Virginia’s biggest out-migration problems are in metro areas, not rural communities

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Gov. Glenn Youngkin has announced an initiative to “accelerate” economic growth in Southwest Virginia. Some of the economic challenges the region faces, though, are rooted in demographics. How easy will they be to solve? After all, every locality west of Montgomery County is losing population. So, too, are most localities across the state’s southern border. They could surely use some economic acceleration, and some demographic acceleration, too.

We’ve looked at the latest population estimates from the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia before, but today let’s dig into them in a different way.

1. Population declines are slowing in much of rural Virginia, but are now showing up in some metro areas.

While my entry point for this column was Southwest Virginia, the localities with the three biggest population declines are in the urban crescent, and their population drops account for twice as many people as the next six localities combined.

Most localities in Southwest and Southside Virginia are losing population but, from a statewide perspective, population declines are more of an urban and suburban problem than a rural one. The percentage declines remain bigger in rural Virginia, but in terms of actual numbers, Fairfax County, Virginia Beach and Newport News are seeing the biggest drops. If you’re surprised to see Fairfax County on that list, check out one of my previous columns about why that’s happening. Short version: More people are moving out than moving in, a combination of an aging population retiring and moving away to Sunbelt locations, rising housing costs that make it difficult for new people move in, and, depending on who you talk to, either high taxes (Republicans) or lack of state investment in transportation (Democrats). (Those last two may not be mutually exclusive, either, which is what makes governance so challenging.)

Here are the localities that have seen the biggest population declines from 2020 to 2023:

Fairfax County -10,911
Virginia Beach -5,865
Newport News -3,979
Henry County -2,380
Portsmouth -1,830
Tazewell County -1,347
Pittsylvania County -1,330
Buchanan County -1,164
Wise County -1,111
Halifax County -966

If you’re a fan of lists, you’re in luck today, because we’re going to have a lot of lists. You just saw one. Now, for another: Here’s the list of the 10 localities that lost the most people in the last census in 2020. That headcount covered a 10-year period, while these estimates cover three, so don’t get hung up on the numbers. Pay attention, instead, to the order.

Wise County -5,322
Norfolk -4,798
Tazewell County -4,649
Buchanan County -3,743
Lee County -3,414
Henry County -3,203
Russell County -3,116
Pittsylvania County -3,005
Mecklenburg County -2,408
Smyth County -2,408

In the 2020 census, almost every locality that lost population was in Southwest and Southside. The population losers outside those areas were still in rural areas with just two exceptions: Norfolk and Hampton.

So far in the 2020s, though, we’re seeing a population shift. Half the localities in the 2020 Top 10 for population loss no longer rank that high (or low, depending on how you’re counting). Those that remain have also seen their placement improve. Wise County, which during the 2010s lost more people than any other locality in the state, now ranks just ninth. Tazewell County, which ranked third, has now slid down to sixth. They are still losing population but their population declines have slowed significantly.

Five localities have dropped out of the Top 10 entirely. Three of those — Lee County, Russell County and Smyth County — have seen their population declines slow, while two have seen remarkable demographic turnarounds.

Norfolk, which lost more people during the 2010s than any other place except Wise County, is now gaining population. (I’ll explain why shortly.)

Mecklenburg County, which lost 2,408 people during the 2010s, has lost just 87 between 2020 and 2023.

Leaders in those two communities ought to be celebrating these figures.

The numbers above answer the question I posed, but don’t fully explain why these population declines are happening. Different communities are losing people for different reasons — and could arrest their population declines in different ways.

Some places need new people to move in. Others simply need fewer people to move out.

Of our 10 biggest population losers, the only reason Fairfax County, Virginia Beach, Newport News and Portsmouth are losing population is because more people are moving out than moving in. Each sees more births than deaths — just not enough to make up for all those moving vans.

The other places — all rural ones — face a different demographic problem. They’re seeing more deaths than births — and more people moving out than moving in. There’s not much they can do about the number of deaths; these are aging communities. And because they’re aging communities, there’s not much they can do about the number of births, either. Even if those communities could stop people from moving out and bring their net out-migration to zero, they’d still lose population. That means they need to do two things: They need to both reverse out-migration and attract brand-new residents. That sounds hard and may well be. However, here’s some more useful context:

The biggest out-migrations are from metro areas, not rural areas.

Out-migration in Virginia today is primarily an urban and suburban phenomenon, not a rural one. Just look at the localities with the 10 biggest out-migrations from 2020 to 2023. They’re all in the urban crescent:

Fairfax County -33,553
Virginia Beach -10,625
Newport News -6,026
Alexandria -5,756
Norfolk -2,670
Portsmouth -2,114
Manassas -1,365
Prince William County -1,027
Hampton -937
Arlington County -910

Not until we go to 11 ^th place do we pick up a rural locality — Henry County, with a net out-migration of -899 over three years.

Most population declines are driven by deaths, not out-migration

This map is admittedly complicated, but it shows all the different ways Virginia localities have gained or lost population. Let’s look more closely at the ones in red — the “double losers” who are losing population both because deaths outnumber births and because more people are moving out than moving in. For those, let’s look at which of those drivers account for what percentage of the locality’s population decline. Here’s what we find (the ones in bold are localities where deaths over births accounts for a bigger share of the decline than out-migration):

Here’s what these numbers show. In most of our “double losers” — 16 of 22 — the main driver of population decline is deaths over births, not out-migration. In fact, in some of them, the percentage of population decline that can be attributed to out-migration is relatively small. In Buena Vista, for instance, 95% of the population decline is because of deaths outnumbering births, only 5% due to out-migration. In Tazewell County, 88.5% of the population decline is because of deaths outnumbering births, only 11.5% due to out-migration. In Covington, 87.6% is due to deaths over numbers; in Pittsylvania County, 83.5%. In Wise County, three-fourths of the population decline is because of deaths outnumbering births.

What that tells me is that in those localities, out-migration is a problem but not necessarily a big problem. They might need in-migration — particularly from young couples who might have babies — but the moving van is not costing them as much as the hearse is.

In only six localities is out-migration the main driver. Two of those we may want to set aside — Lexington and Radford — because those are college communities and it’s possible those numbers are skewed by college students who, by definition, move away.

That leaves just four localities — Brunswick County, Charles City County, Emporia and Greensville County — where out-migration is driving their population declines. All except Charles City County border each other, so we have a cluster of places in eastern Southside where out-migration is a demonstrable problem. I don’t have a solution to offer them, but identifying the problem is the first step toward solving anything. Still, from a statewide perspective, the out-migration from that part of Southside isn’t nearly as worrisome as the out-migration from, say, Fairfax County.

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