Tensions rise in Guyana as Maduro uses border dispute to build support ahead of Venezuela poll

Andre Mohabir will not leave his village. He is a toshao , the Indigenous leader of Wakapau village in Essequibo, a region along Guyana’s border with Venezuela. Since Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s president, announced in April that he would annex Essequibo, a huge slice of Guyana’s territory , Mohabir has seen the number of villagers dwindle.

“A lot of people have been tense and scared. People moved out in most areas nearby,” says Mohabir, 36.

“I understand because the situation is scary. We depend upon the government to peacefully resolve matters so we can live safely.”

But while some left, most have stayed. They maintain their businesses, study and live in this village of fewer than 2,000 inhabitants, mostly Indigenous Arawak, who have managed to preserve their culture and language through the centuries – despite waves of Spanish, Dutch and British colonisation and fights over land.

“We are Guyanese, and our community supports Guyana,” Mohabir says.

On 28 July, Mohabir and his 800,000 fellow Guyanese will be looking across the border as 21 million Venezuelans go to the polls to choose their new president – as Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s political heir, tries to remain in power for a third six-year term.

His main competitor is Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old diplomat and leader of the opposition coalition, Plataforma Unitaria (Unitary Platform), who has led all the independent polls, with at least a 20-point lead over Maduro . Even so, experts say the incumbent’s chances of victory should not be underestimated.

Years of political unrest and repression amid a chronic economic crisis exacerbated by international sanctions have driven about 8 million Venezuelans to leave the country in the last 12 years, in the largest exodus the region has ever seen.

And this election will have even more ramifications internationally than in the past. In recent months, Maduro’s United Socialist party has blocked opposition leaders such as María Corina Machado, a 56-year-old former MP, and the philosopher Corina Yoris, 80, who were leading in the polls.

Doubts remain about whether the vote will be free and whether Maduro will accept defeat. His bellicose rhetoric over Essequibo was seen by analysts as an attempt to drum up support ahead of the vote.

At least 22,000 Venezuelans now live in Guyana – some working in the burgeoning oil and gas industry.

Oil is the main source of regional tension. Since ExxonMobil discovered large reserves off Guyana in 2015, it has become one of the world’s fastest-developing economies . The recent auction of oil-exploration licences in the waters off Essequibo has intensified the oil boom.

Venezuela has claimed Essequibo ever since it gained independence from Spain in 1811. Encompassing 61,600 sq miles (159,500 sq km) – two-thirds of Guyana – and inhabited by 120,000 of its 800,000 people, the region is largely jungle but has big reserves of oil, gold and copper.

Related: Guyana banks on future as a ‘new Qatar’ in high-stakes gamble over oil production

In 2018, Guyana asked the international court of justice (ICJ) to rule on the dispute, but a decision remains far off and Venezuela contests the court’s authority. In December, Maduro staged a controversial referendum in which 95.9% Venezuelans purportedly supported the territorial claim.

Electoral authorities reported a turnout of 10.5 million out of 20.7 million eligible voters. Opposition leaders disputed the figure, suggesting it was nearer 2 million.

Guyana condemned the referendum and President Irfaan Ali accused Maduro of inflaming tensions. The ICJ warned Venezuela against any action that might aggravate the Essequibo dispute.

After the referendum, Maduro met Guyana’s president in St Vincent and the Grenadines. Mediation efforts by the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States , the Caribbean Community and Brazil have not been successful.

In an 11-point agreement , the two countries agreed to avoid military aggression and border conflicts. However, Venezuela passed a law on 3 April annexing the territory as a new state, a decision promptly rejected by Guyana.

Related: Venezuela referendum result: voters back bid to claim sovereignty over large swath of Guyana

Negotiators from both countries declined interviews.

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Since the referendum, the risk of a military conflict in South America has risen. In May, the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), a US thinktank, warned that the Venezuelan army had “ moved substantial quantities of personnel and equipment to sites near the disputed border”.

“Maduro does want to get a better position for Venezuela in these negotiations over the Essequibo,” says Ryan Berg, author of the CSIS study. “Even though it’s probably too late to use the issue to postpone the election, he could always use this as a post-election diversion or distraction tactic.”

After Maduro announced the annexation, the US army carried out joint training with the Guyanese army in a clear sign of the Biden administration’s intentions to deter Venezuela.

In Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva also warned Maduro not to carry out a military offensive. “Our integration with Guyana is part of Brazil’s strategy to help, not just with development, but to work intensively to keep South America a zone of peace,” Lula said in February, as he ordered the army to reinforce its presence near the border. “We don’t need war.”

In Guyana, many fear political and military tensions could increase if Maduro wins.

Robert Persaud, Guyana’s foreign secretary, says: “Venezuela has been steadily building up its military forces and capacities along the border with Guyana, including the attempted construction of a bridge by the Venezuelan army connecting the Venezuelan mainland to Ankoko Island, through which the international boundary between Venezuela and Guyana passes,” he says.

“Guyana is not prepared to give up an inch of its territory and will do everything in its power and in accordance with international law to protect it,” Persaud says.

In Guyana’s capital, Georgetown, Maduro’s referendum sparked nationalist protests in defence of Essequibo, with people demonstrating in support of the country’s unity. Flags and stickers with the message “Essequibo belongs to Guyana” are widely seen in houses, hotels, restaurants, shops and cars.

Jean La Rose, an Arawak environmentalist from Essequibo and Goldman prize winner for her fight for the rights of Indigenous peoples – known locally as Amerindians – warns that the dispute threatens the original peoples, such as the Arikuna, Akawaio, Pimong, Makushi, Wapi and Shana, who live in the forest without regard for national borders.

“This issue should never have existed,” says La Rose. “In Venezuela, Brazil, Guyana or Suriname, our Indigenous peoples have always moved across borders, sharing common languages and cultures.”

In Caracas, critics of the Venezuelan regime argue that Maduro used the referendum to mobilise his supporters with nationalist rhetoric to divert attention from international pressure for free elections.

But there is an economic element too: like many Latin American and Caribbean countries, Venezuela remains firmly focused on hydrocarbons.

According to Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Programme at Rice University’s Baker Institute , the only hope of recovering Venezuela’s devastated economy is through hydrocarbons since “ world demand for oil continues to rise and the economies of these countries depend on it.”

Venezuela could pump 6m barrels of oil a day, but only produces 800,000. Monaldi attributes the shortfall to the government’s “destruction and unbelievable mismanagement” of PDVSA, Venezuela’s national oil company.

Ricardo De Toma, a researcher at Brazil’s Casa Rui Barbosa , believes the escalation highlights the Maduro government’s incompetence.

Related: ‘Will you stop exploring yours?’: Latin America forges ahead on new oil frontier

In 2007, De Toma says, Guyana successfully resolved its territorial dispute with Suriname, presenting itself as a vulnerable state without military strength and resorting to international law to deal with the issue at a regional level.

Venezuela will not have many options if Maduro retains power and rejects the ICJ’s ruling.

“The US, the UK, France and China have the nuclear option if they do not accept a decision [of the ICJ],” De Toma says. “Venezuela doesn’t have that kind of power.”