Ahead of state hearings, Duke compromises on natural gas; clean energy advocates criticize timeline

Duke Energy defends its vision for the state’s energy future to the North Carolina Utilities Commission this week as the commission holds hearings on the utility’s carbon plan.

The carbon plan, or integrated resource plan, lays out Duke Energy’s long-term efforts to meet state-mandated clean energy goals. The utility must reduce its carbon emissions by 70% of 2005 levels and reach net zero by 2050, all while maintaining grid reliability and pursuing the least-cost options.

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In a settlement with Public Staff (which represents North Carolina ratepayers in NCUC proceedings), Walmart and the Carolinas Clean Energy Business Association, Duke Energy filings call the 2030 deadline “unachievable” as it “presents unacceptable risks to the reliability of the grid.” The settlement instead endorses a plan that defers that target to 2035.

State law allows for delayed compliance if it is necessary for the stability of the grid, and Duke Energy is pursuing long-lead-time resources such as new nuclear and offshore wind. Both options are endorsed in the settlement.

While the North Carolina Sustainable Energy Association appreciates the company’s good faith effort to pursue offshore wind in particular, Executive Director Matt Abele says he disagrees with Duke’s timeline.

“The carbon compliance dates are truly attainable with the technologies that we currently have available to us today,” he said.

Abele is referring to renewable technologies such as solar, wind, and battery storage, which he believes could be rolled out more quickly than Duke is projecting, particularly in the case of offshore wind.

“It has been generating power over the last 30 years across the world,” Justin Somelofske, regulatory council for NCSEA, said. “We are waiting and knocking on the door to interconnect offshore wind, but we need Duke Energy and the commission to approve the necessary steps to get it in generation.”

The NCSEA argues if the utilities commission sets workable guidelines for how the offshore wind developers, which are already leasing areas off the coast and conducting pre-development studies, can get their power to market and sell to Duke Energy, the state could see offshore wind power connected to the grid well ahead of the 2034 target Duke Energy projects.

“The earlier achievement of those targets means better outcomes for the environment,” Somelofske said. “Better outcomes for the economy of North Carolina and we’re going to be pushing hard for North Carolina to take seriously offshore wind as one of those solutions.”

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The plan described in the settlement includes a large renewable buildout including 6.7 GW of solar and 2.7 GW of battery storage by 2031, 1.2 GW of land-based wind by 2033, a massive expansion of Bad Creek’s pumped storage capacity and 2.4 GW of offshore wind by 2034. It also includes four more natural gas turbines (CTs) and three new combustion cycle (CC) natural gas power plants by 2031, which Duke argues is necessary to balance the renewable buildout.

It’s a slight compromise from the plan Duke Energy filed earlier this year, which called for five new CC power plants. The settlement allows for Duke to reassess the need for the two additional power plants when it files its update to the carbon plan in 2025-2026.

“Only Duke Energy and the Public Staff filed the comprehensive analysis necessary to know whether any proposed plan is feasible,” Duke spokesman Bill Norton said in a statement from the company. “And both agree that new natural gas is required to support our growing economy while protecting affordability and reliability.”

Abele called the continued reliance on natural gas disappointing and argues it could potentially handcuff ratepayers to fuel source that faces price volatility and power plants that will be expensive to run when new EPA power plant rules go into effect. Those rules face an uphill battle as utilities sue to overturn them.

He argues renewables and energy storage which do not need to procure fuel on the market or face operational risks due to climate legislation remain the most cost-effective resources for North Carolina’s energy future.

“Carbon compliance and ratepayer savings are not mutually exclusive ideas,” he said.

NCUC will begin hearings on Wednesday. The utilities commission will make a decision on Duke’s carbon plan by the end of the year.

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