Trump sees win over Harris with help from black and Hispanic voters

Former President Donald Trump’s advisers are as boldly predicting a fall election win over Vice President Kamala Harris as they did over President Joe Biden , citing support from Hispanic and black voters, both historically Democratic support groups.

Polling from the Trump team shows that the campaign has been testing a Trump-Harris matchup for months and they said the former president has consistently done a little better against the vice president.

Importantly, they said, Harris is not more popular among black and Hispanic voters than Biden, suggesting that her minority status does not help her much among the top minority voting blocs.

And, they told Secrets, she is not driving independent or younger voters to the Democratic ticket either.

Consider the most recent polling on the race from brothers John and Jim McLaughlin, whose McLaughlin & Associates advises the team led by pollster Tony Fabrizio.

In the monthly survey released at the end of June, Trump held a 46%-44% lead over Biden. In a head-to-head with Harris, Trump was up 47%-42%.

McLaughlin broke out results for black, Hispanic, and younger voters and it showed that Harris brought nothing extra to the race.

Among Hispanic voters, Biden had the support of 45% to 42% for Trump. Harris had the support of 43%. In 2020, Biden won 59% of the Hispanic vote.

With black voters, Biden had 64% to Trump’s 28%. Harris, whose mother is Indian and father Jamaican, has the support of 60% of black voters. According to the Pew Research Center, Democratic presidential candidates average 91% of the black vote.

Voters under 55 split 45% for Biden and 44% for Trump. Harris wins fewer in this category, at 42%.

And with independents, Biden had the support of 39% to Trump’s 36%. In a Trump-Harris election, the numbers didn’t change.

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So as with Biden, the Trump team continues to see support from traditional Democratic groups pushing him over the finish line first in a Trump-Harris election.

“President Trump will beat Kamala Harris and make inroads among African Americans, Hispanics and younger voters,” pollster John McLaughlin said.

He also told Secrets, "The Trump campaign takes nothing for granted and continues to work like an underdog. Kamala Harris shares Joe Biden’s record of failure with even less likeability. In our June national poll among 1,000 likely voters Vice President Harris was losing 28% of African Americans, 41% of Hispanics, 44% of younger voters, and 51% of suburban voters. While Biden was losing to Trump in that poll by 2 points, Harris was losing by 5 points. We’ll take it."