President Joe Biden's announcement Sunday that he's dropping out and backing Vice President Kamala Harris shakes up the 2024 presidential election in many ways. Perhaps most significantly: Biden's decision could bring millions more voters to the polls, according to a new analysis of the U.S. electorate.
Resonate , a consumer data and intelligence company, released exclusively to USA TODAY a new set of 10 distinct voter groups. From its database of 250 million Americans, the 10 groups emerged as company's AI data engine culled and matched thousands of U.S. voter attributes.
Ericka McCoy, chief marketing officer for Resonate, predicted Friday that a new Democratic nominee would likely reenergize Gen-Z Zealots, based on insights from these groups. They're the largest of the 10 groups, which include younger, independent voters who advocate for environmental regulations and LGBTQ+ rights.
"The independent groups – they are highly persuadable," McCoy said. "You’ve got a lot of Gen Z first-time voting. There's potential to have some other interesting candidate that really resonates with them."
Who are the 10 voter groups for the 2024 general election?
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The 10 groups can be broadly defined as left-, right- or independent-leaning. The characteristics of the segments, though, are more sharply delineated by comparing insights from Resonate's data on voters' demographics, viewing habits, psychographics, and other values and behaviors.
“The reality is that people are not just Republicans or Democrats or Independents," said McCoy. “By putting people into these big lumps, you miss all the key things that either unite people … or the things that separate you.”
Resonate says its methods have unofficially predicted the last two elections, down to key states such as Michigan and Florida. McCoy said Friday based on their analysis, "If nothing were to change, what we would see is lower turnout – especially among people who have traditionally and consistently voted in presidential elections."
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Here's how Resonate defines each of the 10 voter groups. Included are some of the more traditional demographic data, such as income which refers to household income. Click on a group name to scroll to that group:
Democratic leaning (25%): Cynical Centrists | Safety-net Seniors | Progressive Professionals
Independent leaning (50%) : Money-minded Undecideds | Gen-Z Zealots | Cyber Crusaders | Non-voting Neutrals
Republican leaning (25%) : National Debt Hawks | Immigration Conservative Enforcers | Family-first Millennials
Cynical Centrists
Cynical Centrists: Socially conservative, fiscally moderate left-leaning millennials in urban areas. They prioritize faith, family and blue-collar jobs. They are concerned about tax increases, hold strong views on pro-life policies and parental control in education. They have some interest in health care and workers' rights.
Safety-net Seniors: Left-leaning retirees who prioritize climate change and veterans' support. They prefer traditional media, supporting policies like Social Security cuts and new gun regulations. They strongly endorse Medicare and Social Security and have an 88% approval of the Biden administration.
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Progressive professionals: Left-leaning individuals focused on mental health care, climate change and poverty. They are married with high incomes and white-collar jobs. They are active on LinkedIn, Reddit and NextDoor, and support policies like increased taxes on capital gains and universal background checks for guns. They have an 81% approval of the Biden administration.
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Money-minded Undecideds: Retired Boomer homemakers with incomes under $25,000. They prioritize ethical shopping and bargain hunting. They support policies on entitlements, health care, and strict gun control while advocating for affordable prescription drugs and increased corporate regulation.
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Gen-Z Zealots: Gen Z students heavily engaged with smartphones and social media. They support pro-choice and LGBTQ+ brands, and advocate for environmental regulations. They back policies including abortion rights, student-loan cancellation, higher minimum wage, new gun regulations and equality issues.
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Cyber Crusaders: Affluent, educated millennials, who are often business owners with incomes over $150,000. They prioritize religious services, travel and social media engagement. They support views such as abolishing the death penalty, student-loan forgiveness, and zoning laws for multi-family homes.
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Non-voting neutrals: Politically disengaged Gen Xers, who are unregistered to vote. They lack strong political opinions while facing rising costs with minimal media and social platform engagement. They attribute inflation to reliance on government benefits rather than work.
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National Debt Hawks: Right-leaning Gen X professionals in white-collar roles with incomes over $150,000. They engage with LinkedIn and traditional media. They are concerned about partisan politics and national debt. They support U.S. military aid to Israel and Ukraine while opposing Trump's 2024 candidacy.
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Immigration Conservative Enforcers: Retired Boomer conservative Protestants with incomes of $25,000-$50,00. They support pro-Israel brands and prioritize cancer research and veteran care. They are active voters who advocate for immigration and defense policies, stricter borders, fossil fuel production and abortion bans.
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Family-first Millennials: Diverse Republican millennial single parents who are passionate about mental health care and supporting underprivileged youth. They engage heavily with social media and support policies including education, job creation, tax cuts, health care reform, and family support.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: As Biden leaves 2024 election, Trump and Democrats need to court these 10 voter groups
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