Aaron Rodgers Is Being Criminally Underrated Heading Into 2024 NFL Season

NFL analysts are consistently underrating New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He’s a difficult player to evaluate but he’s fallen too far in several preseason QB rankings.

• The Warren Sharp Football Preview states that the Jets have the 16 ^th best quarterback situation.

• CBSSports.com ranked Rodgers as a Tier 4 (“Intrigue with Question Marks”) starter -- the same level as Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and Kyler Murray.

• NFL Media’s Daniel Jeremiah and Gregg Rosenthal took part in a quarterback draft on the NFL Daily podcast and Rodgers was taken 18th, right after Geno Smith.

• FS1’s Nick Wright placed Rodgers in his Tier 6 (QBs ranked 14-19).

Rodgers is 40 and coming off an Achilles injury that limited him to just four plays last season. Other Hall of Fame quarterbacks have faced similar challenges and come through with surprising late-career success. Physical skills are overrated at quarterback. If they can’t move as well or throw as far, their mental acuity can carry them.

Some recent examples ...

• A 40-year-old Brett Favre left the Jets after one injury-plagued season and reunited with his former quarterback coach Darrell Bevell in Minnesota. Statistically, he had his best season – his 107.2 passer rating was the only time he ever topped 100 in that category. Favre took the Vikings to the 2009 NFC title game, where they lost to the Saints.

• Peyton Manning had spinal fusion surgery at 35 and physically wasn’t the same quarterback ever again. He left Indianapolis for Denver and at 37 he set the NFL record with 55 touchdowns in a season. He took the Broncos to two Super Bowls and won his second championship at 39.

• Joe Montana missed most of the ’91 and ’92 seasons with a serious elbow injury. The 49ers moved on to Steve Young and Montana went to Kansas City. He carried the Chiefs to the AFC championship game at 37 and reached the playoffs both seasons he played in Kansas City.

• Dan Marino tore his Achilles during the ’93 season and came back strong the following year. He finished second in the NFL in passing yards (4,453) and third in TDs (30) to win Comeback Player of the Year. He was just 33, but that was ‘90s medical technology, so it’s likely a similar situation to Rodgers.

Tom Brady doesn’t fit this category exactly because he was healthy, but don’t forget how many people wrote him off after a disappointing final campaign in New England. When he started playing in Tampa Bay, doubt remained. Old man jokes flooded the internet when he held up four fingers in surprise because he didn’t know the previous play was fourth down. He bounced back and won the Super Bowl at 43.

We never see the old-guy comeback coming. While Rodgers doesn’t have the rings of a Brady or Montana, he’s as talented a thrower as any quarterback in league history. His four MVPs rank second all-time behind only Manning’s five. Rodgers’ 103.6 career passer rating is the best of all time, narrowly edging Patrick Mahomes at 103.5.

Rodgers is positioned for success in New York. He knows the system with his buddy Nathaniel Hackett running the offense. The Jets made an effort to address their biggest weakness, adding veteran offensive linemen Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson and drafting tackle Olu Fashanu at No. 10 overall.

Through the years Rodgers has been able to work with all kinds of receivers and the Jets have options. We never got to see it in a real game, but Rodgers appeared to have chemistry with Jets star receiver Garrett Wilson last summer. They brought in former Charger Mike Williams and drafted potential sleeper Malachi Corley out of Western Kentucky in the third round.

Even if Rodgers doesn’t recreate his MVP numbers from three seasons ago, he has an excellent chance to help the team be competitive. The Jets’ defense carried them to seven wins with Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle and Trevor Siemian. A mediocre Rodgers would win more than that motley trio.

The skepticism around Rodgers isn’t as simple as judging an older player coming off an injury. Rodgers has a lot going on off the field. Will his activities be a distraction or are they just noise? Not noise like one of the loud podcasts he goes on, but the fancy economic definition: extraneous factors that affect pricing. Noise, as defined by economists, is the opposite of information – hype and inaccurate data – that leads experts to make bad decisions.

The most dedicated tape-grinding football nerd couldn’t ignore everything going on with the Jets quarterback. No other player goes on Ayahuasca retreats, has multiple theories on aliens and almost joined Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the presidential ticket.

No one who let Rodgers slip in their rankings cited political differences. But bias against Rodgers appears to seep into mainstream coverage. ESPN.com recently put out a list of the top 100 athletes since 2000. Rodgers was at No. 91 — 24 spots lower than James Harden and 39 spots lower than Adrian Beltre. International voters might not have appreciated football. They still ranked Calvin Johnson at 57, J.J. Watt at 58 and Aaron Donald at 20. Fantastic players, but Rodgers’ resume is superior to all three. While no voter would admit it, Rodgers falling this low can’t be about performance.

Pro Football Focus aims to rely on measurable analytics and ignore everything else. It had Rodgers higher than most — the No. 8 overall quarterback. “If he’s fully healthy,” PFF’s Trevor Sikkema wrote, “he has to remain a top-10 quarterback heading into the year. His resume demands it until we see otherwise.”

Ultimately, Rodgers won’t be the 16 ^th or 17th best quarterback in the NFL. That would suggest he’s just average. Nothing about Rodgers is average. If injuries define his season, he’ll end up in the bottom 10. If Rodgers is healthy, he has a real chance to follow in the footsteps of other legendary quarterbacks and have one more run.

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