take our eye off the ball."
Trump alluded to the issue himself midway through his 90-minute acceptance speech, reminding the audience that the fight is not over.
"There is love in the room. There is great love in the room," he told them. "So I better finish strong. Otherwise, we'll blow it, and we can't let that happen."
The GOP has only to look at Trump's first run for president for inspiration. Democrats spent most of that cycle feeling that their candidate, former Secretary of State and first lady Hillary Clinton, was well ahead of Trump, right up until election night when they learned she had lost within hours of the polls closing.
Trump is up on President Joe Biden by 3 points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average , 47.7% to 44.7%, and holds a polling edge in all seven swing states. But at this point in the 2016 cycle, Clinton held a nearly identical national advantage, up 2.7 points over Trump. A postmortem later ruled that she had neglected key states like Michigan until it was too late.
Dennis Lennox, a Republican strategist who attended the GOP's Milwaukee convention, acknowledged that complacency is the enemy.
“You always, always want to run like you’re losing," Lennox told the Washington Examiner. "All of this talk of a landslide and a remaking of the map is not helpful. Not only does it make staff complacent, but it may suppress voters who think Trump has it in the bag. That’s especially an issue with low-propensity voters."
The Democratic turmoil this time is not like Republican handwringing over Trump in 2016. Back then, Trump was ascendant but seen by some as an unelectable diversion from party orthodoxy who was not fit for the presidency.
Eight years later, Democrats are in turmoil because their candidate, the 81-year-old Biden, seems to be rapidly fading in mental acuity, holed up for the moment with a COVID-19 diagnosis as more and more elected members of his party are calling for him to drop out.
Republicans are now fully behind Trump, with even his vice presidential nominee, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), being a former foe who came around to back him.
Watching the Republican National Convention, CNN's Van Jones compared the raucous atmosphere to that of Barack Obama's triumphant 2008 campaign. "There's something happening," he said on air.
Many Democrats are frustrated with the situation and envious of the Republican "unity" message.
“The only reason why Democrats lose is because of Democrats,” Florida-based Democratic strategist Sasha Tirador said. “The only ones to blame for the disaster that’s going on right now are Democrats. Trump can do absolutely no wrong. It does not matter how many criminal indictments he has, how many felonies he’s found guilty of, there’s not a single elected Republican official who will criticize Trump in the middle of a campaign.”
In contrast, she sees members of her party knifing their candidate over his verbal gaffes, making it impossible to rally behind him.
In theory, if Biden is cast aside, the party could move beyond its turmoil and unite with renewed energy behind a new candidate. Vice President Kamala Harris provides a number of advantages Democrats might use if she were the nominee. She is nearly 20 years younger than Trump, would become the first female president, and has been a strong campaigner on the crucial topic of abortion.
Brad Bannon, another Democratic strategist, says things could quickly change for the better for his side if the momentum to move beyond Biden continues.
"The party has a chance to reboot with a new ticket, with Kamala Harris at the top and a young Democratic governor like Andy Beshear [D-KY] as her running mate," he said. "I think that would break the cloud that is hanging over the party right now. It would infuse the party with a lot of energy. Things could look much different a week from now."
Still, if Harris were viewed as a strong potential candidate, it's possible she would have already been moved to the top of the ticket, and Team Biden and the Democratic National Committee still hold that Biden will not only remain in the campaign but will be formally nominated by a virtual roll call two weeks before the Democratic National Convention.
There is also no guarantee that other prominent Democrats would sit out and not challenge Harris for the job even if Biden steps down. That means a replacement would not be solidified until the end of the DNC on Aug. 22.
Republicans have begun shifting their own messaging away from Biden — Trump mentioned him only once during his lengthy speech — toward saying that it is Democratic policies that are the problem and therefore no Democrat will be better than Biden.
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GOP strategist Doug Heye is not worried about a feeling that the election is a done deal seeping into his party's ranks, predicting that Republicans will finish strong over the last weeks before Election Day.
"Given the high level of enthusiasm Republicans have for their nominee, compared to the already low enthusiasm Democrats feel, which seems to fall each day, this shouldn’t be a concern," he said. "Besides, the leadership at the Trump campaign, [National Republican Congressional Committee], and [National Republican Senatorial Committee], are not the type to take their foot off the pedal."
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