The pros and cons of Kamala Harris: a progressive reformer forced to run on Biden’s record

After Joe Biden’s momentous decision on Sunday to step aside in the US presidential race, Democrats fell in line to describe him as a selfless American hero – and many of them echoed his endorsement of his vice-president, Kamala Harris.

One measure of the hope the decision to drop out and endorse Harris brought with it: stagnant donations immediately rocketed , and by Monday afternoon, Harris is likely to have raised more money in a 24-hour period than any other candidate in US history.

Biden’s endorsement plus the explicit support of many prominent figures in the party mean there is a very good chance she will run unopposed, or be a strong favourite even if someone stands against her. One potential candidate, Gretchen Whitmer, the governor of Michigan, quickly said on Sunday that she would not stand; another governor, Gavin Newsom of California, has repeatedly said he would not stand against Harris . Both have endorsed her, along with more than 100 other elected Democrats.

In her favour is wariness among the Democratic establishment of a chaotic display to the public in an open battle at the convention – alongside worries that Black and female voters could turn away from the party if Harris were to be denied the nomination that some feel she has already earned. But how might she fare politically in a matchup against Donald Trump?

Harris’s strengths

Harris does a bit better than Biden in match-up polls against Trump: they were tied with 44% each in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll , giving her a two-point advantage over Biden in the same poll. She also has slightly higher approval ratings than Biden.

While those figures do not make an overwhelming case for her nomination, her supporters argue that they could quickly improve as she is introduced to the public with a unified and excited Democratic party behind her. And they point to her recent record on attacking Trump as well as being a prominent voice for Biden on abortion as evidence for the theory that she could be a nimble and energetic campaigner against the Republican candidate.

Harris is viewed as a moderate who succeeded in California with a “tough on crime” message before recasting herself as a progressive reformer. The contrast between a 59-year-old former prosecutor, who would be the first woman and the first woman of colour to be elected president, and a 78-year-old convicted criminal is another source of optimism, underlined by this ad from her 2020 campaign that was widely shared on Sunday. And Harris’s supporters hope that she could shore up Democratic support among the significant number of younger voters and people of colour who polls show have been drawn to Trump.

Another point in her favour is a highly practical one: it will be much simpler for her to access Biden’s hefty $240m war chest – and the significant funds now pouring in from donors who had suspended their contributions – than for any candidate who was not part of his campaign. Vox has a useful explainer of the significant hurdles facing any other candidate.

Harris’s weaknesses

While she looks like a stronger candidate than Biden, that’s a pretty low bar. Democrats who oppose her coronation as the nominee ask an obvious question: if we’re prepared to go through the pain of forcing Biden out, surely we shouldn’t then nominate his vice-president by default?

That argument is bolstered by the evidence of Harris’s previous run at the presidency, which sputtered out after her support fell into the low single digits and saw her described by the New York Times as “an uneven campaigner who changes her message and tactics to little effect”.

This Washington Post piece from Saturday reports that many of her supporters say she has become a far more effective political communicator and strategist since then. But she struggled to carve out an effective role in the vice-presidency, too, being saddled with a difficult policy portfolio including immigration and the failed voting rights bill, where Biden eventually cut her out of negotiations with lawmakers .

Perhaps the most fundamental problem for Harris: in what could be a “change” election, she will have to run on Biden’s record. So far, the Republican playbook appears to be to link her to it indelibly , and to claim that she failed to warn the public about Biden’s allegedly declining faculties.

It remains to be seen if those attacks will work – and Harris’s nomination is not yet certain. But whatever comes next, Democrats are significantly more optimistic today. One of the dominant reactions to emerge after Trump’s rambling convention speech last week was: this guy is confident, but he is also very beatable . As Moira Donegan wrote in an opinion piece on Sunday: “In withdrawing from the presidential race, Biden has given the country a fighting chance to defeat Trump.”